Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Arnaldi – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:2
20/10/2025 at 10:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Vienna, hard - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Aces
512
Double Faults
14
1st Serve Percentage
61%62%
1st Serve Points Won
70% (33/47)82% (36/44)
2nd Serve Points Won
50% (15/30)52% (14/27)
Break Points Saved
78% (7/9)100% (4/4)
1st Return Points Won
20% (9/44)40% (19/47)
2nd Return Points Won
48% (13/27)50% (15/30)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/4)22% (2/9)
Winners
1528
Unforced Errors
1311
Net Points Won
56% (10/18)64% (7/11)
Service Points Won
63% (48/76)69% (49/71)
Return Points Won
31% (22/71)37% (28/76)
Total Points Won
48% (70/147)52% (77/147)
Last 10 Balls
46
Match Points Saved
10
Service Games Won
82% (9/11)100% (11/11)
Return Games Won
0% (0/11)18% (2/11)
Total Games Won
41% (9/22)59% (13/22)

Chances of winning


Aleksandar Kovacevic
38.3%
Matteo Arnaldi
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44% 56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4% 56.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Aleksandar Kovacevic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aleksandar Kovacevic's form might have worsened.
  • Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aleksandar Kovacevic than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aleksandar Kovacevic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Aleksandar Kovacevic - Matteo Arnaldi Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.48
    (2.16)

    1.54
    (1.7)
    5.2%
    (5.1%)
    What is the prediction for Aleksandar Kovacevic - Matteo Arnaldi?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +1.5 Sets - Kovacevic (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 62.24%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Matteo Arnaldi will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Kovacevic (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Arnaldi (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Kovacevic is ranked ATP: 69. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 74.
    • Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Arnaldi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Arnaldi might have a minor edge in this game.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kovacevic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Aleksandar Kovacevic - Matteo Arnaldi were as follows:
    06.03.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic 2:1
    05.08.2023 Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic 2:0
    Latest results of Aleksandar Kovacevic
    Latest results of Matteo Arnaldi
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Altmaier D.2 : 0
    2Machac T.Cobolli F.0 : 2
    3Cerundolo F.Michelsen A.2 : 0
    4Tabilo A.Bublik A. (8)0 : 2
    5De Minaur A. (3)Rodionov J. (WC)2 : 0
    6Ugo Carabelli C.Misolic F. (WC)0 : 2
    7Popyrin A.Berrettini M.0 : 2
    8Norrie C.Rublev A. (7)2 : 1
    9Medvedev D. (6)Borges N.2 : 1
    10Dzumhur D. (Q)Moutet C.0 : 2
    11Etcheverry T. M.Budkov Kjaer N. (WC)2 : 0
    12Medjedovic H. (LL)Musetti L. (4)0 : 2
    13Khachanov K. (5)Griekspoor T.1 : 2
    14Darderi L.Nakashima B.0 : 2
    15Kovacevic A. (Q)Arnaldi M. (Q)0 : 2
    16Fearnley J. (Q)Zverev A. (2)1 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Cobolli F.2 : 0
    2Cerundolo F.Bublik A. (8)0 : 2
    3De Minaur A. (3)Misolic F.2 : 0
    4Berrettini M.Norrie C.2 : 1
    5Medvedev D. (6)Moutet C.0 : 2
    6Etcheverry T. M.Musetti L. (4)0 : 2
    7Griekspoor T.Nakashima B.2 : 0
    8Arnaldi M.Zverev A. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bublik A. (8)2 : 0
    2De Minaur A. (3)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    3Moutet C.Musetti L. (4)0 : 2
    4Griekspoor T.Zverev A. (WO.) (2)

    Semi-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)De Minaur A. (3)2 : 0
    2Musetti L. (4)Zverev A. (2)0 : 2

    Final
    1Sinner J. (1)Zverev A. (2)2 : 1