Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Spanish LaLiga
Result
2:1
01/02/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • LaLiga - Round 22
  • Referee: Diaz I. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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vietnamVietnamSCTV 22

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.150.95
Ball possession
57%43%
Total shots
1611
Shots on target
64
Big chances
32
Corner kicks
94
Passes
90% (520/580)88% (389/442)
Yellow cards
28
Red cards
02
Expected goals (xG)
2.150.95
xG on target (xGOT)
1.210.96
Total shots
1611
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
64
Blocked shots
43
Shots inside the box
124
Shots outside the box
47
Hit the woodwork
20
Big chances
32
Corner kicks
94
Touches in opposition box
5416
Accurate through passes
30
Offsides
11
Free kicks
186
Passes
90% (520/580)88% (389/442)
Long passes
61% (22/36)42% (20/48)
Passes in final third
84% (169/202)79% (81/102)
Crosses
23% (3/13)0% (0/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.730.41
Throw ins
1114
Fouls
618
Tackles
52% (11/21)70% (16/23)
Duels won
5238
Clearances
1728
Interceptions
712
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
34
xGOT faced
0.961.21
Goals prevented
-0.04-0.79

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 10', Bellingham J. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
  • 15', 1 - 0, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Diaz B. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Asencio R. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
  • 49', 1 - 1, de Frutos J. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
  • 53', Gumbau G. 🟨,
  • 56', Gumbau G. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
  • 56', de Frutos J. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
  • 57', Chavarria P. 🟨,
  • 60', Mastantuono F. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
  • 65', Palazon I. 🟨,
  • 69', Ceballos D. 🟨,
  • 72', Valentin O. 🟨,
  • 77', Huijsen D. ↓, Alaba D. ↑,
  • 77', Guler A. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
  • 77', Garcia A. ↓, Pacha ↑,
  • 80', Ciss P. 🟥,
  • 83', Batalla A. 🟨,
  • 83', Palazon I. ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
  • 83', Akhomach I. 🟨,
  • 83', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
  • 84', Akhomach I. ↓, Martin C. ↑,
  • 90+9', Pacha 🟨,
  • 90+10', 2 - 1, Mbappe K. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 90+13', Chavarria P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Real Madrid
75.7%		Draw
14.9%		Rayo Vallecano
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
71.3% 18.1% 10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.3% 17.4% 10.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
    •

    Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.28 ↓
    (1.33)    		 6.36 ↑
    (5.24)    		 10.07 ↑
    (8.93)    		 4%
    (5.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
    What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano?
  • Users Predictions: 81 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 71 - 87.7%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 2 - 2.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 9.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 80.5% – 94.9%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1.5 - Real (1.78) (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 50%) .
    • AH -1.75 - Rayo Vallecano (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (42 of 46 users predict this - 91.3%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 56 high ROI users predict this event. Real (votes: 50 - 89.3%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 3.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 7.1%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Rayo Vallecano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Real is the undeniable favorite.
    • There will not play in Real: Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Mendez D. (Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Real: Alexander-Arnold T. (Thigh Injury) Rudiger A. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Ratiu A. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 47:18. (average 2.4:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Real won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:6. (average 3.2:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano were as follows:
    09.11.2025 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 0:0
    09.03.2025 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1
    14.12.2024 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 3:3
    18.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 1:1
    05.11.2023 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 0:0
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    28.01.2026 Benfica - Real Madrid 4:2 ✺
    24.01.2026 Villarreal - Real Madrid 0:2 ✺
    20.01.2026 Real Madrid - Monaco 6:1 ✺
    17.01.2026 Real Madrid - Levante 2:0 ✺
    14.01.2026 Albacete Balompié - Real Madrid 3:2 ✺
    Latest results of Rayo Vallecano
    24.01.2026 Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna 1:3 ✺
    18.01.2026 Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano 3:0 ✺
    14.01.2026 Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano 2:0 ✺
    11.01.2026 Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca 2:1 ✺
    06.01.2026 Granada - Rayo Vallecano 1:3 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barcelona ✔ 29241478:285073
    2Real Madrid29223463:263769
    3Villarreal29184754:342058
    4Atl. Madrid29176649:282157
    5Betis291111744:37744
    6Celta Vigo291011841:35641
    7Real Sociedad291081144:45-138
    8Getafe291151325:31-638
    9Ath Bilbao291151332:41-938
    10Osasuna291071234:35-137
    11Espanyol291071236:44-837
    12Valencia29981232:42-1035
    13Girona298101131:44-1334
    14Rayo Vallecano297111128:35-732
    15Sevilla29871437:49-1231
    16Alaves29871430:41-1131
    17Elche296111238:46-829
    18Mallorca29771534:47-1328
    19Levante29681534:48-1426
    20Oviedo29491620:48-2821

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

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