Result
35:12
16/01/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Challenge Cup - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, S4C Digital, S4C |
 World | EPCR Rugby TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Tries |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Conversion goals |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Conversion goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Penalty goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Penalty goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goals % |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Dropped goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Total runs |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Metres run with ball |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (7 - 12)
- 31', Dyer R. (Try),
- 32', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
- 35', Benitez Cruz S. (Try),
- 37', Wade C. (Try),
- 38', Grayson E. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (28 - 0)
- 47', Hodgson J. 🟨,
- 48', Coghlan B. (Try),
- 50', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
- 55', Dyer R. (Try),
- 56', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
- 69', Gordon T. 🟨,
- 70', (Penalty Try),
- 70', Parsons R. 🟨,
- 78', Richards D. (Try),
- 79', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
Chances of winning
Newport Gwent Dragons
60.5% | Draw
4.4% | Newcastle Red Bulls
35% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newport Gwent Dragons's performance.Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle Red Bulls might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport Gwent Dragons than the current prediction. (-16.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newport Gwent Dragons that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+16.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle Red Bulls could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.52 ↓
(1.93) |
20.88 ↓
(20.91) |
2.64 ↑
(1.93) |
8.5%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 46.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)
What is the prediction for Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 47.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Newport Gwent Dragons will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newport Gwent Dragons will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 25:22.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- We predict that Dragons will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 146:179. (average 20.9:25.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Dragons won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 57:75. (average 19:25).
How many head-to-head matches has Newport Gwent Dragons won against Newcastle Red Bulls?
Newport Gwent Dragons has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Newcastle Red Bulls won against Newport Gwent Dragons?
Newcastle Red Bulls has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls were as follows:
15.12.2024
Newcastle Red Bulls
-
Newport Gwent Dragons
14:22
Latest results of Newport Gwent Dragons
Latest results of Newcastle Red Bulls
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Ulster | Ospreys | 28 : 24 |
| 2 | Newcastle Red Bulls | Stade Rochelais | 18 : 26 |
| 3 | Benetton | Cardiff Rugby | 38 : 35 |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs | Munster | 31 : 21 |
| 5 | Montpellier | USA Perpignan | 53 : 13 |
| 6 | Connacht | Sharks | 29 : 12 |
| 7 | Zebre | Section Paloise | 31 : 15 |
| 8 | Stade Francais Paris | Dragons | 31 : 36 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Ulster | Stade Rochelais | 41 : 24 |
| 2 | Benetton | Exeter Chiefs | 41 : 44 |
| 3 | Montpellier | Connacht | 45 : 22 |
| 4 | Zebre | Dragons | 32 : 35 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Ulster | Exeter Chiefs | |
| 2 | Montpellier | Dragons | |
Final
