Result
1:1
13/07/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 20
- Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
Peru | Zapping Sports |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.63 | 0.73 |
Ball Possession |
---|
65% | 35% |
Total shots |
---|
12 | 14 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
11 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
83% (348/421) | 76% (175/231) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.63 | 0.73 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.55 | 0.25 |
Total shots |
---|
12 | 14 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
6 | 4 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
1 | 7 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
9 | 6 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
3 | 8 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
11 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
22 | 17 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
10 | 12 |
Passes |
---|
83% (348/421) | 76% (175/231) |
Long passes |
---|
56% (38/68) | 40% (19/48) |
Passes in final third |
---|
62% (68/109) | 61% (51/84) |
Crosses |
---|
20% (6/30) | 33% (4/12) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.44 | 0.47 |
Throw-ins |
---|
23 | 15 |
Fouls |
---|
12 | 10 |
Tackles |
---|
77% (10/13) | 50% (7/14) |
Duels won |
---|
40 | 47 |
Clearances |
---|
19 | 33 |
Interceptions |
---|
5 | 12 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 4 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.25 | 1.55 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.75 | 0.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Burbano R. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
- 52', 1 - 0, Lugo J. (Pen),
- 53', Gomez L. 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 1, Dos Santos J. ⚽, Verges J. (A),
- 66', Larotonda C. ↓, Julio M. ↑,
- 75', Verges J. ↓, Arce J. ↑,
- 79', Ibarra R. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
- 84', Dos Santos J. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
- 87', Arce J. 🟨,
- 90', Monti R. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vinotinto 36.6% | Draw 28.1% | Mushuc Runa 35.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)The chances for Mushuc Runa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+2%)
Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.51 ↓ (2.52) |
3.27 ↑ (3.2) |
2.62 ↑ (2.58) |
8.5% (9.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vinotinto: 23.1% – 88.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Vinotinto (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- Vinotinto has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Mushuc Runa has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Mushuc Runa?
Vinotinto has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Vinotinto?
Mushuc Runa has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa were as follows:
14.03.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
Vinotinto
1:2
Latest results of Vinotinto
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Ind. del Valle | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 39:19 | 20 | 43 |
2 | LDU Quito | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 38:21 | 17 | 40 |
3 | Barcelona SC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 33:26 | 7 | 38 |
4 | Dep. Cuenca | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 26:20 | 6 | 34 |
5 | Orense | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 34 |
6 | Libertad | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 31:26 | 5 | 33 |
7 | Aucas | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 28:26 | 2 | 32 |
8 | U. Catolica | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 34:28 | 6 | 28 |
9 | Delfin | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 20:29 | -9 | 26 |
10 | Emelec | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 16:24 | -8 | 25 |
11 | EL Nacional | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 24 |
12 | Vinotinto | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 26:29 | -3 | 23 |
13 | Manta | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 27:34 | -7 | 23 |
14 | Macara | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 19:21 | -2 | 22 |
15 | Mushuc Runa | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 24:38 | -14 | 17 |
16 | Tecnico U | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19:33 | -14 | 16 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )