Result
3:1
13/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 28
- Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.24 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (206/295) | 76% (273/358) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (206/295) | 76% (273/358) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (25/64) | 41% (20/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (51/96) | 59% (45/76) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (1/6) | 5% (1/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 0.30 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 82% (9/11) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.16 | 1.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.84 | -1.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 11', 1 - 0, Caicedo B. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
- 24', Caicedo B. 🟨,
- 45+2', Penilla C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Arce L. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
- 69', 1 - 1, Penilla C. ⚽, Peralta K. (A),
- 72', Burgoa V. ↓, Luna R. ↑,
- 76', Peralta K. 🟨,
- 79', Burbano R. ↓, Charcopa J. ↑,
- 82', 2 - 1, Herrera A. ⚽, Caicedo B. (A),
- 86', Bianchi O. ↓, Mina S. ↑,
- 90', 3 - 1, Luna R. ⚽, Herrera A. (A),
- 90+2', Caicedo B. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
- 90+2', Vasquez S. ↓, Quinonez B. ↑,
- 90+2', Herrera A. ↓, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↑,
- 90+2', Bentaberry B. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
- 90+2', Gracia A. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
- 90+11', Molina N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Orense
55.3% | Draw
27.6% | Mushuc Runa
17.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orense's performance.Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mushuc Runa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-10.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orense that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+10.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mushuc Runa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Orense - Mushuc Runa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.72 ↓
(2.1) |
3.45 ↑
(3.25) |
5.74 ↑
(3.3) |
4.6%
(8.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Orense - Mushuc Runa?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Orense (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Orense will win
(6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, Orense is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against Mushuc Runa?
Orense has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Orense?
Mushuc Runa has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orense - Mushuc Runa were as follows:
17.05.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
Orense
2:5
05.03.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
Orense
2:1
22.09.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
Orense
3:0
05.04.2024
Orense
-
Mushuc Runa
2:2
10.11.2023
Orense
-
Mushuc Runa
1:0
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 55:23 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC ✔ | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 46:33 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | LDU Quito ✔ | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:31 | 17 | 51 |
| 4 | U. Catolica | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 58:39 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Orense | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 47 |
| 6 | Libertad | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 42:36 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 35:29 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Emelec ✔ | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 42 |
| 9 | Aucas ✔ | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38:41 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 | Macara ✔ | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 32:30 | 2 | 38 |
| 11 | EL Nacional ✔ | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 32:46 | -14 | 34 |
| 12 | Delfin | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 26:42 | -16 | 31 |
| 13 | Tecnico U | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 26:46 | -20 | 28 |
| 14 | Vinotinto | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 34:43 | -9 | 27 |
| 15 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 38:50 | -12 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta ✔ | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 34:53 | -19 | 26 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
LDU Quito is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Emelec is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
Manta is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
