Result
3:1
20/01/2026 at 13:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super Cup Women - Semi-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Spain | 3Cat, Esport3, RTVE Play, Teledeporte |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.94 | 1.17 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (200/255) | 86% (375/436) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.94 | 1.17 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 0.64 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 42 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (200/255) | 86% (375/436) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (9/33) | 44% (8/18) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (56/70) | 74% (114/155) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (2/9) | 29% (9/31) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.87 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 90% (18/20) | 78% (14/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 44 | 8 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.64 | 1.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.36 | -1.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 0)
- 6', 1 - 0, del Castillo A. ⚽,
- 15', 2 - 0, Weir C. ⚽,
- 18', 3 - 0, Caicedo L. ⚽, Weir C. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Bartel J. ↓, Menayo C. ↑,
- 46', Weir C. ↓, Feller N. ↑,
- 57', Feller N. 🟨,
- 57', Caicedo L. 🟨,
- 60', Redondo A. ↓, Dorado I. ↑,
- 64', Dabritz S. 🟨,
- 67', del Castillo A. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
- 68', Holmgaard S. ↓, Yasmim ↑,
- 72', 3 - 1, Luany ⚽, Alexia (A),
- 82', Sarriegi A. ↓, Chinchilla P. ↑,
- 83', Dabritz S. ↓, Toletti S. ↑,
- 85', Medina A. 🟨,
- 90+2', Lloris S. ↓, Guijarro S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Real Madrid
67.1% | Draw
19% | Atlético Madrid
13.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-13.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+9.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.53 ↓
(1.74) |
5.83 ↑
(3.78) |
8.23 ↑
(3.79) |
-5.5%
(10.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 1.
- Real Madrid is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Atlético Madrid is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Real Madrid is considered a favorite.
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Real Madrid won against Atlético Madrid?
Real Madrid has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Madrid won against Real Madrid?
Atlético Madrid has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid were as follows:
05.09.2025
Atlético Madrid
-
Real Madrid
2:1
05.01.2025
Atlético Madrid
-
Real Madrid
1:2
13.10.2024
Real Madrid
-
Atlético Madrid
1:1
11.05.2024
Real Madrid
-
Atlético Madrid
2:3
14.02.2024
Atlético Madrid
-
Real Madrid
1:1
Latest results of Real Madrid
Latest results of Atlético Madrid
Draw
2025/26Semi-finals| 1 | Barcelona W | Athletic Bilbao W | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | Atl. Madrid W | 3 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Barcelona W | Real Madrid W | 2 : 0 |
