Mia Ristic vs Darya Astakhova – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:0
22/02/2026 at 02:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Antalya - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Match Stats

Aces
00
Double Faults
23
1st serve percentage
72%66%
1st serve points won
60% (31/52)48% (15/31)
2nd serve points won
55% (11/20)38% (6/16)
Break Points Saved
80% (8/10)29% (2/7)
1st return points won
52% (16/31)42% (22/52)
2nd return points won
63% (10/16)45% (9/20)
Break Points Converted
71% (5/7)20% (2/10)
Service Points Won
58% (43/74)45% (21/47)
Return Points Won
55% (26/47)42% (31/74)
Total Points Won
57% (69/121)43% (52/121)
Last 10 balls
82
Match points saved
00
Service games won
78% (7/9)38% (3/8)
Return games won
63% (5/8)22% (2/9)
Total games won
71% (12/17)29% (5/17)

Chances of winning


Mia Ristic
37.3%
Darya Astakhova
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.4% 49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9% 44.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mia Ristic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mia Ristic's form might have worsened.
  • Darya Astakhova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Darya Astakhova's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mia Ristic than the current prediction. (+18.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mia Ristic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darya Astakhova than the current prediction. (-18.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Darya Astakhova, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Mia Ristic - Darya Astakhova Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.51
    (1.83)

    1.49
    (1.86)
    7.1%
    (8.4%)
    Preview Facts
    • Ristic is ranked WTA: 273. Astakhova is ranked WTA: 380.
    • Recent form of Ristic has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Astakhova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Astakhova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Mia Ristic
    Latest results of Darya Astakhova
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Oliynykova O. (1)Kudermetova P.2 : 1
    2Rame A. (RET.)Toth A. K. (Alt)1 : 1
    3Riera J.Zolotareva A. (Q)1 : 2
    4Maristany G.Sherif M. (5)0 : 2
    5Uchijima M. (3)Kawa K.2 : 0
    6Oz I. (WC)Gasanova A.0 : 2
    7Pigossi L.Shymanovich I. (LL)1 : 2
    8Papamichail D.Bronzetti L. (8)2 : 0
    9Erjavec V. (6)Yoruk I. (WC)2 : 0
    10Romero Gormaz L.Spiteri D. (Q)2 : 1
    11Brancaccio N.Kumru A. (WC)2 : 0
    12Monnet C.Udvardy P. (4)0 : 2
    13Rus A. (7)Janicijevic S.0 : 2
    14Lachinova A. (WC)Gorgodze E.0 : 2
    15Kalinina A.Ibragimova A. (Q)2 : 1
    16Zavatska K. (Q)Grabher J. (RET.) (2)0 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Oliynykova O. (1)Toth A. K.1 : 2
    2Zolotareva A.Sherif M. (5)0 : 2
    3Uchijima M. (3)Gasanova A.2 : 0
    4Shymanovich I.Papamichail D.1 : 2
    5Erjavec V. (6)Romero Gormaz L.2 : 0
    6Brancaccio N.Udvardy P. (4)2 : 1
    7Janicijevic S.Gorgodze E.0 : 2
    8Kalinina A.Zavatska K.2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Toth A. K.Sherif M. (5)1 : 2
    2Uchijima M. (3)Papamichail D.2 : 0
    3Erjavec V. (6)Brancaccio N.2 : 1
    4Gorgodze E.Kalinina A.0 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Sherif M. (5)Uchijima M. (3)1 : 2
    2Erjavec V. (6)Kalinina A.0 : 2

    Final
    1Uchijima M. (3)Kalinina A.2 : 0