Result
28:32
11/10/2025 at 10:35 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Top 14 - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | Canal+ Live 5 |
 United-kingdom | FloSports app |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Tries |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Conversion Goals |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Conversion Goal Attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Penalty Goal Attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goals % |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Dropped Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Total Runs |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Metres Run With Ball |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (7 - 26)
- 5', Hulleu N. (Try),
- 5', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
- 7', Staniforth T. 🟥,
- 14', Hulleu N. (Try),
- 24', Durand T. (Try),
- 24', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
- 32', Chabouni T. (Try),
- 33', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
- 36', Papalii A. 🟨,
- 39', Tuculet S. (Try),
- 39', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (21 - 6)
- 51', Viiga T. 🟥,
- 62', Maurouard J. (Try),
- 62', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
- 66', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
- 70', Mouchous B. (Try),
- 71', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
- 74', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
- 77', Seyrolle L. (Try),
- 77', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
Chances of winning
Montauban
37.4% | Draw
4.2% | Castres
58.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Montauban has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)Castres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montauban than the current prediction. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castres than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
Montauban - Castres Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.51 ↓
(2.67) |
22.33 ↑
(15) |
1.57 ↑
(1.51) |
8.1%
(10.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 55.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)
What is the prediction for Montauban - Castres?
Users Predictions:
Montauban will win
(15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Montauban will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 26:30.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Top 14 (Relegation) and 10).
- Montauban is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Castres has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Castres is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Montauban won against Castres?
Montauban has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Castres won against Montauban?
Castres has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Montauban - Castres were as follows:
Latest results of Montauban
Latest results of Castres
French Top 14 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Stade Toulousain | 18 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 730:365 | 67 |
| 2 | Section Paloise | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 558:477 | 55 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 561:390 | 53 |
| 4 | Clermont | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 596:467 | 51 |
| 5 | Bordeaux Begles | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 591:483 | 50 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 513:448 | 49 |
| 7 | RC Toulonnais | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 465:536 | 45 |
| 8 | Racing 92 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 514:558 | 45 |
| 9 | Castres Olympique | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 431:501 | 42 |
| 10 | Stade Rochelais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 551:487 | 41 |
| 11 | Lyon | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 521:502 | 39 |
| 12 | Aviron Bayonnais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 467:595 | 36 |
| 13 | USA Perpignan | 18 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 344:511 | 18 |
| 14 | Montauban | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 338:860 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Top 14 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Pro D2
