Result
2:2
01/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Carioca - Relegation Group - Round 5
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.40 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (212/284) | 78% (332/425) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.40 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 1.70 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (212/284) | 78% (332/425) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (25/51) | 28% (15/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (65/101) | 53% (47/88) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 7% (1/15) | 14% (1/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 73% (11/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.70 | 1.41 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.30 | -0.59 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Luan Capanni ⚽, Xandinho (A),
- 14', Luan Capanni 🟨,
- 45+2', Sidney Pages 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Matheus Lira ↓, Bernardo ↑,
- 46', Rafael Carioca ↓, Oliver ↑,
- 57', Almir Silva 🟨,
- 61', Magno Nunes ↓, Rafael Lucas ↑,
- 64', 1 - 1, Oliver ⚽, Marcelo (A),
- 64', Oliver 🟨,
- 65', Luan Capanni ↓, Vini Charopem ↑,
- 66', Sidney Pages ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
- 66', Pedro Thomaz ↓, Leo Rafael ↑,
- 79', Yan Silva ↓, Augusto ↑,
- 83', Joao Pedro 🟨,
- 84', Iago Lacerda ↓, Leo David ↑,
- 90+1', Magno Souza ↓, Fernandes L. B. ↑,
- 90+2', Pablo Thomaz ↓, Valdenilson ↑,
- 90+2', 2 - 1, Valdenilson ⚽,
- 90+4', 2 - 2, Augusto ⚽,
- 90+4', Fernandes L. B. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Maricá
30.9% | Draw
29.5% | Nova Iguaçu
39.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Maricá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)The chances for Nova Iguaçu have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maricá than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
Maricá - Nova Iguaçu Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.97 ↓
(2.99) |
3.1 ↓
(3.16) |
2.31 ↓
(2.34) |
9.1%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Maricá - Nova Iguaçu?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maricá won 4.
- The current form of both teams is below expectations.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Maricá won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.5:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Maricá won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Maricá won against Nova Iguaçu?
Maricá has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nova Iguaçu won against Maricá?
Nova Iguaçu has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Maricá - Nova Iguaçu were as follows:
16.02.2026
Nova Iguaçu
-
Maricá
0:1
12.07.2025
Nova Iguaçu
-
Maricá
1:3
03.05.2025
Maricá
-
Nova Iguaçu
1:1
22.01.2025
Maricá
-
Nova Iguaçu
2:0
Latest results of Nova Iguaçu
Draw
Taca Guanabara - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Bangu | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Vasco | Volta Redonda | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Botafogo RJ | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Madureira | Boavista | 2 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Vasco | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Madureira | 8 : 0, 3 : 0 |
Final
