Lagarto vs Penedense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

06/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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Serie D - Round 11

Match Stats


Ball Possession
56%	44%
Total shots
17	12
Shots on target
9	3
Corner Kicks
4	9
Total shots
17	12
Shots on target
9	3
Shots off target
8	9
Corner Kicks
4	9
Goalkeeper Saves
3	5

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (4 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Marquinhos Brazion ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, ⚽,
42', 3 - 0, ⚽,
45', 4 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Chances of winning

Lagarto
58.1%

Draw
25.3%

Penedense
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

19.6%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

12.3%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lagarto's form might have worsened.

Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penedense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lagarto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Lagarto - Penedense Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.3)	3.58 ↓ (4.6)	5.47 ↓ (8)	10.3% (11.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Lagarto - Penedense?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lagarto will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Penedense will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lagarto: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lagarto will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 5 and 8).
Recent performances by Lagarto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Penedense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, Lagarto is the clear favorite.
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lagarto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Lagarto won against Penedense?

Lagarto has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Penedense won against Lagarto?

Penedense has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Lagarto - Penedense were as follows:

10.05.2025 Penedense - Lagarto 0:1

Latest results of Lagarto

16.06.2025 Lagarto - Jequié 2:1 ✺

11.06.2025 Juazeirense - Lagarto 2:1 ✺

31.05.2025 Lagarto - Juazeirense 3:1 ✺

25.05.2025 Jequié - Lagarto 3:1 ✺

17.05.2025 Lagarto - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Penedense

15.06.2025 Penedense - Juazeirense 0:0 ✺

08.06.2025 Jequié - Penedense 0:0 ✺

01.06.2025 Penedense - Jequié 2:4 ✺

24.05.2025 Juazeirense - Penedense 1:0 ✺

18.05.2025 Penedense - Sergipe 0:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie D Table

2026

Group 1

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Nacional-AM	2	2	0	0	3:0	3	6
2	Sao Raimundo RR	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4
3	Manauara	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4
4	Manaus	2	1	0	1	1:2	-1	3
5	GAS	2	0	0	2	0:3	-3	0
6	Monte Roraima	2	0	0	2	0:3	-3	0

Group 2

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Porto Velho	2	2	0	0	9:1	8	6
2	Araguaina	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
3	Guapore	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
4	Independencia	2	1	0	1	3:1	2	3
5	Galvez	2	0	0	2	1:6	-5	0
6	Humaita	2	0	0	2	1:8	-7	0

Group 3

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Gama	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
2	Luverdense	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
3	Aparecidense	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
4	Brasiliense	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2
5	Primavera AC	2	0	1	1	2:4	-2	1
6	Inhumas	2	0	0	2	1:4	-3	0

Group 4

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Capital	2	2	0	0	2:0	2	6
2	Goiatuba	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
3	Mixto	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
4	Operario VG	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
5	Uniao Rondonopolis	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
6	Ceilandia	2	0	1	1	0:1	-1	1

Group 5

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Imperatriz	2	1	1	0	3:1	2	4
2	Trem	2	0	2	0	4:4	0	2
3	Aguia De Maraba	2	0	2	0	3:3	0	2
4	Tuna Luso	2	0	2	0	3:3	0	2
5	Tocantinopolis	1	0	1	0	2:2	0	1
6	Oratorio	1	0	0	1	1:3	-2	0

Group 6

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Maracana	2	1	1	0	4:2	2	4
2	Iguatu	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4
3	IAPE	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
4	Sampaio Correa	2	0	2	0	0:0	0	2
5	Moto Club	2	0	1	1	1:3	-2	1
6	Parnahyba	2	0	1	1	1:3	-2	1

Group 7

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Fluminense-PI	2	1	1	0	4:1	3	4
2	Ferroviario	2	1	1	0	4:3	1	4
3	Piaui	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
4	Atletico-CE	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2
5	AE Altos	2	0	1	1	0:3	-3	1
6	Tirol	2	0	0	2	3:5	-2	0

Group 8

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	America RN	2	2	0	0	3:0	3	6
2	Maguary	2	1	0	1	3:1	2	3
3	ABC	2	1	0	1	4:3	1	3
4	Sousa	2	1	0	1	1:2	-1	3
5	Central SC	2	0	1	1	1:2	-1	1
6	Laguna RN	2	0	1	1	1:5	-4	1

Group 9

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lagarto	2	1	1	0	6:5	1	4
2	Sergipe	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
3	Treze PB	2	1	0	1	7:5	2	3
4	Serra Branca	2	0	2	0	3:3	0	2
5	Decisao	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
6	Retro	2	0	1	1	2:5	-3	1

Group 10

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	CSA	2	2	0	0	6:1	5	6
2	Juazeirense	2	2	0	0	5:2	3	6
3	ASA	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
4	Jacuipense	2	0	1	1	1:3	-2	1
5	CSE	2	0	0	2	2:5	-3	0
6	Alagoinhas	2	0	0	2	1:5	-4	0

Group 11

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ivinhema	2	2	0	0	3:1	2	6
2	Betim	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
3	Uberlandia	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
4	Operario MS	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2
5	CRAC	2	0	1	1	0:1	-1	1
6	Ouvidorense	2	0	0	2	0:2	-2	0

Group 12

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tombense	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
2	Democrata GV	2	1	1	0	2:1	1	4
3	Vitoria ES	2	1	0	1	3:2	1	3
4	Porto-BA	2	1	0	1	3:5	-2	3
5	Rio Branco ES	2	0	1	1	3:4	-1	1
6	Real Noroeste	2	0	0	2	1:4	-3	0

Group 13

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Portuguesa RJ	2	1	1	0	5:1	4	4
2	Portuguesa	2	1	1	0	4:1	3	4
3	Agua Santa	2	1	0	1	5:3	2	3
4	Madureira	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
5	Pouso Alegre	2	1	0	1	2:3	-1	3
6	America RJ	2	0	0	2	0:8	-8	0

Group 14

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Marica	2	2	0	0	3:1	2	6
2	Piracicaba	2	1	1	0	6:3	3	4
3	Velo Clube	2	1	0	1	3:2	1	3
4	Sampaio Correa FE	2	1	0	1	1:2	-1	3
5	Noroeste	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
6	Nova Iguacu	2	0	0	2	1:5	-4	0

Group 15

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Joinville	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4
2	Cascavel	2	1	1	0	1:0	1	4
3	Cianorte	2	1	0	1	3:2	1	3
4	Santa Catarina	2	1	0	1	1:1	0	3
5	Guarany de Bage	2	0	1	1	1:3	-2	1
6	Sao Luiz	2	0	1	1	0:2	-2	1

Group 16

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Blumenau	2	2	0	0	6:2	4	6
2	Sao Joseense	2	1	1	0	1:0	1	4
3	Brasil de Pelotas	2	1	0	1	4:4	0	3
4	Marcilio Dias	2	0	2	0	0:0	0	2
5	Azuriz	2	0	1	1	1:2	-1	1
6	EC Sao Jose	2	0	0	2	0:4	-4	0

Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32~finals)