Lille vs Olympique Marseille – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1
Football French Ligue 1 Lille - Olympique Marseille
Result
1:1
04/05/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 32
  • Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 4
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1, Pickx+ Sports 1, Pickx+ Sports 1, VOOsport World 1
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaQQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay, V Sport 2
franceFranceDAZN 1, DAZN France
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Deutsch
greeceGreeceSKAI
indiaIndiaGXR World
israelIsrael5 STARS Israel
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kosovoKosovoART Sport 3
mexicoMexicoCaliente TV App, Caliente TV, Disney+
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
portugalPortugalSport TV4
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 4
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Premium
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 3
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.461.17
Ball Possession
40%60%
Total shots
513
Shots on target
16
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
25
Passes
86% (353/411)91% (548/605)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.461.17
xG on target (xGOT)
0.371.22
Total shots
513
Shots on target
16
Shots off target
32
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
311
Shots outside the Box
22
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
25
Touches in opposition box
525
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
50
Free Kicks
89
Passes
86% (353/411)91% (548/605)
Long passes
42% (15/36)68% (32/47)
Passes in final third
65% (47/72)80% (121/151)
Crosses
17% (1/6)11% (2/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.340.65
Throw-ins
1415
Fouls
98
Tackles
65% (11/17)75% (12/16)
Duels won
3033
Clearances
266
Interceptions
29
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
50
xGOT faced
1.220.37
Goals prevented
0.13-0.63

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 29', Bennacer I. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Bennacer I. ↓, Rongier V. ↑,
  • 46', Akpom Ch. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
  • 57', 0 - 1, Gouiri A. ⚽, Rabiot A. (A),
  • 65', Ismaily 🟨,
  • 66', Ismaily ↓, Gudmundsson G. ↑,
  • 66', Bentaleb N. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
  • 72', Haraldsson H. ↓, Bakker M. ↑,
  • 73', Garcia U. 🟨,
  • 75', 1 - 1, Fernandez-Pardo M. ⚽, David J. (A),
  • 80', Alexsandro 🟨,
  • 85', Garcia U. ↓, Merlin Q. ↑,
  • 90', Luis Henrique ↓, Rowe J. ↑,

Chances of winning


Lille
40.9%		Draw
28.1%		Olympique Marseille
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
39.3% 28.7% 32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9% 29.8% 33.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
    •

    Lille - Olympique Marseille Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.33 ↓
    (2.43)    		 3.41 ↑
    (3.33)    		 3.08 ↑
    (2.97)    		 4.7%
    (4.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Lille - Olympique Marseille?
  • Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 16 - 37.2%). Marseille will win (votes: 14 - 32.6%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 30.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 22.8% – 51.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Lille (votes: 2 - 25%). Marseille (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.
    • Lille is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Marseille's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Lille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Lille: Diakite B. (Red Card) Gomes A. (Back Injury) Mbappe E. (Muscle Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Zhegrova E. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Marseille: Blanco R. (Ankle Injury) Mbemba Ch. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Marseille: Luiz Felipe (Eye injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 1.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.6:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lille - Olympique Marseille were as follows:
    14.01.2025 Olympique Marseille - Lille 1:2
    14.12.2024 Olympique Marseille - Lille 1:1
    05.04.2024 Lille - Olympique Marseille 3:1
    04.11.2023 Olympique Marseille - Lille 0:0
    20.05.2023 Lille - Olympique Marseille 2:1
    Latest results of Lille
    27.04.2025 Angers - Lille 0:2 ✺
    20.04.2025 Lille - Auxerre 3:1 ✺
    12.04.2025 Toulouse - Lille 1:2 ✺
    05.04.2025 Lyon - Lille 2:1 ✺
    30.03.2025 Lille - Lens 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Olympique Marseille
    27.04.2025 Olympique Marseille - Brest 4:1 ✺
    19.04.2025 Olympique Marseille - Montpellier 5:1 ✺
    12.04.2025 Monaco - Olympique Marseille 3:0 ✺
    06.04.2025 Olympique Marseille - Toulouse 3:2 ✺
    29.03.2025 Reims - Olympique Marseille 3:1 ✺
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Marseille860221:71418
    2PSG852116:8817
    3Strasbourg851217:10716
    4Lens851212:7516
    5Lyon850311:8315
    6Lille842216:10614
    7Monaco842217:13414
    8Toulouse841315:12313
    9Rennes825111:12-111
    10Nice832312:14-211
    11Paris FC931514:17-310
    12Brest823314:1409
    13Nantes92347:10-39
    14Lorient822412:19-78
    15Auxerre82157:12-57
    16Le Havre813410:16-66
    17Angers81344:12-86
    18Metz80265:20-152

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

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