Mazatlan vs Chivas Guadalajara – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara
Result
1:1
11/04/2025 at 23:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Clausura - Round 15
  • Referee: Gomez H. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Fox Sports, FOX Sports Premium
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
usaUsaTUDN

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.550.79
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
1311
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
112
Passes
82% (288/350)75% (247/328)
Yellow Cards
47
Red Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
1.550.79
xG on target (xGOT)
1.351.47
Total shots
1311
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
67
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
112
Touches in opposition box
2010
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1818
Passes
82% (288/350)75% (247/328)
Long passes
48% (23/48)39% (21/54)
Passes in final third
70% (88/126)71% (54/76)
Crosses
31% (8/26)63% (5/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.820.50
Fouls
1818
Tackles
83% (10/12)64% (14/22)
Duels won
5552
Clearances Total
922
Interceptions
109
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
1.471.35
Goals prevented
0.470.35

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 16', 0 - 1, Wilke T. , Alvarado R. (A),
  • 36', Samir Caetano 🟨,
  • 43', Gutierrez E. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Rey L. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Amarilla L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Moreno Villegas O. F. , Lainez M. ,
  • 46', Intriago J. , Sierra J. ,
  • 46', Samir Caetano , Almada F. ,
  • 64', Padilla Y. , Beltran F. ,
  • 68', Pizarro R. , Adame G. ,
  • 81', Wilke T. , Gonzalez A. ,
  • 82', Diaz J. , Rodriguez S. ,
  • 83', Rey L. 🟨,
  • 85', Pulido A. 🟨,
  • 86', Pulido A. , Delgadillo D. ,
  • 86', Alvarado R. 🟨,
  • 86', Alvarado R. , Gonzalez F. ,
  • 90+1', Rangel R. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Rangel R. 🟥,
  • 90+4', 1 - 1, Amarilla L. (Pen),
  • 90+6', Colula B. 🟨,
  • 90+9', Benedetti N. 🟨,
  • 90+12', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Mazatlan
29.6%
Draw
29.9%
Chivas Guadalajara
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.3% 27.5% 32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8% 26.5% 31%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mazatlan's form might have worsened.
  • Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chivas Guadalajara's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (+12.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mazatlan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-9.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chivas Guadalajara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.19
    (2.33)
    3.12
    (3.41)
    2.31
    (2.91)
    6.7%
    (6.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mazatlan will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Guadalajara will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Guadalajara: 13.8%69.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Mazatlan (votes: 1 - 50%). Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 12).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Mazatlan won 1.
    • Recent matches Mazatlan is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Guadalajara is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Guadalajara will have a mini benefit in this match.
    • There will not play in Mazatlan: Barcenas Y. (Knee Injury) Esquivel J. (Muscle Injury) Sanchez L. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Guadalajara: Castillo J. (Thigh Injury) Romo L. (Red Card) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury) Tapias M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • Last 11 head-to-head matches Mazatlan won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11:21 (average 1:1.9).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Mazatlan won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.3:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara were as follows:
    20.07.2024 Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan 2:0
    16.02.2024 Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara 2:2
    26.09.2023 Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan 1:3
    16.12.2022 Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan 1:0
    Latest results of Mazatlan
    28.03.2025 Mazatlan - Atlas 3:2
    14.03.2025 Querétaro - Mazatlan 1:0
    08.03.2025 Pachuca - Mazatlan 1:1
    28.02.2025 Mazatlan - Cruz Azul 1:1
    Latest results of Chivas Guadalajara
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Pachuca33007:259
    2Toluca320110:736
    3Tigres UANL22005:326
    4Monterrey32014:406
    5Cruz Azul31207:435
    6Club America31205:325
    7Necaxa31115:504
    8Mazatlan FC31112:204
    9Atlas31117:8-14
    10Club Tijuana31113:4-14
    11Santos Laguna31025:503
    12Guadalajara Chivas21014:403
    13Atl. San Luis31024:5-13
    14Puebla31024:5-13
    15UNAM Pumas31024:6-23
    16Club Leon31022:5-33
    17Juarez30212:3-12
    18Queretaro30031:6-50

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