Málaga vs Granada – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

03/05/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga).

LaLiga2 - Round 38
Referee: Cid G. (Esp)
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, GolStadium, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.38	0.48
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
16	7
Shots on target
6	0
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
8	4
Passes
83% (258/312)	79% (235/296)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.38	0.48
xG on target (xGOT)
2.24	0.06
Total shots
16	7
Shots on target
6	0
Shots off target
8	5
Blocked Shots
2	2
Shots inside the Box
11	6
Shots outside the Box
5	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
8	4
Touches in opposition box
26	14
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
21	16
Passes
83% (258/312)	79% (235/296)
Long passes
40% (17/43)	41% (23/56)
Passes in final third
71% (72/102)	53% (38/72)
Crosses
32% (6/19)	38% (6/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.11	0.84
Throw-ins
19	20
Fouls
16	21
Tackles
68% (13/19)	65% (11/17)
Duels won
61	58
Clearances
23	27
Interceptions
6	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	5
xGOT faced
0.06	2.24
Goals prevented
0.06	1.24

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Cordero A. (Pen),
43', Luismi 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hongla M. ↓, Baston B. ↑,
54', Brau M. 🟨,
61', Sanchez D. 🟨,
62', Tsitaishvili G. 🟨,
67', Ruiz S. ↓, Trigueros M. ↑,
72', Sanchez D. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,
72', Luismi ↓, Molina M. ↑,
75', Brau M. ↓, Lama M. ↑,
75', Sanchez R. ↓, Reinier ↑,
75', Rebbach A. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
80', Cordero A. ↓, Puga C. ↑,
86', Lobete J. ↓, Rahmani Y. ↑,
86', Chupe ↓, Dioni ↑,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/2zajcsjd

Chances of winning

Málaga
27.1%

Draw
29.8%

Granada
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

31%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

31.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Granada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Granada's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Málaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Granada than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Granada, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Málaga - Granada Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (2.96)	3.15 ↑ (3.04)	2.19 ↓ (2.54)	6.1% (6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Málaga - Granada?

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Granada will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Granada: 19.1% – 73.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Granada (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0.
Málaga has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Granada is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Málaga: Abaida H. (Hamstring Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Lorenzo D. (Inactive) Ochoa A. (Injury) Pastor A. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Granada: Zidane L. (Ankle Injury)
There are questionable in Málaga: Monte N. (Muscle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:22. (average 0.9:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.3:1.1).

How many head-to-head matches has Málaga won against Granada?

Málaga has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Granada won against Málaga?

Granada has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Málaga - Granada were as follows:

20.09.2024 Granada - Málaga 2:2

27.02.2023 Granada - Málaga 1:0

08.12.2022 Málaga - Granada 1:1

Latest results of Málaga

27.04.2025 Málaga - Castellón 1:0 ✺

21.04.2025 Eibar - Málaga 2:2 ✺

14.04.2025 Huesca - Málaga 1:0 ✺

06.04.2025 Málaga - Córdoba 0:1 ✺

30.03.2025 Real Oviedo - Málaga 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Granada

26.04.2025 Granada - Elche 1:1 ✺

20.04.2025 Cartagena - Granada 2:3 ✺

13.04.2025 Albacete Balompié - Granada 0:2 ✺

05.04.2025 Granada - Almería 3:1 ✺

28.03.2025 Tenerife - Granada 2:1 ✺

Spanish LaLiga2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
2	Eibar	2	1	1	0	4:1	3	4
3	Cadiz CF	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
4	Burgos CF	1	1	0	0	5:1	4	3
5	Racing Santander	1	1	0	0	3:1	2	3
6	Dep. La Coruna	1	1	0	0	3:1	2	3
7	Gijon	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3
8	Real Sociedad B	1	1	0	0	1:0	1	3
9	Leganes	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
10	Albacete	1	0	1	0	4:4	0	1
11	Almeria	1	0	1	0	4:4	0	1
12	Las Palmas	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
13	Malaga	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
14	Huesca	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
15	Andorra	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
16	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0
17	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
18	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
19	Castellon	2	0	0	2	1:4	-3	0
20	Ceuta	1	0	0	1	0:3	-3	0
21	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	1:5	-4	0
22	Granada CF	2	0	0	2	1:6	-5	0

      Promotion ~ LaLiga
      Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation