Result
0:1
28/09/2025 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 6
- Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Andorra | beIN Sports 1 |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Bulgaria | Nova Sport |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 China | CCTV-5, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free, Ligue 1+ |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 3 |
 Italy | Sky Sport Max |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Kazakhstan | Setanta Sports |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 3 |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 South-america | ESPN 4 South |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5 |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.49 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (363/426) | 82% (303/369) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 1.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 24 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (363/426) | 82% (303/369) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 61% (28/46) | 50% (21/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (117/152) | 73% (52/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (3/24) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.67 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 25% (2/8) | 36% (4/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.95 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.04 | 0.95 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Morton T. ⚽, Tagliafico N. (A),
- 43', Bouaddi A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Tagliafico N. 🟨,
- 69', Mandi A. 🟨,
- 72', Genesio B. 🟥,
- 72', Fofana M. 🟨,
- 74', Correia F. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
- 74', Mukau N. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
- 75', Karabec A. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
- 75', Merah K. ↓, Sulc P. ↑,
- 76', Moreira A. 🟨,
- 79', Bouaddi A. ↓, Igamane H. ↑,
- 83', Sulc P. 🟨,
- 86', Fernandez-Pardo M. 🟨,
- 87', Igamane H. 🟨,
- 90+2', Santos T. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Lille
36.4% | Draw
28.8% | Lyon
34.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lille's form might have worsened.Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+6.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
Lille - Lyon Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.86 ↑
(2.27) |
3.49 ↓
(3.5) |
2.77 ↓
(3.1) |
-0.2%
(4.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Lille - Lyon?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 13 - 48.1%). Lyon will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 37%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 29.3% – 66.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lyon (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 1.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Lille: Alexsandro
(Thigh Injury)
Meunier T.
(Groin Injury)
Toure O.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Lyon: Abner Vinicius
(Groin Injury)
Descamps R.
(Wrist Injury)
Nuamah E.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Lille: Perraud R.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 32:30. (average 1.6:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:13. (average 1.6:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Lille won against Lyon?
Lille has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lyon won against Lille?
Lyon has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lille - Lyon were as follows:
05.04.2025
Lyon
-
Lille
2:1
01.11.2024
Lille
-
Lyon
1:1
06.05.2024
Lille
-
Lyon
3:4
07.02.2024
Lyon
-
Lille
2:1
26.11.2023
Lyon
-
Lille
0:2
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Marseille | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21:7 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | PSG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Lens | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rennes | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11:12 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Lorient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:12 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Nantes | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5:9 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4:12 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Metz | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5:20 | -15 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
