Result
3:4
18/10/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 7
- Referee: Exner F. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP |
 Albania | Tring Sport 3 |
 Angola | Z Sports 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3 |
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 Bulgaria | Nova Sport |
 Canada | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada |
 Chile | Disney+, ESPN Premium |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN 5 |
 Croatia | SportKlub 1 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3, Oneplay |
 Denmark | TV3+, Viaplay |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 3 |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+ |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | Sky Sport Arena |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Maldives | Medianet |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 5 |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 Mongolia | Premier Sports 5 |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2 |
 Portugal | DAZN 3, DAZN / App |
 Romania | Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 8 |
 Singapore | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Slovakia | Sport TV2, Voyo |
 South-america | ESPN 5 South |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 3 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 3.50 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (291/400) | 82% (458/559) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 3.50 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.52 | 2.92 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 18 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 38 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (291/400) | 82% (458/559) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 25% (15/60) | 50% (38/76) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (104/164) | 67% (82/122) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (2/9) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 1.68 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (4/9) | 65% (11/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.92 | 2.52 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.08 | -0.48 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 11', 0 - 1, Grimaldo A. (Pen),
- 24', 0 - 2, Kofane C. M. ⚽, Poku E. (A),
- 30', Henriksen B. 🟨,
- 34', 1 - 2, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽,
- 37', Kohr D. 🟨,
- 45+3', 1 - 3, Grimaldo A. ⚽, Hofmann J. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 65', Veratschnig N. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
- 65', Bell S. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
- 66', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
- 67', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
- 68', Grimaldo A. 🟨,
- 71', 2 - 3, Amiri N. (Pen),
- 78', Hanche-Olsen A. 🟨,
- 78', Poku E. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
- 79', Kofane C. M. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
- 81', Bade L. 🟨,
- 81', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
- 83', Ben Seghir E. 🟨,
- 86', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
- 87', 2 - 4, Terrier M. ⚽,
- 90', 3 - 4, Sieb A. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
- 90+3', Amiri N. 🟨,
- 90+10', Boving W. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mainz
21.4% | Draw
26.9% | Bayer Leverkusen
51.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mainz's form might have worsened.Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bayer Leverkusen's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+12.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-13.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.75 ↑
(2.87) |
5.02 ↑
(3.43) |
2.35 ↓
(2.47) |
-22.7%
(4.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen?
Users Predictions:
46 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 6.5%). Bayer will win (votes: 33 - 71.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 58.7% – 84.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayer Leverkusen will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.
- Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Bayer is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Mainz: Caci A.
(Thigh Injury)
Dal M.
(Knee Injury)
Zentner R.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Bayer: Palacios E.
(Groin Injury)
Sarco A.
(International duty)
Tape A.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Bayer: Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Quansah J.
(Muscle Injury)
Schick P.
(Muscle Injury)
Tella N.
(Knee Injury)
Terrier M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Tillman M.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 22:35. (average 1.1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:22. (average 1.4:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Bayer Leverkusen?
Mainz has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bayer Leverkusen won against Mainz?
Bayer Leverkusen has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
17.05.2025
Mainz
-
Bayer Leverkusen
2:2
14.01.2025
Bayer Leverkusen
-
Mainz
1:0
23.02.2024
Bayer Leverkusen
-
Mainz
2:1
30.09.2023
Mainz
-
Bayer Leverkusen
0:3
19.02.2023
Bayer Leverkusen
-
Mainz
2:3
Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27:4 | 23 | 21 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10:9 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11:6 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Dortmund | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16:11 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Koln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12:10 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:16 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Union Berlin | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Freiburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12:14 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8:12 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Mainz | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8:14 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | B. Monchengladbach | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6:15 | -9 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
