Lagarto vs Penedense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

06/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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Serie D - Round 11

Match Stats


Ball Possession
56%	44%
Total shots
17	12
Shots on target
9	3
Corner Kicks
4	9
Total shots
17	12
Shots on target
9	3
Shots off target
8	9
Corner Kicks
4	9
Goalkeeper Saves
3	5

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (4 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Marquinhos Brazion ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, ⚽,
42', 3 - 0, ⚽,
45', 4 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Chances of winning

Lagarto
58.1%

Draw
25.3%

Penedense
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

19.6%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

12.3%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lagarto's form might have worsened.

Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penedense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lagarto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Lagarto - Penedense Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.3)	3.58 ↓ (4.6)	5.47 ↓ (8)	10.3% (11.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Lagarto - Penedense?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lagarto will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Penedense will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lagarto: 45% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lagarto will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 5 and 8).
Recent performances by Lagarto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Penedense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, Lagarto is the clear favorite.
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lagarto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Lagarto won against Penedense?

Lagarto has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Penedense won against Lagarto?

Penedense has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Lagarto - Penedense were as follows:

10.05.2025 Penedense - Lagarto 0:1

Latest results of Lagarto

16.06.2025 Lagarto - Jequié 2:1 ✺

11.06.2025 Juazeirense - Lagarto 2:1 ✺

31.05.2025 Lagarto - Juazeirense 3:1 ✺

25.05.2025 Jequié - Lagarto 3:1 ✺

17.05.2025 Lagarto - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Penedense

15.06.2025 Penedense - Juazeirense 0:0 ✺

08.06.2025 Jequié - Penedense 0:0 ✺

01.06.2025 Penedense - Jequié 2:4 ✺

24.05.2025 Juazeirense - Penedense 1:0 ✺

18.05.2025 Penedense - Sergipe 0:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie D Table

Main

Group 1

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tuna Luso	14	8	3	3	24:10	14	27
2	Manauara	14	7	5	2	27:11	16	26
3	Manaus	14	6	5	3	21:17	4	23
4	Independencia	14	6	3	5	18:19	-1	21
5	Aguia De Maraba	14	5	5	4	22:14	8	20
6	Trem	14	5	3	6	23:24	-1	18
7	GAS	14	4	3	7	17:24	-7	15
8	Humaita	14	1	1	12	12:45	-33	4

Group 2

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AE Altos	14	7	5	2	22:14	8	26
2	Imperatriz	14	7	3	4	17:15	2	24
3	Sampaio Correa	14	5	6	3	17:11	6	21
4	Maranhao	14	4	7	3	18:12	6	19
5	Iguatu	14	5	3	6	15:15	0	18
6	Tocantinopolis	14	3	6	5	11:17	-6	15
7	Parnahyba	14	3	5	6	16:22	-6	14
8	Maracana	14	3	3	8	12:22	-10	12

Group 3

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	America RN	14	8	3	3	21:9	12	27
2	Santa Cruz	14	8	3	3	20:10	10	27
3	Central SC	14	7	5	2	15:7	8	26
4	Ferroviario	14	5	3	6	15:19	-4	18
5	Horizonte	14	5	2	7	14:17	-3	17
6	Santa Cruz de Natal	14	5	2	7	13:20	-7	17
7	Treze PB	14	4	1	9	7:20	-13	13
8	Sousa	14	3	3	8	11:14	-3	12

Group 4

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	ASA	14	9	4	1	27:8	19	31
2	Lagarto	14	7	2	5	20:16	4	23
3	Sergipe	14	6	4	4	16:10	6	22
4	Juazeirense	14	6	4	4	12:15	-3	22
5	Uniao Carmolandense	14	5	4	5	14:16	-2	19
6	Jequie	14	4	4	6	15:16	-1	16
7	Barcelona	14	2	5	7	9:20	-11	11
8	SC Penedense	14	1	5	8	5:17	-12	8

Group 5

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Aparecidense	14	10	2	2	32:12	20	32
2	Ceilandia	14	8	4	2	23:14	9	28
3	Luverdense	14	7	4	3	14:12	2	25
4	Mixto	14	6	6	2	22:13	9	24
5	Capital	14	4	5	5	14:12	2	17
6	Goiania	14	2	4	8	12:22	-10	10
7	Goianesia	14	1	5	8	11:22	-11	8
8	Porto Velho	14	1	4	9	9:30	-21	7

Group 6

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Portuguesa	14	9	3	2	22:13	9	30
2	Rio Branco ES	14	8	2	4	19:9	10	26
3	Agua Santa	14	6	3	5	20:18	2	21
4	Marica	14	5	4	5	14:14	0	19
5	Pouso Alegre	14	5	2	7	13:18	-5	17
6	Porto Vitoria	14	4	5	5	14:13	1	17
7	Nova Iguacu	14	3	6	5	13:16	-3	15
8	Boavista	14	2	3	9	9:23	-14	9

Group 7

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	14	9	3	2	21:7	14	30
2	Cianorte	14	6	4	4	22:17	5	22
3	Goiatuba	14	6	4	4	21:16	5	22
4	Cascavel	14	5	6	3	15:15	0	21
5	Uberlandia	14	4	4	6	21:20	1	16
6	Monte Azul	14	3	5	6	13:18	-5	14
7	Operario MS	14	3	5	6	13:22	-9	14
8	Itabirito	14	1	7	6	11:22	-11	10

Group 8

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Barra FC	14	8	2	4	20:10	10	26
2	EC Sao Jose	14	7	5	2	21:11	10	26
3	Joinville	14	6	3	5	11:11	0	21
4	Marcilio Dias	14	5	6	3	17:15	2	21
5	Guarany de Bage	14	5	4	5	11:14	-3	19
6	Brasil de Pelotas	14	5	1	8	11:12	-1	16
7	Sao Luiz	14	4	1	9	10:20	-10	13
8	Azuriz	14	3	4	7	6:14	-8	13

Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)