Result
1:0
17/01/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 3
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, PlayPlus, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.33 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (380/440) | 89% (394/443) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 0.07 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 7 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (380/440) | 89% (394/443) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (48/72) | 81% (39/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (97/127) | 68% (42/62) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (6/25) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.25 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (5/7) | 83% (15/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 9 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.07 | 1.58 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.07 | 0.58 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 21', Abel Ferreira 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Gomez G. ↓, Benedetti ↑,
- 54', Shaylon 🟨,
- 57', Bruno Rodrigues ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
- 57', Vitor Roque ↓, Riquelme Fillipi ↑,
- 59', Eduardo ↓, Jose Aldo ↑,
- 59', Shaylon ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
- 62', Joao Victor 🟨,
- 72', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Sosa R. (A),
- 73', Yuri Lara ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
- 73', Alesson ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
- 77', Arthur Gabriel ↓, Piquerez J. ↑,
- 77', Luis Pacheco ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 78', Carlos Miguel 🟨,
- 79', Neto Moura ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
- 83', Renato Marques 🟨,
- 90+3', Reinaldo 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
57.9% | Draw
26% | Mirassol
16.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palmeiras's form might have worsened.Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirassol's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Palmeiras - Mirassol Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.61 ↑
(1.33) |
3.6 ↓
(4) |
5.71 ↓
(8.3) |
7.6%
(12.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Mirassol?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Mirassol will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mirassol will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.
- Palmeiras is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Mirassol has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Palmeiras is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson
(Injury)
Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Jefte
(Inactive)
Lucas Evangelista
(Hamstring Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
Torres F.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Mirassol: Edson Carioca
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Mirassol: Negueba
(Inactive)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.9:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Mirassol?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mirassol won against Palmeiras?
Mirassol has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Mirassol were as follows:
09.11.2025
Mirassol
-
Palmeiras
2:1
16.07.2025
Palmeiras
-
Mirassol
1:1
23.02.2025
Mirassol
-
Palmeiras
2:3
24.02.2024
Palmeiras
-
Mirassol
3:1
01.02.2023
Mirassol
-
Palmeiras
0:2
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Mirassol
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
