Atlético Mineiro vs Mirassol – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol
Result
1:0
27/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 25
  • Referee: Klein R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.181.13
Ball Possession
30%70%
Total shots
1124
Shots on target
55
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
411
Passes
76% (194/256)90% (519/575)
Yellow Cards
43
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
1.181.13
xG on target (xGOT)
1.250.45
Total shots
1124
Shots on target
55
Shots off target
210
Blocked Shots
49
Shots inside the Box
614
Shots outside the Box
510
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
411
Touches in opposition box
928
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
811
Passes
76% (194/256)90% (519/575)
Long passes
38% (24/63)58% (18/31)
Passes in final third
58% (49/84)83% (185/222)
Crosses
11% (1/9)29% (13/45)
Expected assists (xA)
0.511.27
Throw-ins
1121
Fouls
118
Tackles
60% (9/15)71% (15/21)
Duels won
3954
Clearances
416
Interceptions
124
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
54
xGOT faced
0.451.25
Goals prevented
0.450.25

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 9', 1 - 0, Vitor Hugo , Rony (A),
  • 31', Edson Carioca , Cristian Renato ,
  • 41', Yago Felipe 🟨,
  • 44', Alonso J. 🟥,
  • 45', Sampaoli J. 🟨,
  • 45+1', Bernard , Roman I. ,
  • 45+4', Igor Gomes 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Yago Felipe , Alesson ,
  • 60', Negueba , Carlos Eduardo ,
  • 60', Neto Moura , Shaylon ,
  • 63', Igor Gomes , Gustavo Scarpa ,
  • 64', Biel , Guilherme Arana ,
  • 68', Everson 🟨,
  • 73', Rony , Junior Santos ,
  • 73', Caio Paulista , Gabriel Menino ,
  • 79', Gabriel , Guilherme ,
  • 82', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
  • 90+1', Danielzinho 🟨,
  • 90+3', Hulk 🟨,
  • 90+7', Alesson 🟨,

Chances of winning


Atlético Mineiro
50.5%
Draw
27.9%
Mirassol
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.9% 28.7% 23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5% 28.5% 23.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
  • Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
  • Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
    (1.95)
    3.55
    (3.25)
    4.66
    (4)
    2.8%
    (7.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Mirassol will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 35.9%97.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In recent matches, Atlético MG has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Mirassol is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Mirassol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Atlético MG is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Ankle Injury) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Mirassol: PH (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mirassol: Chico (Injury) Da Silva (Injury) Guilherme (Injury) Matheus Sales (Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Atlético MG won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol were as follows:
    26.04.2025 Mirassol - Atlético Mineiro 2:2
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Latest results of Mirassol
    21.09.2025 Mirassol - Juventude 2:0
    17.09.2025 Botafogo RJ - Mirassol 3:3
    13.09.2025 Grêmio - Mirassol 0:1
    31.08.2025 Mirassol - Bahia 5:1
    24.08.2025 Fortaleza - Mirassol 0:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet