Result
1:1
13/07/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 20
- Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.73 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (348/421) | 76% (175/231) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.55 | 0.25 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (348/421) | 76% (175/231) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (38/68) | 40% (19/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (68/109) | 61% (51/84) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (6/30) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.44 | 0.47 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 50% (7/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.25 | 1.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.75 | 0.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Burbano R. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
- 52', 1 - 0, Lugo J. (Pen),
- 53', Gomez L. 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 1, Dos Santos J. ⚽, Verges J. (A),
- 66', Larotonda C. ↓, Julio M. ↑,
- 75', Verges J. ↓, Arce J. ↑,
- 79', Ibarra R. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
- 84', Dos Santos J. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
- 87', Arce J. 🟨,
- 90', Monti R. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vinotinto
36.6% | Draw
28.1% | Mushuc Runa
35.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)The chances for Mushuc Runa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+2%)
Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.51 ↓
(2.52) |
3.27 ↑
(3.2) |
2.62 ↑
(2.58) |
8.5%
(9.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vinotinto: 23.1% – 88.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Vinotinto (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- Vinotinto has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Mushuc Runa has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Mushuc Runa?
Vinotinto has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Vinotinto?
Mushuc Runa has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa were as follows:
14.03.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
Vinotinto
1:2
Latest results of Vinotinto
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 53:21 | 32 | 62 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 43:26 | 17 | 48 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 47 |
| 4 | Orense | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 45 |
| 5 | U. Catolica | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 52:36 | 16 | 43 |
| 6 | Dep. Cuenca | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 32:26 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | Libertad | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 40:35 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | Aucas | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36:39 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Emelec | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 26:30 | -4 | 38 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Macara | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26:28 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | Delfin | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 | Manta | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 31:45 | -14 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 24:41 | -17 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 30:41 | -11 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 31:48 | -17 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
