Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Football German Bundesliga Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen
Result
2:2
17/05/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 34
  • Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 4
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
brazilBrazilCaze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping
cameroonCameroonCRTV Sports
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 3, ESPN 5
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 9
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, Free
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, Now Player
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 6
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandEleven Sports 4, Viaplay
portugalPortugalDAZN 2
romaniaRomaniaOrange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima Sport 4
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1, Arena Sport 4, SportKlub 9
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV3
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 5
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.101.39
Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
197
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
73% (245/336)78% (305/393)
Yellow Cards
26
Expected Goals (xG)
3.101.39
xG on target (xGOT)
2.641.71
Total shots
197
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
82
Shots inside the Box
145
Shots outside the Box
42
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
349
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
40
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
73% (245/336)78% (305/393)
Long passes
32% (19/60)37% (22/59)
Passes in final third
57% (74/130)69% (65/94)
Crosses
35% (9/26)40% (2/5)
Expected assists (xA)
1.620.66
Throw-ins
1616
Fouls
1413
Tackles
71% (12/17)70% (7/10)
Duels won
5247
Clearances
1434
Interceptions
129
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.712.64
Goals prevented
-0.290.64

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 25', Grimaldo A. ↓, Arthur ↑,
  • 35', 1 - 0, Nebel P. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
  • 40', Bell S. 🟨,
  • 40', Palacios E. 🟨,
  • 45+7', Garcia A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Hofmann J. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
  • 46', Tella N. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
  • 49', 1 - 1, Schick P. (Pen),
  • 54', 1 - 2, Schick P. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
  • 59', Hincapie P. 🟨,
  • 63', 2 - 2, Burkardt J. (Pen),
  • 68', Arthur 🟨,
  • 68', Alonso X. 🟨,
  • 71', Caci A. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
  • 81', Hanche-Olsen A. 🟨,
  • 84', Tah J. 🟨,
  • 87', Wirtz F. 🟨,
  • 87', Garcia A. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
  • 87', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
  • 90+2', Burkardt J. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
  • 90+2', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 90+2', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,

Chances of winning


Mainz
39.7%		Draw
25.2%		Bayer Leverkusen
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.2% 24.5% 33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8% 25.4% 32.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
  • Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-3%)
    •

    Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.42 ↑
    (2.28)    		 3.79 ↓
    (3.92)    		 2.74 ↓
    (2.89)    		 4.2%
    (4.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    •
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen?
  • Users Predictions: 69 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 47 - 68.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 12 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 14.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 57.1% – 79.1%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1 - Mainz (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • AH 0 - Bayer (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • Bayer is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Jenz M. (Broken nose) Kohr D. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Bayer: Belocian J. (Knee Injury) Hermoso M. (Thigh Injury) Mukiele N. (Muscle Injury) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Zentner R. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bayer: Sarco A. (Thigh Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 22:36. (average 1.1:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:23. (average 1.4:2.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
    14.01.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz 1:0
    23.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz 2:1
    30.09.2023 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 0:3
    19.02.2023 Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz 2:3
    27.08.2022 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 0:3
    Latest results of Mainz
    10.05.2025 Bochum - Mainz 1:4 ✺
    04.05.2025 Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:1 ✺
    26.04.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 3:0 ✺
    19.04.2025 Mainz - Wolfsburg 2:2 ✺
    12.04.2025 Hoffenheim - Mainz 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
    11.05.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund 2:4 ✺
    04.05.2025 Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 ✺
    26.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg 2:0 ✺
    20.04.2025 St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 ✺
    12.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin 0:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union Berlin00000:000
    2Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    3Bayern Munich00000:000
    4Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    5Werder Bremen00000:000
    6Hamburger SV00000:000
    7Wolfsburg00000:000
    8Dortmund00000:000
    9B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    10Hoffenheim00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Freiburg00000:000
    14St. Pauli00000:000
    15Augsburg00000:000
    16Stuttgart00000:000
    17Heidenheim00000:000
    18RB Leipzig00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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