Mushuc Runa vs Orense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/05/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Bellavista (Ambato).

Liga Pro - Round 13
Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)
Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.40	2.10
Ball Possession
39%	61%
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
5	6
Big Chances
3	3
Corner Kicks
7	2
Passes
63% (120/190)	81% (267/328)
Yellow Cards
4	4
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40	2.10
xG on target (xGOT)
1.58	3.08
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
5	6
Shots off target
7	2
Blocked Shots
3	4
Shots inside the Box
8	5
Shots outside the Box
7	7
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
3	3
Corner Kicks
7	2
Touches in opposition box
25	15
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	0
Free Kicks
11	14
Passes
63% (120/190)	81% (267/328)
Long passes
42% (25/59)	41% (23/56)
Passes in final third
57% (60/106)	79% (62/78)
Crosses
23% (6/26)	20% (2/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.50	1.22
Throw-ins
23	7
Fouls
14	11
Tackles
56% (5/9)	53% (8/15)
Duels won
42	45
Clearances
13	41
Interceptions
5	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3
xGOT faced
3.08	1.58
Goals prevented
-1.92	-0.42

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Miranda B. ⚽, Caicedo E. (A),
23', Arce L. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
29', Penilla C. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Olinick A. ⚽, Velasco P. (A),
32', Caicedo B. 🟨,
43', 1 - 2, Parrales M. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
44', 2 - 2, Caicedo E. ⚽, Alonso M. (A),
45+3', Achilier G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
49', Tapiero S. 🟨,
50', 2 - 3, Velasco P. ⚽,
58', Alonso M. ↓, Mancilla Quinones J. L. ↑,
58', Gracia A. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
60', 2 - 4, Herrera A. ⚽, Parrales M. (A),
65', 2 - 5, Parrales M. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
70', Penilla C. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
74', Olinick A. ↓, Vasquez S. ↑,
74', Parrales M. ↓, Mejia M. ↑,
85', Molina N. ↓, Quinonez B. ↑,
89', Mena A. ↓, Armas D. ↑,
89', Herrera A. ↓, Coronel D. ↑,
90+3', Mina G. 🟨,
90+4', Bentaberry B. 🟨,
90+4', Velasco P. 🟨,
90+5', Vasquez S. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Mushuc Runa
53.1%

Draw
27.1%

Orense
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

26.7%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

26%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Mushuc Runa - Orense Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.83)	3.43 ↓ (3.49)	4.69 ↑ (4.2)	7.4% (7.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - Orense?

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mushuc Runa will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 3.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Mushuc Runa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Mushuc Runa is seen as the favorite.
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 1.4:0.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.5:0.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Orense?

Mushuc Runa has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against Mushuc Runa?

Orense has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - Orense were as follows:

05.03.2025 Mushuc Runa - Orense 2:1

22.09.2024 Mushuc Runa - Orense 3:0

05.04.2024 Orense - Mushuc Runa 2:2

10.11.2023 Orense - Mushuc Runa 1:0

03.06.2023 Mushuc Runa - Orense 3:1

Latest results of Mushuc Runa

13.05.2025 Unión Santa Fe - Mushuc Runa 0:1 ✺

10.05.2025 Manta - Mushuc Runa 2:1 ✺

07.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro 1:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará 4:3 ✺

27.04.2025 SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Orense

09.05.2025 Orense - Deportivo Cuenca 1:0 ✺

04.05.2025 Delfín - Orense 0:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Orense - Independiente del Valle 1:2 ✺

20.04.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense 2:0 ✺

14.04.2025 Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil 3:1 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	27	17	8	2	50:20	30	59
2	Barcelona SC	27	14	5	8	40:32	8	47
3	LDU Quito	27	12	9	6	42:26	16	45
4	Dep. Cuenca	27	12	7	8	32:26	6	43
5	U. Catolica	27	11	9	7	51:35	16	42
6	Libertad	27	11	9	7	40:34	6	42
7	Orense	27	12	6	9	31:31	0	42
8	Aucas	27	11	5	11	36:39	-3	38
9	Emelec	27	10	8	9	26:30	-4	38
10	EL Nacional	27	9	7	11	32:35	-3	34
11	Macara	27	7	10	10	26:28	-2	31
12	Delfin	27	6	11	10	25:40	-15	29
13	Manta	27	5	10	12	31:45	-14	25
14	Tecnico U	27	6	7	14	24:41	-17	25
15	Vinotinto	27	6	6	15	29:38	-9	24
16	Mushuc Runa ✔	27	6	5	16	30:45	-15	23

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )