Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German DFB Pokal
Result
2:4 ET
29/10/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals
  • Referee: Ittrich P. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 3
brazilBrazilDisney+
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 1, Oneplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
franceFranceNew World TV
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 2, Sky Sport 6, Sky Sport 7, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
hungaryHungarySport 1
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
israelIsraelSport 3
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3, ART Sport 6
macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 35 Sports
malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Go, Astro Grandstand, Sooka
mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN 2
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
norwayNorwayVG+
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandEleven Sports 3
portugalPortugalDAZN 2, DAZN / App
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1
spainSpainGol Play, GolStadium
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-arab-emiratesUnited-arab-emiratesAbu Dhabi Sports 1
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.393.77
Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
1828
Shots on target
413
Big Chances
16
Corner Kicks
66
Passes
78% (345/444)89% (704/792)
Yellow Cards
32
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
1.393.77
xG on target (xGOT)
1.143.92
Total shots
1828
Shots on target
413
Shots off target
910
Blocked Shots
55
Shots inside the Box
1218
Shots outside the Box
610
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
16
Corner Kicks
66
Touches in opposition box
2436
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
04
Free Kicks
1117
Passes
78% (345/444)89% (704/792)
Long passes
44% (31/71)56% (28/50)
Passes in final third
56% (56/100)78% (142/183)
Crosses
40% (8/20)43% (9/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.943.63
Throw-ins
1728
Fouls
1711
Tackles
90% (26/29)60% (12/20)
Duels won
6265
Clearances
2337
Interceptions
149
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
82
xGOT faced
3.921.14
Goals prevented
-0.08-0.86

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 43', Garcia A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
  • 46', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
  • 58', Gotze F. 🟥,
  • 60', 0 - 1, Grimaldo A. ⚽,
  • 61', Worner M. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
  • 66', Arthur ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
  • 66', Belocian J. ↓, Quansah J. ↑,
  • 73', Copado L. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
  • 73', Hansen M. ↓, Marino S. ↑,
  • 73', Bilbija F. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
  • 82', Andrich R. 🟨,
  • 83', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
  • 84', Engelns L. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
  • 90', 1 - 1, Marino S. ⚽, Obermair R. (A),
  • Extra Time (1 - 3)
  • 96', Kettemann R. 🟨,
  • 96', 2 - 1, Michel S. ⚽, Batzner N. (A),
  • 106', 2 - 2, Quansah J. ⚽, Poku E. (A),
  • 108', Obermair R. 🟨,
  • 110', Marino S. 🟨,
  • 119', Baur M. 🟨,
  • 120+2', 2 - 3, Maza I. ⚽, Kofane C. M. (A),
  • 120+4', 2 - 4, Garcia A. ⚽,

Chances of winning


Paderborn
22.2%		Draw
23.9%		Bayer Leverkusen
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
16.2% 18.1% 65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6% 16.7% 60.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paderborn's performance.
  • Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayer Leverkusen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayer Leverkusen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.25 ↓
    (5.8)    		 3.91 ↓
    (5.2)    		 1.76 ↑
    (1.43)    		 5.9%
    (6.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Bayer will win (votes: 15 - 88.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 72.9% – 100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Bayer (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Paderborn (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 2 - 50%). Bayer (votes: 2 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 1.
    • Paderborn is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Bayer is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Paderborn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Bayer has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1.3:2.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
    06.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen - Paderborn 3:1
    21.07.2023 Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen 2:1
    Latest results of Paderborn
    25.10.2025 Dynamo Dresden - Paderborn 1:2 ✺
    18.10.2025 Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld 4:3 ✺
    03.10.2025 Eintracht Braunschweig - Paderborn 1:2 ✺
    27.09.2025 Paderborn - Kaiserslautern 2:0 ✺
    20.09.2025 Hertha Berlin - Paderborn 0:2 ✺
    Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
    26.10.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg 2:0 ✺
    21.10.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint-Germain 2:7 ✺
    18.10.2025 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 3:4 ✺
    04.10.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin 2:0 ✺
    01.10.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven 1:1 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/32-finals
    1EngersEintracht Frankfurt0 : 5
    2RW EssenDortmund0 : 1
    3Viktoria KolnPaderborn1 : 3
    4GrossaspachBayer Leverkusen0 : 4
    5DelmenhorstB. Monchengladbach2 : 3
    6MeuselwitzKarlsruher SC0 : 5
    7NorderstedtSt. Pauli0 : 1
    8Hansa RostockHoffenheim0 : 4
    9FC GuterslohUnion Berlin0 : 5
    10Arminia BielefeldWerder Bremen1 : 0
    11RegensburgFC Koln1 : 2
    12WehenBayern Munich2 : 3
    13CottbusHannover1 : 0
    14SandhausenRB Leipzig2 : 4
    15IllertissenNurnberg4 : 3
    16SaarbruckenMagdeburg1 : 3
    17BahlingerHeidenheim0 : 5
    18PirmasensHamburger SV1 : 2
    19HemelingenWolfsburg0 : 9
    20FC 08 HomburgHolstein Kiel0 : 2
    21HallescherAugsburg0 : 2
    22BFC DynamoBochum1 : 3
    23SG Dynamo DresdenMainz0 : 1
    24BraunschweigStuttgart4 : 5
    25Preussen MunsterHertha Berlin0 : 1
    26UlmElversberg0 : 1
    27LohneGreuther Furth0 : 2
    28RSV EintrachtKaiserslautern0 : 7
    29SchweinfurtDusseldorf2 : 4
    30LotteFreiburg0 : 2
    31LubeckDarmstadt1 : 2
    32Lokomotive LeipzigSchalke0 : 1

    1/16-finals
    1Eintracht FrankfurtDortmund1 : 2
    2PaderbornBayer Leverkusen2 : 4
    3B. MonchengladbachKarlsruher SC3 : 1
    4St. PauliHoffenheim3 : 2
    5Union BerlinArminia Bielefeld2 : 1
    6FC KolnBayern Munich1 : 4
    7CottbusRB Leipzig1 : 4
    8IllertissenMagdeburg0 : 3
    9HeidenheimHamburger SV0 : 1
    10WolfsburgHolstein Kiel0 : 1
    11AugsburgBochum0 : 1
    12MainzStuttgart0 : 2
    13Hertha BerlinElversberg3 : 0
    14Greuther FurthKaiserslautern0 : 1
    15DusseldorfFreiburg1 : 3
    16DarmstadtSchalke4 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1DortmundBayer Leverkusen0 : 1
    2B. MonchengladbachSt. Pauli1 : 2
    3Union BerlinBayern Munich2 : 3
    4RB LeipzigMagdeburg3 : 1
    5Hamburger SVHolstein Kiel1 : 2
    6BochumStuttgart0 : 2
    7Hertha BerlinKaiserslautern6 : 1
    8FreiburgDarmstadt2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Bayer LeverkusenSt. Pauli3 : 0
    2Bayern MunichRB Leipzig2 : 0
    3Holstein KielStuttgart0 : 3
    4Hertha BerlinFreiburg1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Bayer LeverkusenBayern Munich
    2StuttgartFreiburg

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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