Lagarto vs Penedense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie D Lagarto - Penedense
Result
4:0
06/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie D - Round 11

Match Stats

Ball Possession
56%44%
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
93
Corner Kicks
49
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
93
Shots off target
89
Corner Kicks
49
Goalkeeper Saves
35

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (4 - 0)
  • 26', 1 - 0, Marquinhos Brazion ,
  • 33', 2 - 0, ,
  • 42', 3 - 0, ,
  • 45', 4 - 0, ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)

Chances of winning


Lagarto
58.1%
Draw
25.3%
Penedense
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
69.2% 19.6% 11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5% 12.3% 17.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lagarto's form might have worsened.
  • Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penedense's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (-14.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lagarto that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
  • Lagarto - Penedense Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.56
    (1.3)
    3.58
    (4.6)
    5.47
    (8)
    10.3%
    (11.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Lagarto - Penedense?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lagarto will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Penedense will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lagarto: 45%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lagarto will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 5 and 8).
    • Recent performances by Lagarto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Penedense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • In this match, Lagarto is the clear favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lagarto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lagarto - Penedense were as follows:
    10.05.2025 Penedense - Lagarto 0:1
    Latest results of Lagarto
    16.06.2025 Lagarto - Jequié 2:1
    11.06.2025 Juazeirense - Lagarto 2:1
    31.05.2025 Lagarto - Juazeirense 3:1
    25.05.2025 Jequié - Lagarto 3:1
    Latest results of Penedense
    15.06.2025 Penedense - Juazeirense 0:0
    08.06.2025 Jequié - Penedense 0:0
    01.06.2025 Penedense - Jequié 2:4
    24.05.2025 Juazeirense - Penedense 1:0
    18.05.2025 Penedense - Sergipe 0:1
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1LagartoCentral SC2 : 2, 0 : 1
    2Tuna LusoMaranhao2 : 0, 1 : 4
    3America RNJuazeirense2 : 0, 1 : 1
    4ImperatrizManaus1 : 2, 2 : 0
    5AE AltosIndependencia3 : 1, 5 : 1
    6Santa CruzSergipe3 : 1, 1 : 2
    7ASAFerroviario2 : 0, 1 : 0
    8ManauaraSampaio Correa1 : 0, 1 : 1
    9AparecidenseMarica2 : 2, 2 : 1
    10EC Sao JoseGoiatuba1 : 2, 1 : 1
    11Inter de LimeiraMarcilio Dias2 : 1, 0 : 0
    12Rio Branco ESLuverdense3 : 0, 0 : 0
    13PortuguesaMixto1 : 1, 0 : 1
    14CianorteJoinville4 : 0, 1 : 1
    15Barra FCCascavel3 : 0, 1 : 0
    16CeilandiaAgua Santa1 : 0, 1 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1Central SCMaranhao1 : 2
    2America RNImperatriz1 : 0
    3AE AltosSanta Cruz1 : 1
    4ASAManauara1 : 0
    5AparecidenseGoiatuba3 : 2
    6Inter de LimeiraRio Branco ES1 : 0
    7MixtoCianorte1 : 1
    8Barra FCCeilandia1 : 1