Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
1:1
28/02/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 24
  • Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
angolaAngolaZ Sports 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports 2, Fast Sports
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
brazilBrazilSporTV
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
hungaryHungaryArena 4
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaSony LIV, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 3
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
mexicoMexicoIzzi TV, Sky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaRUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
polandPolandEleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
portugalPortugalDAZN 4, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 5, Arena Sport 3
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3
slovakiaSlovakiaNova Sport 5, Voyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.220.73
Ball possession
66%34%
Total shots
128
Shots on target
54
Big chances
22
Corner kicks
62
Passes
87% (642/738)77% (285/370)
Yellow cards
12
Expected goals (xG)
1.220.73
xG on target (xGOT)
1.881.87
Total shots
128
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
33
Blocked shots
41
Shots inside the box
96
Shots outside the box
32
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
22
Corner kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
2429
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
20
Free kicks
139
Passes
87% (642/738)77% (285/370)
Long passes
51% (23/45)40% (24/60)
Passes in final third
76% (138/182)60% (66/110)
Crosses
9% (2/22)24% (4/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.301.37
Throw ins
3114
Fouls
913
Tackles
83% (10/12)63% (12/19)
Duels won
5541
Clearances
2519
Interceptions
718
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
34
xGOT faced
1.871.88
Goals prevented
0.870.88

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Arthur ↓, Tape A. ↑,
  • 59', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
  • 59', Poku E. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
  • 66', Posch S. 🟨,
  • 66', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
  • 67', 0 - 1, Becker S. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
  • 69', Becker S. ↓, Silas ↑,
  • 72', Fernandez E. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
  • 81', Widmer S. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
  • 82', Palacios E. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
  • 88', 1 - 1, Quansah J. ⚽, Kofane C. (A),
  • 89', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 90+2', Maloney L. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Bayer Leverkusen
55.9%		Draw
23.6%		Mainz
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57.9% 22.3% 19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4% 21% 18.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)
  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
    •

    Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.71 ↑
    (1.64)    		 4.05 ↓
    (4.27)    		 4.69 ↓
    (4.8)    		 4.6%
    (5.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH 0 - Mainz (3.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.75 - Mainz (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Mainz (4.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Mainz (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Mainz (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (42 of 49 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 75.91% – 95.51%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayer Leverkusen will win (10 of 13 users predict this - 76.92%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 18 high ROI users predict this event. Bayer (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Mainz (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 13).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.
    • Recent performances by Bayer have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Mainz is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Bayer: Bade L. (Muscle Injury) Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Lucas (Calf Injury) Tella N. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Injury) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Inactive) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kawasaki S. (Illness) Veratschnig N. (Illness) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bayer: Maza I. (Injury) Tillman M. (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Weiper N. (Illness)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:25. (average 1.9:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz were as follows:
    18.10.2025 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 3:4
    17.05.2025 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2
    14.01.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz 1:0
    23.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz 2:1
    30.09.2023 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 0:3
    Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
    24.02.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus 0:0 ✺
    21.02.2026 Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 ✺
    18.02.2026 Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen 0:2 ✺
    14.02.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 4:0 ✺
    07.02.2026 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Mainz
    20.02.2026 Mainz - Hamburger SV 1:1 ✺
    13.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    07.02.2026 Mainz - Augsburg 2:0 ✺
    31.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺
    24.01.2026 Mainz - Wolfsburg 3:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich27224197:257270
    2Dortmund27187258:283061
    3Stuttgart27165656:362053
    4RB Leipzig27155753:351850
    5Hoffenheim27155754:391550
    6Bayer Leverkusen27137752:361646
    7Eintracht Frankfurt27108950:51-138
    8Freiburg271071039:44-537
    9Union Berlin27871231:46-1531
    10Augsburg27941433:50-1731
    11Mainz27791133:42-930
    12Hamburger SV27791131:40-930
    13B. Monchengladbach27781233:46-1329
    14Werder Bremen27771330:47-1728
    15FC Koln27681338:47-926
    16St. Pauli27661524:44-2024
    17Wolfsburg27561635:57-2221
    18Heidenheim27361827:61-3415

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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