Caracas vs Peñarol de Montevideo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Libertadores Caracas - Peñarol de Montevideo
Result
0:1
07/05/2024 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4
  • Referee: de Vivar M. D. (Par)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilESPN 4

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.330.33
Ball Possession
50%50%
Goal Attempts
68
Shots on Goal
22
Shots off Goal
46
Free Kicks
1021
Corner Kicks
52
Offsides
51
Throw-ins
4224
Goalkeeper Saves
12
Fouls
168
Yellow Cards
21
Attacks
12196
Dangerous Attacks
4135

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 26', 0 - 1, Rodriguez G. , Fernandez L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 49', Garcia D. 🟨,
  • 57', Sosa D. , Lucas Hernandez ,
  • 57', Ramirez G. , Sosa I. ,
  • 66', Sulbaran M. , Moreno E. ,
  • 66', Pernia E. , Reinoso L. ,
  • 71', Moreno E. 🟨,
  • 72', Rodriguez B. , Quijada R. ,
  • 77', Fernandez L. , Gonzalez A. ,
  • 77', Milans P. , Castillo Segura B. D. ,
  • 81', Rivas R. , Figueroa R. ,
  • 82', Casiani L. , Rivas A. ,
  • 88', Mendez J. , Leo Coelho ,
  • 90+4', Tamayo B. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Caracas
16.1%
Draw
24.6%
Peñarol de Montevideo
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
23.9% 27.4% 48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2% 26.6% 50.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caracas's form might have worsened.
  • Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peñarol de Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caracas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Caracas - Peñarol de Montevideo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    5.81
    (3.9)
    3.79
    (3.4)
    1.59
    (1.92)
    6.4%
    (7.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Caracas - Peñarol de Montevideo?
  • Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 79.37%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Caracas is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Recent matches Peñarol is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Peñarol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Peñarol is a favorite.
    • Last 1 head-to-head matches Caracas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-5.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Caracas - Peñarol de Montevideo were as follows:
    10.04.2024 Peñarol de Montevideo - Caracas 5:0
    Latest results of Caracas
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Atl. NacionalSao Paulo1 : 2, 0 : 0
    2Botafogo RJLDU Quito0 : 2, 1 : 0
    3Libertad AsuncionRiver Plate1 : 2, 0 : 0
    4U. de DeportesPalmeiras0 : 0, 0 : 4
    5FortalezaVelez Sarsfield0 : 2, 0 : 0
    6PenarolRacing Club1 : 3, 1 : 0
    7Cerro PortenoEstudiantes L.P.0 : 0, 0 : 1
    8Flamengo RJInternacional2 : 0, 1 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Sao PauloLDU Quito
    2River PlatePalmeiras
    3Velez SarsfieldRacing Club
    4Estudiantes L.P.Flamengo RJ