Vinotinto vs Mushuc Runa – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

29/11/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 6
Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)
Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.31	0.42
Ball Possession
58%	42%
Total shots
9	5
Shots on target
2	2
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
7	5
Passes
85% (319/375)	79% (213/271)
Yellow Cards
2	0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31	0.42
xG on target (xGOT)
0.29	0.45
Total shots
9	5
Shots on target
2	2
Shots off target
4	2
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
6	1
Shots outside the Box
3	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
7	5
Touches in opposition box
20	14
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
14	16
Passes
85% (319/375)	79% (213/271)
Long passes
49% (27/55)	48% (29/61)
Passes in final third
62% (54/87)	58% (45/77)
Crosses
24% (7/29)	17% (3/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.06	0.88
Throw-ins
20	13
Fouls
16	14
Tackles
71% (12/17)	85% (11/13)
Duels won
43	42
Clearances
18	32
Interceptions
3	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
0.45	0.29
Goals prevented
0.45	0.29

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Hernandez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hernandez E. ↓, Nardelli G. ↑,
46', Bentaberry B. ↓, Mancilla Quinones J. L. ↑,
61', Ushina K. 🟨,
68', Gomez L. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
74', Burbano R. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
80', Penilla C. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
80', Melo A. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
86', Ibarra R. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
90+1', Peralta K. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,

Chances of winning

Vinotinto
15.2%

Draw
24.7%

Mushuc Runa
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.1%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.9%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mushuc Runa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+20.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-24.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.85 ↑ (2.61)	3.87 ↑ (3.21)	1.73 ↓ (2.66)	0.6% (7.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +0.25, 1st Half - Mushuc Runa (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1 - Vinotinto (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Vinotinto (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Mushuc Runa (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mushuc Runa will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mushuc Runa will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Vinotinto (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Mushuc Runa (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Vinotinto is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Mushuc Runa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Mushuc Runa is seen as the favorite.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
Including home match between the teams, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Mushuc Runa?

Vinotinto has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Vinotinto?

Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa were as follows:

18.10.2025 Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto 2:1

13.07.2025 Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa 1:1

14.03.2025 Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto 1:2

Latest results of Vinotinto

22.11.2025 Manta - Vinotinto 3:1 ✺

09.11.2025 Técnico Universitario - Vinotinto 1:1 ✺

02.11.2025 Vinotinto - Manta 2:0 ✺

26.10.2025 Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario 1:2 ✺

18.10.2025 Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Mushuc Runa

22.11.2025 Mushuc Runa - Técnico Universitario 1:0 ✺

08.11.2025 Manta - Mushuc Runa 3:0 ✺

01.11.2025 Técnico Universitario - Mushuc Runa 0:0 ✺

25.10.2025 Mushuc Runa - Manta 1:1 ✺

18.10.2025 Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto 2:1 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
2	Macara	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4
3	Delfin	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
4	Libertad	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
5	Dep. Cuenca	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
6	Barcelona SC	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
7	LDU Quito	2	1	0	1	2:3	-1	3
8	Aucas	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
9	Mushuc Runa	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2
10	Leones del Norte	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2
11	U. Catolica	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
12	Orense	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
13	Tecnico U	2	0	1	1	1:2	-1	1
14	Guayaquil City	2	0	1	1	1:3	-2	1
15	Manta	2	0	0	2	0:3	-3	0
16	Emelec	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	-2

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