Result
1:0
01/02/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 20
- Referee: Pajac I. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Croatia | HRT 2, MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 9 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.75 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (165/238) | 85% (428/501) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.75 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 0.17 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (165/238) | 85% (428/501) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (19/49) | 51% (24/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (38/69) | 75% (106/142) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 11% (3/27) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.65 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 17 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.17 | 0.17 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 27', 1 - 0, Akere S. ⚽, Matkovic A. (A),
- 32', Hasic E. 🟨,
- 45+1', Radeljic S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Thaqi D. ↓, Morchiladze T. ↑,
- 65', Bodetic N. ↓, Ndockyt M. ↑,
- 65', Gojak A. ↓, Fruk T. ↑,
- 65', Barisic B. ↓, Colina D. ↑,
- 65', Omerovic N. ↓, Bukvic D. ↑,
- 70', Jelenic L. 🟨,
- 77', Juric A. ↓, Adu Adjei D. ↑,
- 77', Orec A. ↓, Lasickas J. ↑,
- 77', Akere S. ↓, Mersinaj J. ↑,
- 83', Mikolcic S. ↓, Mejia Moscoso D. M. ↑,
- 83', Teklic T. ↓, Petrusenko O. ↑,
- 85', Matkovic A. 🟨,
- 90+1', Petrusenko O. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Osijek
30.3% | Draw
30.6% | Rijeka
39.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Osijek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)Rijeka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osijek than the current prediction. (-3.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rijeka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Osijek - Rijeka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.12 ↓
(3.43) |
3.04 ↓
(3.22) |
2.38 ↑
(2.13) |
6.9%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Osijek - Rijeka?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Osijek will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Rijeka will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osijek: 11.9% – 76.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Osijek (votes: 2 - 50%). Rijeka (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Osijek (2.41) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Osijek (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Rijeka (votes: 2 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Prva NL and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osijek won 1.
- Recent form of Osijek has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Rijeka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Rijeka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Osijek has had a series of home games.
- Rijeka might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Osijek: Farkas N.
(Injury)
Shopov S.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Rijeka: Majstorovic A.
(Red Card)
Skoric M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Rijeka: Fruk T.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Osijek won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Osijek won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.7:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Osijek won against Rijeka?
Osijek has won 3 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rijeka won against Osijek?
Rijeka has won 5 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Osijek - Rijeka were as follows:
27.10.2025
Rijeka
-
Osijek
4:2
09.08.2025
Osijek
-
Rijeka
0:0
23.04.2025
Rijeka
-
Osijek
0:2
16.02.2025
Osijek
-
Rijeka
0:2
10.11.2024
Rijeka
-
Osijek
1:1
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Din. Zagreb | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 56:19 | 37 | 54 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 36:21 | 15 | 47 |
| 3 | Rijeka | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 36:25 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Slaven Belupo | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 33:36 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Varazdin | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 30:35 | -5 | 33 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29:35 | -6 | 30 |
| 7 | Lok. Zagreb | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 29:37 | -8 | 29 |
| 8 | Gorica | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 27:36 | -9 | 26 |
| 9 | Osijek | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 21:36 | -15 | 20 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 26:43 | -17 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
