Result
3:5
24/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.56 | 1.89 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 44 | 22 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 21 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 6.82% (3/44) | 22.73% (5/22) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 19 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 17 | 41 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 77.27% (17/22) | 93.18% (41/44) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/3) | 50% (1/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 50% (1/2) | 100% (3/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 32 | 32 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 50 | 50 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 3)
- 04:16, 0 - 1, Kostilainen S. (G), Sebok B. (A), Knihti F. (A2)
- 06:54, 1 - 1, Peters A. (G), Westerholm Po. (A),
- 15:30, 1 - 2, Olofsson J. (G),
- 16:32, 1 - 3, Knihti F. (G), Sebok B. (A), Maatta R. (A2)
- 16:32, Raanta A. ↓, Salonen D. ↑,
- 2nd Period (0 - 1)
- 02:03, 1 - 4, Viljanen V. (G), Sebok B. (A), Knihti F. (A2)
- 15:33, Nilsson O. (2 min),
- 18:42, Ikonen H. (2 min),
- 19:34, Bednar J. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 1)
- 04:14, Puutio K. (2 min),
- 05:07, Beaucage A. (2 min),
- 06:45, 1 - 5, Nilsson O. (G), Viljanen V. (A), Jarvinen J. (A2)
- 08:02, 2 - 5, Saarela A. (G), Almari N. (A),
- 08:44, 3 - 5, Intonen A. (G), Saarela A. (A), Peters A. (A2)
Chances of winning
Lukko
56.3% | Draw
21.4% | Ässät
22.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukko that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
Lukko - Ässät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.67 ↓
(1.78) |
4.29
(4.29) |
4.16 ↑
(3.64) |
7.4%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 3.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- In this match, Lukko is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 70:35. (average 3.5:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 39:14. (average 3.9:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Ässät?
Lukko has won 21 of their last 32 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ässät won against Lukko?
Ässät has won 11 of their last 32 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lukko - Ässät were as follows:
23.01.2026
Ässät
-
Lukko
2:1
13.12.2025
Lukko
-
Ässät
8:3
12.12.2025
Ässät
-
Lukko
1:5
25.10.2025
Ässät
-
Lukko
3:2
24.10.2025
Lukko
-
Ässät
5:3
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
