Result
0:2
03/03/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - 1/16-finals
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| 1st serve percentage |
|---|
| 66% | 59% |
| 1st serve points won |
|---|
| 70% (46/66) | 83% (34/41) |
| 2nd serve points won |
|---|
| 44% (15/34) | 75% (21/28) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 50% (1/2) |
| 1st return points won |
|---|
| 20% (8/41) | 30% (20/66) |
| 2nd return points won |
|---|
| 25% (7/28) | 56% (19/34) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 50% (1/2) | 20% (1/5) |
| Winners |
|---|
| 18 | 37 |
| Unforced errors |
|---|
| 33 | 31 |
| Net points won |
|---|
| 67% (6/9) | 70% (7/10) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 61% (61/100) | 80% (55/69) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 20% (14/69) | 39% (39/100) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 44% (75/169) | 56% (94/169) |
| Last 10 balls |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Match points saved |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Service games won |
|---|
| 92% (11/12) | 92% (11/12) |
| Return games won |
|---|
| 8% (1/12) | 8% (1/12) |
| Total games won |
|---|
| 50% (12/24) | 50% (12/24) |
Chances of winning
Mathys Erhard
43.6% | Joel Schwaerzler
56.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mathys Erhard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mathys Erhard's performance.Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Joel Schwaerzler might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (-2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
Mathys Erhard - Joel Schwaerzler Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.13 ↓
(2.45) |
|
1.66 ↑
(1.49) |
7.3%
(7.8%) | |
What is the prediction for Mathys Erhard - Joel Schwaerzler?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Erhard (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Schwaerzler (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Users Predictions:
Mathys Erhard will win
(7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- Erhard is ranked ATP: 313. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 242.
- In recent matches, Erhard has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Schwaerzler is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Schwaerzler may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Schwaerzler could have a small edge in this match.
- We predict that Schwaerzler will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.
- Recently, the players have not faced each other.
How many head-to-head matches has Mathys Erhard won against Joel Schwaerzler?
Mathys Erhard has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Joel Schwaerzler won against Mathys Erhard?
Joel Schwaerzler has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mathys Erhard - Joel Schwaerzler were as follows:
Latest results of Mathys Erhard
Latest results of Joel Schwaerzler
Draw
Singles - Main1/16-finals| 1 | Trungelliti M. (1) | Johns G. | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Bax F. | Pennaforti G. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | Erhard M. | Schwaerzler J. J. | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Cuenin S. | Kolar Z. (7) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Carballes Baena R. (4) | Kopp S. | 0 : 2 |
| 6 | Cecchinato M. | Ouakaa A. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 7 | Ionel N. D. (Q) | De Krom M. (Q) | 1 : 2 |
| 8 | Pieri S. (Q) | Kym J. (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 9 | Pavlovic L. (8) | Martin Tiffon P. | 2 : 0 |
| 10 | Coulibaly E. | Bouchelaghem C. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 11 | Napolitano S. (Q) | Denolly C. | 2 : 0 |
| 12 | Forejtek J. | Mikrut L. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 13 | Clarke J. (6) | Hemery C. | 1 : 2 |
| 14 | Houkes M. | Nijboer R. (Q) | 0 : 2 |
| 15 | Martin A. | Jianu F. C. | 0 : 2 |
| 16 | Dalla Valle E. (Q) | Gea A. (2) | 0 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Trungelliti M. (1) | Bax F. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Schwaerzler J. J. | Kolar Z. (7) | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Kopp S. | Cecchinato M. | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | De Krom M. | Kym J. (5) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Pavlovic L. (8) | Coulibaly E. | 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Napolitano S. | Mikrut L. (RET.) (3) | 1 : 1 |
| 7 | Hemery C. | Nijboer R. | 2 : 0 |
| 8 | Jianu F. C. | Gea A. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Trungelliti M. (1) | Schwaerzler J. J. | 1 : 2 |
| 2 | Cecchinato M. | Kym J. (RET.) (5) | 0 : 1 |
| 3 | Pavlovic L. (8) | Napolitano S. | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Hemery C. | Gea A. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Schwaerzler J. J. | Cecchinato M. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Napolitano S. | Gea A. (2) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Schwaerzler J. J. | Napolitano S. | 2 : 0 |
