Matteo Arnaldi vs Brandon Nakashima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis ATP Indian Wells Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima
Result
0:2
10/03/2025 at 17:50 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Aces
24
Double Faults
50
1st Serve Percentage
61%73%
1st Serve Points Won
71% (20/28)85% (28/33)
2nd Serve Points Won
22% (4/18)75% (9/12)
Break Points Saved
50% (3/6)100% (1/1)
1st Return Points Won
18% (6/33)29% (8/28)
2nd Return Points Won
25% (3/12)78% (14/18)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/1)50% (3/6)
Winners
1012
Unforced Errors
227
Net Points Won
50% (2/4)90% (9/10)
Service Points Won
57% (32/56)82% (37/45)
Return Points Won
18% (8/45)43% (24/56)
Total Points Won
40% (40/101)60% (61/101)
Last 10 Balls
46
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
67% (6/9)100% (9/9)
Return Games Won
0% (0/9)33% (3/9)
Total Games Won
33% (6/18)67% (12/18)

Chances of winning


Matteo Arnaldi
52.4%
Brandon Nakashima
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.7% 56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5% 57.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.
  • Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brandon Nakashima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-9.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+9.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brandon Nakashima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.82
    (2.18)

    2
    (1.69)
    5%
    (5%)
    What is the prediction for Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima?
  • Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Nakashima will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 43.5%83.7%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 35. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 33.
    • Both players are now playing unstable.
    • Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.
    • Last 3 head-to-head matches Arnaldi won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1.3:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima were as follows:
    14.02.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima 2:0
    08.11.2022 Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima 2:3
    Latest results of Brandon Nakashima
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Bye
    2Kecmanovic M.Griekspoor T.1 : 2
    3Marozsan F.Martinez P.2 : 0
    4ByeMpetshi Perricard G. (29)
    5Machac T. (19)Bye
    6Bublik A.Watanuki Y. (Q)1 : 2
    7Bautista-Agut R.Dzumhur D. (Q)1 : 2
    8ByeTiafoe F. (16)
    9Rune H. (12)Bye
    10Moutet C.Thompson J.2 : 1
    11Munar J.Nishikori K.1 : 2
    12ByeHumbert U. (18)
    13Berrettini M. (28)Bye
    14Carballes Baena R.O'Connell C.1 : 2
    15Seyboth Wild T.Muller A.2 : 1
    16ByeTsitsipas S. (8)
    17Ruud C. (4)Bye
    18Giron M.Basilashvili N. (Q)2 : 0
    19Bergs Z.Quinn E. (Q)2 : 0
    20ByePopyrin A. (26)
    21Fils A. (20)Bye
    22Zhang Z.Diallo G. (LL)1 : 2
    23Safiullin R.Opelka R. (WC)2 : 0
    24ByeMusetti L. (15)
    25Paul T. (10)Bye
    26Boyer T. (WC)Vukic A.2 : 1
    27Norrie C.Nardi L.2 : 0
    28ByeLehecka J. (23)
    29Michelsen A. (31)Bye
    30Smith C. (Q)Cobolli F.2 : 1
    31Bu Y.Basavareddy N. (WC)2 : 0
    32ByeMedvedev D. (5)
    33Rublev A. (7)Bye
    34Arnaldi M.Kovacevic A.2 : 1
    35Shevchenko A.Hijikata R.0 : 2
    36ByeNakashima B. (32)
    37Khachanov K. (22)Bye
    38Etcheverry T. M.Mensik J.0 : 2
    39Navone M.Tien L.2 : 0
    40ByeShelton B. (11)
    41Draper J. (13)Bye
    42Fearnley J.Fonseca J. (WC)1 : 2
    43Bonzi B.Brooksby J. (PR)1 : 2
    44ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (17)
    45Tabilo A. (30)Bye
    46Tu L. (Q)Lajovic D.0 : 2
    47Gigante M. (Q)Baez S.2 : 1
    48ByeFritz T. (3)
    49Djokovic N. (6)Bye
    50Van De Zandschulp B. (LL)Kyrgios N. (RET.) (PR)1 : 0
    51McDonald M. (WC)Davidovich Fokina A.2 : 1
    52ByeCerundolo F. (25)
    53Hurkacz H. (21)Bye
    54Darderi L.Gaston H. (Q)0 : 2
    55Goffin D.Sonego L.2 : 0
    56ByeDe Minaur A. (9)
    57Dimitrov G. (14)Bye
    58Rinderknech A.Borges N.1 : 2
    59Struff J-L.Monfils G.0 : 2
    60ByeKorda S. (24)
    61Shapovalov D. (27)Bye
    62Zeppieri G. (Q)Walton A. (Q)0 : 2
    63Halys Q.Carreno-Busta P. (Q)2 : 0
    64ByeAlcaraz C. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Griekspoor T.1 : 2
    2Marozsan F. (RET.)Mpetshi Perricard G. (29)0 : 1
    3Machac T. (RET.) (19)Watanuki Y.1 : 0
    4Dzumhur D.Tiafoe F. (16)0 : 2
    5Rune H. (12)Moutet C.2 : 0
    6Nishikori K.Humbert U. (18)0 : 2
    7Berrettini M. (28)O'Connell C.2 : 0
    8Seyboth Wild T.Tsitsipas S. (8)0 : 2
    9Ruud C. (4)Giron M.1 : 2
    10Bergs Z.Popyrin A. (26)0 : 2
    11Fils A. (20)Diallo G.2 : 0
    12Safiullin R.Musetti L. (15)1 : 2
    13Paul T. (10)Boyer T.2 : 0
    14Norrie C.Lehecka J. (23)2 : 1
    15Michelsen A. (31)Smith C.2 : 0
    16Bu Y.Medvedev D. (5)0 : 2
    17Rublev A. (7)Arnaldi M.0 : 2
    18Hijikata R.Nakashima B. (32)0 : 2
    19Khachanov K. (22)Mensik J.2 : 1
    20Navone M.Shelton B. (11)0 : 2
    21Draper J. (13)Fonseca J.2 : 0
    22Brooksby J.Auger-Aliassime F. (17)2 : 0
    23Tabilo A. (30)Lajovic D.2 : 0
    24Gigante M.Fritz T. (3)0 : 2
    25Djokovic N. (6)Van De Zandschulp B.1 : 2
    26McDonald M.Cerundolo F. (25)1 : 2
    27Hurkacz H. (21)Gaston H.2 : 0
    28Goffin D.De Minaur A. (9)0 : 2
    29Dimitrov G. (14)Borges N.2 : 0
    30Monfils G.Korda S. (24)2 : 0
    31Shapovalov D. (27)Walton A.2 : 0
    32Halys Q.Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Griekspoor T.Mpetshi Perricard G. (29)2 : 0
    2Watanuki Y.Tiafoe F. (16)2 : 0
    3Rune H. (12)Humbert U. (18)2 : 1
    4Berrettini M. (28)Tsitsipas S. (8)0 : 2
    5Giron M.Popyrin A. (26)2 : 1
    6Fils A. (20)Musetti L. (15)2 : 1
    7Paul T. (10)Norrie C.2 : 0
    8Michelsen A. (RET.) (31)Medvedev D. (5)0 : 0
    9Arnaldi M.Nakashima B. (32)0 : 2
    10Khachanov K. (22)Shelton B. (11)0 : 2
    11Draper J. (13)Brooksby J.2 : 0
    12Tabilo A. (30)Fritz T. (3)1 : 2
    13Van De Zandschulp B.Cerundolo F. (25)0 : 2
    14Hurkacz H. (21)De Minaur A. (9)0 : 2
    15Dimitrov G. (14)Monfils G.2 : 1
    16Shapovalov D. (27)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Griekspoor T.Watanuki Y.2 : 0
    2Rune H. (12)Tsitsipas S. (8)2 : 0
    3Giron M.Fils A. (20)1 : 2
    4Paul T. (10)Medvedev D. (5)0 : 2
    5Nakashima B. (32)Shelton B. (11)0 : 2
    6Draper J. (13)Fritz T. (3)2 : 0
    7Cerundolo F. (25)De Minaur A. (9)2 : 0
    8Dimitrov G. (14)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Griekspoor T.Rune H. (12)1 : 2
    2Fils A. (20)Medvedev D. (5)1 : 2
    3Shelton B. (11)Draper J. (13)0 : 2
    4Cerundolo F. (25)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Rune H. (12)Medvedev D. (5)2 : 0
    2Draper J. (13)Alcaraz C. (2)2 : 1

    Final
    1Rune H. (12)Draper J. (13)0 : 2