Alianza Valledupar vs Once Caldas – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

15/08/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar).

Primera A - Clausura - Round 7
Referee: Moncada A. (Col)
Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.78	0.31
Ball Possession
51%	49%
Total shots
20	9
Shots on target
6	2
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
8	4
Passes
83% (287/345)	83% (280/337)
Yellow Cards
2	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78	0.31
xG on target (xGOT)
1.02	0.07
Total shots
20	9
Shots on target
6	2
Shots off target
10	4
Blocked Shots
4	3
Shots inside the Box
12	4
Shots outside the Box
8	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
8	4
Touches in opposition box
23	16
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
13	12
Passes
83% (287/345)	83% (280/337)
Long passes
55% (24/44)	53% (25/47)
Passes in final third
67% (64/96)	81% (87/108)
Crosses
36% (9/25)	8% (1/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.46	0.37
Throw-ins
14	20
Fouls
13	13
Tackles
60% (9/15)	87% (13/15)
Duels won
41	44
Clearances
14	31
Interceptions
5	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	6
xGOT faced
0.07	1.02
Goals prevented
0.07	1.02

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Saldana L. 🟨,
45+2', Mejia R. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Manjarres R. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
55', Gil M. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
57', Moreno K. 🟨,
64', Gomez P. ↓, Valencia Y. ↑,
64', Quinones D. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
65', Munoz J. ↓, Perez Balcazar J. E. ↑,
65', Del Valle A. ↓, Lucumi C. ↑,
76', Mosquera F. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
79', Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↓, Cubides S. ↑,
86', Castano J. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/yd9p9n9z

Chances of winning

Alianza Valledupar
49.1%

Draw
28.4%

Once Caldas
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

29.9%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

30.5%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Valledupar's performance.

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Alianza Valledupar - Once Caldas Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.13)	3.32 ↑ (3.13)	4.28 ↑ (3.56)	6.3% (7.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar - Once Caldas?

Users Predictions: Alianza Valledupar will win (31 of 37 users predict this - 83.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.9% – 95.66%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Alianza Valledupar will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 15 and 19).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 4.
Alianza is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Once Caldas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Alianza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Once Caldas has had a series of home games.
In this match, Alianza is seen as the favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 1.2:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.2:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Valledupar won against Once Caldas?

Alianza Valledupar has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Alianza Valledupar?

Once Caldas has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Valledupar - Once Caldas were as follows:

02.03.2025 Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar 1:2

05.10.2024 Alianza Valledupar - Once Caldas 1:0

25.03.2024 Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar 1:0

25.09.2023 Alianza Valledupar - Once Caldas 2:1

18.04.2023 Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar 1:2

Latest results of Alianza Valledupar

08.08.2025 Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar 3:0 ✺

03.08.2025 Alianza Valledupar - Atlético Bucaramanga 1:3 ✺

27.07.2025 Fortaleza CEIF - Alianza Valledupar 2:2 ✺

22.07.2025 Alianza Valledupar - Deportes Tolima 0:1 ✺

19.07.2025 Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pereira 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Once Caldas

12.08.2025 Once Caldas - Huracán Buenos Aires 1:0 ✺

09.08.2025 Once Caldas - Rionegro Águilas 1:1 ✺

03.08.2025 Deportivo Pereira - Once Caldas 2:1 ✺

30.07.2025 Once Caldas - Patriotas 6:0 ✺

26.07.2025 Once Caldas - Junior Barranquilla 2:2 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bucaramanga	14	8	3	3	25:12	13	27
2	Junior	13	7	4	2	26:16	10	25
3	Fortaleza	14	6	7	1	19:13	6	25
4	Ind. Medellin	12	7	3	2	24:17	7	24
5	Atl. Nacional	13	6	5	2	22:15	7	23
6	Deportes Tolima	13	6	2	5	16:12	4	20
7	Santa Fe	13	5	5	3	15:11	4	20
8	Dep. Cali	14	5	5	4	19:19	0	20
9	Alianza	13	5	4	4	16:16	0	19
10	Llaneros	14	5	4	5	11:13	-2	19
11	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16:16	0	16
12	Pereira	14	3	6	5	12:14	-2	15
13	U. Magdalena	14	4	3	7	17:24	-7	15
14	America De Cali	13	3	5	5	10:11	-1	14
15	Aguilas	13	3	5	5	16:19	-3	14
16	Millonarios	13	4	2	7	14:19	-5	14
17	Envigado	14	2	7	5	11:14	-3	13
18	Chico	13	2	5	6	10:21	-11	11
19	La Equidad	13	2	5	6	7:18	-11	11
20	Dep. Pasto	13	2	4	7	12:18	-6	10

Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )