Result
0:1
01/03/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 24
- Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 6 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3 |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Georgia | Setanta Sports 2 |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | FOX One |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.88 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (492/552) | 75% (230/306) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.88 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (492/552) | 75% (230/306) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 61% (19/31) | 44% (30/68) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 84% (168/200) | 54% (43/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (9/44) | 17% (1/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.48 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (13/22) | 56% (14/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 65 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 43 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.22 | 0.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.78 | 0.86 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Guindo D. 🟥,
- 26', Dina Ebimbe J. ↓, Locko B. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Munongo B. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
- 51', Tsitaishvili G. 🟨,
- 52', Diaz Jr. M. 🟨,
- 59', Sarr B. ↓, Kvilitaia G. ↑,
- 67', Sane S. 🟨,
- 69', 0 - 1, Ajorque L. ⚽, Chardonnet B. (A),
- 74', Doumbia K. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
- 76', Colin M. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
- 76', Toure A. ↓, Mbala N. ↑,
- 81', Traore B. ↓, Mboula U. ↑,
- 83', Del Castillo R. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Metz
28.4% | Draw
28.2% | Brest
43.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Metz - Brest Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.36 ↑
(3.2) |
3.4 ↓
(3.4) |
2.2 ↑
(2.19) |
4.7%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Metz - Brest?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Brest (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Brest will win
(20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Brest will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Brest (votes: 7 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1.
- Metz has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Brest has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Brest could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J.
(Knee Injury)
Stambouli B.
(Injury)
Sy P.
(Concussion)
- There will not play in Brest: Balde M.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Metz: Hein G.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Brest: Diaz Jr. M.
(Inactive)
Labeau Lascary R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Metz won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Metz won against Brest?
Metz has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Brest won against Metz?
Brest has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Metz - Brest were as follows:
23.11.2025
Brest
-
Metz
3:2
07.04.2024
Brest
-
Metz
4:3
10.12.2023
Metz
-
Brest
0:1
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 58:22 | 36 | 60 |
| 2 | Lens | 27 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 54:24 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Marseille | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 54:35 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Lyon | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 47 |
| 5 | Lille | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 42:34 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Monaco | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Rennes | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 43:37 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43:33 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38:32 | 6 | 37 |
| 10 | Lorient | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 37:41 | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Brest | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 34:39 | -5 | 36 |
| 12 | Angers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 32 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 32:43 | -11 | 31 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 22:35 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 | Nice | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:52 | -20 | 27 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 22:36 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Nantes | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:45 | -21 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 25:60 | -35 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
