Raków Częstochowa vs Zrinjski Mostar – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
1:0
11/12/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - League phase - Round 5
  • Referee: Berka O. (Cze)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.79
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
37
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
79% (396/499)71% (254/356)
Yellow Cards
03
Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.79
xG on target (xGOT)
0.990.77
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
37
Shots off target
74
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
88
Shots outside the Box
56
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
2116
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1610
Passes
79% (396/499)71% (254/356)
Long passes
39% (19/49)38% (20/52)
Passes in final third
68% (106/155)59% (52/88)
Crosses
50% (7/14)31% (4/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.390.46
Throw-ins
1413
Fouls
1016
Tackles
79% (15/19)71% (15/21)
Duels won
5962
Clearances
2614
Interceptions
1416
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
72
xGOT faced
0.770.99
Goals prevented
0.77-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 36', Memija K. 🟨,
  • 45+5', 1 - 0, Brunes J. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 52', Djurasek N. 🟨,
  • 57', Mikic L. ↓, Sakota M. ↑,
  • 57', Djurasek N. ↓, Ivancic A. ↑,
  • 63', Pranjic J. ↓, Burey T. ↑,
  • 76', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
  • 76', Repka O. ↓, Barath P. ↑,
  • 83', Brunes J. ↓, Rondic I. ↑,
  • 83', Adriano ↓, Silva J. C. ↑,
  • 84', Sakota M. 🟨,
  • 87', Pienko T. ↓, Mircetic B. ↑,
  • 90+1', Memija K. ↓, Abramovic K. ↑,

Chances of winning


Raków Częstochowa
63%		Draw
22.5%		Zrinjski Mostar
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
59.3% 22.9% 17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6% 22.4% 17.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
  • Zrinjski Mostar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zrinjski Mostar than the current prediction. (+3%)
    •

    Raków Częstochowa - Zrinjski Mostar Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.5 ↓
    (1.57)    		 4.18 ↑
    (4.07)    		 6.54 ↑
    (5.21)    		 6.1%
    (7.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Raków Częstochowa - Zrinjski Mostar?
  • Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 25 - 83.3%). Zrinjski will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 70% – 96.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Raków (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Zrinjski (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1.25 - Raków (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Zrinjski (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Raków (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Zrinjski (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Playing home matches at a different stadium - ArcelorMittal Park.
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • In this match, Raków is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Raków: Arsenic Z. (Leg Injury) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There are questionable in Raków: Mosor A. (Inactive)
    • We predict that Raków will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Raków Częstochowa
    07.12.2025 Raków Częstochowa - GKS Katowice 1:0 ✺
    03.12.2025 Śląsk Wrocław - Raków Częstochowa 1:2 ✺
    30.11.2025 Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa 1:4 ✺
    27.11.2025 Raków Częstochowa - Rapid Wien 4:1 ✺
    22.11.2025 Raków Częstochowa - Piast Gliwice 1:3 ✺
    Latest results of Zrinjski Mostar
    07.12.2025 Zrinjski Mostar - Velež Mostar 1:1 ✺
    03.12.2025 Rudar Prijedor - Zrinjski Mostar 0:2 ✺
    30.11.2025 Zrinjski Mostar - Posušje 0:2 ✺
    27.11.2025 Zrinjski Mostar - Häcken 2:1 ✺
    21.11.2025 Radnik Bijeljina - Zrinjski Mostar 0:2 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1KuPS (21)Lech Poznan (11)0 : 1, 0 : 2
    2Noah (19)AZ Alkmaar (14)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    3Zrinjski (23)Crystal Palace (10)0 : 2, 1 : 1
    4Jagiellonia (17)Fiorentina (15)4 : 2, 0 : 3
    5Shkendija (22)Samsunspor (12)0 : 4, 0 : 1
    6Drita (20)Celje (13)2 : 3, 2 : 3
    7Sigma Olomouc (24)Lausanne (9)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    8Omonia (18)Rijeka (16)1 : 3, 0 : 1
    9Rayo Vallecano (5)Bye
    10Shakhtar Donetsk (6)Bye
    11AEK Athens (3)Bye
    12Sparta Prague (4)Bye
    13Mainz (7)Bye
    14AEK Larnaca (8)Bye
    15Strasbourg (1)Bye
    16Rakow (2)Bye
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