Result
11/10/2025 at 10:35 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Top 14 - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | Canal+ Live 5 |
 United-kingdom | FloSports app |
Chances of winning
Montauban
33.3% | Draw
4.7% | Castres
61.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Montauban has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montauban than the current prediction. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Montauban - Castres Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.81 ↑
(2.67) |
18 ↑
(15) |
1.46 ↓
(1.51) |
9.7%
(10.3%) | |
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)
What is the prediction for Montauban - Castres?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Montauban (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Montauban will win
(9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is .
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Top 14 (Relegation) and 10).
- Montauban has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Castres has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Castres might have a minor edge in this game.
- In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Montauban won against Castres?
Montauban has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Castres won against Montauban?
Castres has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Montauban - Castres were as follows:
Latest results of Montauban
Latest results of Castres
French Top 14 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 144:148 | 16 |
| 2 | Stade Francais Paris | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 150:118 | 15 |
| 3 | Bordeaux Begles | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 165:134 | 14 |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 164:133 | 14 |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 108:81 | 14 |
| 6 | Section Paloise | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 135:123 | 14 |
| 7 | Montpellier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 143:102 | 13 |
| 8 | Racing 92 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 138:130 | 13 |
| 9 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 134:134 | 13 |
| 10 | Castres Olympique | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 107:125 | 11 |
| 11 | Stade Rochelais | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 96:84 | 10 |
| 12 | Clermont | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 205:169 | 10 |
| 13 | Montauban | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 119:249 | 2 |
| 14 | USA Perpignan | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 66:144 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Top 14 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Pro D2
