Arsenal vs Manchester City – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Cup
Result
0:2
22/03/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • EFL Cup - Final
  • Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.641.60
Ball possession
38%62%
Total shots
1010
Shots on target
42
Big chances
33
Corner kicks
33
Passes
78% (258/332)87% (476/546)
Yellow cards
31
Expected goals (xG)
0.641.60
xG on target (xGOT)
0.491.69
Total shots
1010
Shots on target
42
Shots off target
43
Blocked shots
25
Shots inside the box
98
Shots outside the box
12
Hit the woodwork
20
Headed goals
02
Big chances
33
Corner kicks
33
Touches in opposition box
1824
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free kicks
1012
Passes
78% (258/332)87% (476/546)
Long passes
43% (22/51)38% (18/47)
Passes in final third
56% (46/82)77% (110/143)
Crosses
33% (4/12)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.791.88
Throw ins
1814
Fouls
1210
Tackles
62% (13/21)65% (11/17)
Duels won
4458
Clearances
2422
Interceptions
39
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper saves
04
xGOT faced
1.690.49
Goals prevented
-0.310.49

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 16', Hincapie P. 🟨,
  • 32', Khusanov A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 51', Arrizabalaga K. 🟨,
  • 60', 0 - 1, O'Reilly N. ⚽,
  • 64', 0 - 2, O'Reilly N. ⚽, Nunes M. (A),
  • 65', Guardiola P. 🟨,
  • 65', Hincapie P. ↓, Calafiori R. ↑,
  • 66', Havertz K. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
  • 69', White B. 🟨,
  • 82', Trossard L. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
  • 82', White B. ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
  • 90', Cherki R. ↓, Foden P. ↑,

Chances of winning


Arsenal
41.8%		Draw
27.9%		Manchester City
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.2% 28.7% 31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1% 28.1% 30.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
    •

    Arsenal - Manchester City Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.28 ↓
    (2.34)    		 3.41 ↑
    (3.28)    		 3.15 ↑
    (3.02)    		 4.9%
    (6.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Arsenal - Manchester City?
  • Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 14 - 48.3%). Man City will win (votes: 5 - 17.2%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 34.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 30.1% – 66.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - draw (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 2.
    • Arsenal is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Man City has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Arsenal: Merino M. (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Man City: Guehi M. (Inactive) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg)
    • There are questionable in Arsenal: Odegaard M. (Knee Injury) Timber J. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:40. (average 0.9:2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:20. (average 1.1:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Arsenal - Manchester City were as follows:
    21.09.2025 Arsenal - Manchester City 1:1
    02.02.2025 Arsenal - Manchester City 5:1
    22.09.2024 Manchester City - Arsenal 2:2
    31.03.2024 Manchester City - Arsenal 0:0
    08.10.2023 Arsenal - Manchester City 1:0
    Latest results of Arsenal
    17.03.2026 Arsenal - Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 ✺
    14.03.2026 Arsenal - Everton 2:0 ✺
    11.03.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal 1:1 ✺
    07.03.2026 Mansfield Town - Arsenal 1:2 ✺
    04.03.2026 Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal 0:1 ✺
    Latest results of Manchester City
    17.03.2026 Manchester City - Real Madrid 1:2 ✺
    14.03.2026 West Ham United - Manchester City 1:1 ✺
    11.03.2026 Real Madrid - Manchester City 3:0 ✺
    07.03.2026 Newcastle United - Manchester City 1:3 ✺
    04.03.2026 Manchester City - Nottingham Forest 2:2 ✺
    Draw
    Main

    1/64-finals
    1BarrowPreston0 : 1
    2WrexhamHull4 : 3
    3PortsmouthReading1 : 2
    4GillinghamAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
    5BurnleyBye
    6West BromDerby1 : 2
    7CardiffSwindon2 : 1
    8CheltenhamExeter2 : 0
    9WolvesBye
    10ByeWest Ham
    11EvertonBye
    12ChesterfieldMansfield0 : 2
    13TranmereBurton1 : 2
    14HarrogateLincoln1 : 3
    16ByeChelsea
    17BirminghamSheffield Utd2 : 1
    18BlackpoolPort Vale0 : 1
    20ByeArsenal
    21BarnsleyFleetwood3 : 2
    22SalfordRotherham0 : 1
    23Oxford UtdColchester1 : 0
    24ByeBrighton
    25LiverpoolBye
    27WatfordNorwich1 : 2
    28NorthamptonSouthampton0 : 1
    29Crystal PalaceBye
    31NewportMillwall0 : 1
    32CoventryLuton1 : 0
    33NewcastleBye
    35StokeWalsall1 : 0
    36BlackburnBradford City1 : 2
    37TottenhamBye
    39AccringtonPeterborough2 : 1
    40MiddlesbroughDoncaster0 : 4
    41WiganNotts Co1 : 0
    42Stockport CountyCrewe3 : 1
    43BromleyIpswich2 : 1
    44Leyton OrientWycombe0 : 1
    45FulhamBye
    46Bristol CityMK Dons2 : 0
    47Bristol RoversCambridge Utd0 : 2
    48CharltonStevenage3 : 1
    49SwanseaCrawley3 : 1
    50PlymouthQPR3 : 2
    52ByeNottingham
    53SunderlandBye
    54HuddersfieldLeicester3 : 2
    56ByeManchester City
    57BoltonSheffield Wed3 : 4
    58ByeLeeds
    59GrimsbyShrewsbury3 : 1
    60ByeManchester Utd
    61BournemouthBye
    62ByeBrentford
    64ByeAston Villa

    1/32-finals
    1PrestonWrexham2 : 3
    2ReadingAFC Wimbledon2 : 1
    3BurnleyDerby2 : 1
    4CardiffCheltenham3 : 0
    5WolvesWest Ham3 : 2
    6EvertonMansfield2 : 0
    7BurtonLincoln0 : 1
    8ByeChelsea
    9BirminghamPort Vale0 : 1
    10ByeArsenal
    11BarnsleyRotherham2 : 1
    12Oxford UtdBrighton0 : 6
    13LiverpoolBye
    14NorwichSouthampton0 : 3
    15Crystal PalaceBye
    16MillwallCoventry2 : 1
    17NewcastleBye
    18StokeBradford City0 : 3
    19TottenhamBye
    20AccringtonDoncaster0 : 2
    21WiganStockport County1 : 0
    22BromleyWycombe1 : 2
    23FulhamBristol City2 : 0
    24Cambridge UtdCharlton3 : 1
    25SwanseaPlymouth2 : 1
    26ByeNottingham
    27SunderlandHuddersfield1 : 2
    28ByeManchester City
    29Sheffield WedLeeds2 : 1
    30GrimsbyManchester Utd3 : 2
    31BournemouthBrentford0 : 2
    32ByeAston Villa

    1/16-finals
    1WrexhamReading2 : 0
    2BurnleyCardiff1 : 2
    3WolvesEverton2 : 0
    4LincolnChelsea1 : 2
    5Port ValeArsenal0 : 2
    6BarnsleyBrighton0 : 6
    7LiverpoolSouthampton2 : 1
    8Crystal PalaceMillwall2 : 1
    9NewcastleBradford City4 : 1
    10TottenhamDoncaster3 : 0
    11WiganWycombe0 : 2
    12FulhamCambridge Utd1 : 0
    13SwanseaNottingham3 : 2
    14HuddersfieldManchester City0 : 2
    15Sheffield WedGrimsby0 : 1
    16BrentfordAston Villa2 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1WrexhamCardiff1 : 2
    2WolvesChelsea3 : 4
    3ArsenalBrighton2 : 0
    4LiverpoolCrystal Palace0 : 3
    5NewcastleTottenham2 : 0
    6WycombeFulham1 : 2
    7SwanseaManchester City1 : 3
    8GrimsbyBrentford0 : 5

    Quarter-finals
    1CardiffChelsea1 : 3
    2ArsenalCrystal Palace2 : 1
    3NewcastleFulham2 : 1
    4Manchester CityBrentford2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1ChelseaArsenal0 : 1, 2 : 3
    2NewcastleManchester City1 : 3, 0 : 2

    Final
    1ArsenalManchester City0 : 2
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