Result
26:31
17/01/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Challenge Cup - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4 |
 United-kingdom | BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, S4C |
 World | EPCR Rugby TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Tries |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Conversion goals |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Conversion goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Penalty goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Penalty goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goals % |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Dropped goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Total runs |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Metres run with ball |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (14 - 21)
- 7', Masibaka A. (Try),
- 7', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
- 12', Watkin O. (Try),
- 13', Walsh J. (Conversion Goal),
- 22', Ducros J. (Try),
- 23', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
- 36', Masibaka A. (Try),
- 37', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
- 40+1', Lloyd L. (Try),
- 40+2', Walsh J. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (12 - 10)
- 53', Lloyd L. (Try),
- 54', Walsh J. (Conversion Goal),
- 59', Moriarty R. (Try),
- 67', Hounkpatin W. (Try),
- 68', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
- 80+1', Coly L. (Penalty Goal),
Chances of winning
Ospreys
41.5% | Draw
5.6% | Montpellier
52.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ospreys's form might have worsened.Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (+16.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ospreys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-14.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Ospreys - Montpellier Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.07 ↑
(1.68) |
19.43 ↓
(21) |
1.99 ↓
(2.23) |
-11.9%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 51.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
What is the prediction for Ospreys - Montpellier?
Users Predictions:
1 users predict this event. Ospreys will win (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 28:24.
Preview Facts
- Ospreys has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Montpellier is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Montpellier may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Montpellier has had a series of home games.
- Ospreys is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- We predict that Ospreys will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 76:136. (average 19:34).
- Including home match between the teams, Ospreys won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 35:29.
How many head-to-head matches has Ospreys won against Montpellier?
Ospreys has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Montpellier won against Ospreys?
Montpellier has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ospreys - Montpellier were as follows:
14.12.2024
Montpellier
-
Ospreys
59:15
17.12.2023
Montpellier
-
Ospreys
38:5
14.01.2023
Ospreys
-
Montpellier
35:29
17.12.2022
Montpellier
-
Ospreys
10:21
Latest results of Ospreys
Latest results of Montpellier
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Ulster | Ospreys | 28 : 24 |
| 2 | Newcastle Red Bulls | Stade Rochelais | 18 : 26 |
| 3 | Benetton | Cardiff Rugby | 38 : 35 |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs | Munster | 31 : 21 |
| 5 | Montpellier | USA Perpignan | 53 : 13 |
| 6 | Connacht | Sharks | 29 : 12 |
| 7 | Zebre | Section Paloise | 31 : 15 |
| 8 | Stade Francais Paris | Dragons | 31 : 36 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Ulster | Stade Rochelais | 41 : 24 |
| 2 | Benetton | Exeter Chiefs | 41 : 44 |
| 3 | Montpellier | Connacht | 45 : 22 |
| 4 | Zebre | Dragons | 32 : 35 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Ulster | Exeter Chiefs | |
| 2 | Montpellier | Dragons | |
Final
