Result
1:1
07/03/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 5
- Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Antel TV, Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 5', Herrera N. ↓, Laxalt D. ↑,
- 9', 0 - 1, Cabrera E. ⚽,
- 45+4', Gularte E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Laxalt D. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
- 56', Togni G. ↓, Angulo L. ↑,
- 63', Cabrera E. ↓, Costantino I. ↑,
- 63', Peralta M. ↓, Sosa L. ↑,
- 73', Fernandez N. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
- 73', Umpierrez L. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
- 74', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
- 74', Ferreira M. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
- 77', 1 - 1, Angulo L. ⚽,
- 80', Azambuja N. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
- 84', Mayada C. 🟨,
- 85', Angulo L. 🟨,
- 87', Cavanagh T. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Peñarol de Montevideo
60.3% | Draw
25.4% | Danubio
14.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peñarol de Montevideo's performance.Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↓
(1.7) |
3.7 ↑
(3.59) |
6.54 ↑
(4.92) |
7.3%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio?
Users Predictions:
Peñarol de Montevideo will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Peñarol de Montevideo will win (2 of 3 users predict this - 66.67%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 4.
- Peñarol is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Danubio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Peñarol is the team to beat.
- We predict that Peñarol will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:10. (average 1.4:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Peñarol de Montevideo won against Danubio?
Peñarol de Montevideo has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Danubio won against Peñarol de Montevideo?
Danubio has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio were as follows:
05.10.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Danubio
2:0
05.04.2025
Danubio
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
0:1
16.10.2024
Danubio
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
0:1
14.04.2024
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Danubio
2:0
19.11.2023
Danubio
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
2:1
Latest results of Peñarol de Montevideo
Latest results of Danubio
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22:15 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25:16 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | Penarol | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20:14 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensor Sp | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12:9 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Central Esp | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21:22 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | Montevideo City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20:15 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Liverpool M | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20:17 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Nacional | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 22:21 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | Danubio | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 17:20 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14:16 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Boston River | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 17 |
| 13 | Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 15:21 | -6 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15:21 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Progreso | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8:20 | -12 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
