Result
07/03/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
Chances of winning
Peñarol de Montevideo
54.5% | Draw
26.8% | Danubio
18.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.7
(1.7) |
3.5 ↓
(3.59) |
4.95 ↑
(4.92) |
7.5%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 4.
- Peñarol is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Danubio has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Peñarol is seen as the favorite.
- We predict that Peñarol will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:10. (average 1.4:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Peñarol de Montevideo won against Danubio?
Peñarol de Montevideo has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Danubio won against Peñarol de Montevideo?
Danubio has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio were as follows:
05.10.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Danubio
2:0
05.04.2025
Danubio
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
0:1
16.10.2024
Danubio
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
0:1
14.04.2024
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Danubio
2:0
19.11.2023
Danubio
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
2:1
Latest results of Peñarol de Montevideo
Latest results of Danubio
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Maldonado | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Central Esp | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Penarol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Montevideo City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Liverpool M | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Nacional | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Defensor Sp | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Danubio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:6 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Albion | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Boston River | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 2 |
| 14 | CA Cerro | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 2 |
| 15 | Juventud | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Progreso | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:8 | -6 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
