Result
1:1
21/02/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 24
- Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3 |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Canada | Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1 |
 France | DAZN France |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | Nova Sports 2 |
 Hong-kong | myTV SUPER |
 India | Eurosport, JioTV app |
 Indonesia | Kompas TV, Vidio |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Japan | U-NEXT |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2 |
 Nigeria | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Polsat Sport Premium 2 |
 Portugal | DAZN 3, DAZN / App |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 7 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1, Sport TV2 |
 South-africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 Spain | GolStadium |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+ |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+ |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Onefootball, Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.16 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (325/414) | 80% (347/433) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.16 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 1.81 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (325/414) | 80% (347/433) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (29/65) | 37% (23/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (61/88) | 66% (95/145) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 24% (5/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 1.40 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 67% (12/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.81 | 1.64 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.81 | 0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 23', Bounida R. 🟨,
- 39', 1 - 0, Godts M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 57', 1 - 1, Nejasmic D. ⚽,
- 63', Lebreton N. 🟨,
- 64', Onal B. ↓, El Kachati Y. ↑,
- 64', Linssen B. ↓, Danilo Pereira ↑,
- 65', Dolberg K. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
- 65', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
- 65', Wijndal O. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
- 69', Sandler P. ↓, Fonville D. ↑,
- 77', Regeer Y. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
- 84', Bounida R. ↓, Berghuis S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ajax
52.9% | Draw
22.7% | NEC Nijmegen
24.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)NEC Nijmegen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Ajax - NEC Nijmegen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.79 ↑
(1.78) |
4.16 ↑
(4.02) |
3.87 ↓
(3.88) |
5.8%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Ajax - NEC Nijmegen?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Nijmegen will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 54.1% – 91.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Nijmegen (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Nijmegen (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Nijmegen (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Ajax (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ajax will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Ajax (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Nijmegen (votes: 3 - 42.9%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2.
- In recent matches, Ajax has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Nijmegen is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Nijmegen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Ajax is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Ajax: Zinchenko O.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Nijmegen: Entius F.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 51:21. (average 2.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:14. (average 2.7:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against NEC Nijmegen?
Ajax has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has NEC Nijmegen won against Ajax?
NEC Nijmegen has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ajax - NEC Nijmegen were as follows:
20.12.2025
NEC Nijmegen
-
Ajax
2:2
11.05.2025
Ajax
-
NEC Nijmegen
0:3
01.12.2024
NEC Nijmegen
-
Ajax
1:2
18.02.2024
Ajax
-
NEC Nijmegen
2:2
03.12.2023
NEC Nijmegen
-
Ajax
1:2
Latest results of NEC Nijmegen
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 27 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 77:34 | 43 | 68 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 60:39 | 21 | 52 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 67:45 | 22 | 49 |
| 4 | Ajax | 27 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 52:34 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Twente | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 45:29 | 16 | 44 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 47:42 | 5 | 42 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 47:44 | 3 | 40 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 |
| 10 | Groningen | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 37:37 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | Sittard | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 42:50 | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 45:43 | 2 | 32 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 36:52 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 30:46 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 28:46 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Telstar | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 35:45 | -10 | 24 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 28:48 | -20 | 23 |
| 18 | Heracles | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 32:69 | -37 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
