Result
1:0
01/03/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 24
- Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 6, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 3 |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | FOX One, Fox Sports |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 3 |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 6, Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 0.20 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 73% | 27% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (513/603) | 63% (142/225) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 0.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (513/603) | 63% (142/225) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (40/63) | 39% (24/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (106/159) | 40% (20/50) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (4/19) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 0.09 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 39 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 65% (15/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.35 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 17', Kaba M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 62', Leroux L. ↓, Coquelin F. ↑,
- 63', El Arabi Y. ↓, Abline M. ↑,
- 63', Machado D. ↓, Tabibou D. ↑,
- 63', Correia F. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
- 63', Santos T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
- 74', Haraldsson H. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
- 74', Perrin G. ↓, Giroud O. ↑,
- 74', Ganago I. ↓, Cabella R. ↑,
- 76', Andre B. 🟨,
- 76', Giroud O. 🟨,
- 81', Kaba M. ↓, Sissoko I. ↑,
- 81', Mukau N. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
- 90+4', 1 - 0, Ngoy N. ⚽, Meunier T. (A),
- 90+5', Ngoy N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Lille
64.1% | Draw
21.8% | Nantes
14.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-8.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lille that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+2%)
Lille - Nantes Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.49 ↑
(1.44) |
4.38 ↓
(4.43) |
6.73 ↓
(6.87) |
4.8%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Lille - Nantes?
Users Predictions:
35 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 29 - 82.9%). Nantes will win (votes: 4 - 11.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 70.4% – 95.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Lille (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Nantes (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lille will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Lille (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Nantes (votes: 1 - 11.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.
- Lille has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Nantes is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Lille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Lille is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Lille: Igamane H.
(Knee Injury)
Mbappe E.
(Thigh Injury)
Sahraoui O.
(Injury)
Toure O.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Nantes: Amian K.
(Suspended)
- There are questionable in Lille: Alexsandro
(Calf Injury)
Caillard M.
(Injury)
Meunier T.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 14 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 33:12. (average 1.7:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:5. (average 1.9:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Lille won against Nantes?
Lille has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nantes won against Lille?
Nantes has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lille - Nantes were as follows:
19.10.2025
Nantes
-
Lille
0:2
15.03.2025
Nantes
-
Lille
1:0
04.01.2025
Lille
-
Nantes
1:1
12.05.2024
Nantes
-
Lille
1:2
20.08.2023
Lille
-
Nantes
2:0
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 53:19 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | Lens | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 45:21 | 24 | 53 |
| 3 | Lyon | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 39:26 | 13 | 45 |
| 4 | Marseille | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 51:33 | 18 | 43 |
| 5 | Lille | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 37:31 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Rennes | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38:35 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Monaco | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 40:36 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 35 |
| 9 | Brest | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 32:34 | -2 | 33 |
| 10 | Lorient | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 34:38 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 33:28 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Angers | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 22:30 | -8 | 29 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 20:30 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
| 15 | Nice | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 30:44 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19:35 | -16 | 18 |
| 17 | Nantes | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 22:41 | -19 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 24 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22:53 | -31 | 13 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
