Result
7:4
24/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.49 | 2.68 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 36 | 23 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 19.44% (7/36) | 17.39% (4/23) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 19 | 29 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 82.61% (19/23) | 85.29% (29/34) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 100% (1/1) | 100% (2/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/2) | 0% (0/1) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 29 | 40 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 42.03 | 57.97 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 02:37, Bjork M. (2 min),
- 03:15, 1 - 0, Nikkanen H. (G), Airola S. (A), Fortier M. (A2)
- 13:07, Bau S. (2 min),
- 13:16, 1 - 1, Kantner M. (G), Erholtz E. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
- 2nd Period (2 - 1)
- 00:54, 2 - 1, Kivenmaki O. (G), Nikkanen H. (A), Fortier M. (A2)
- 03:23, Salminen S. (2 min),
- 03:37, 2 - 2, Hirvonen R. (G), Kantner M. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
- 17:45, 3 - 2, Siikanen P. (G), Salminen S. (A),
- 3rd Period (4 - 2)
- 04:21, 4 - 2, Kalapudas A. (G), Trejbal O. (A), Salomaki M. (A2)
- 06:20, 4 - 3, Kantner M. (G), Tikka T. (A), Hakanpaa J. (A2)
- 07:29, 5 - 3, Salomaki M. (G), Kalapudas A. (A), Niinisaari S. (A2)
- 16:21, 6 - 3, Nikkanen H. (G),
- 17:17, 6 - 4, Erholtz E. (G), Hermonen J. (A), Tikka T. (A2)
- 19:18, 7 - 4, Fortier M. (G),
Chances of winning
SaiPa
51.7% | Draw
21.8% | Kärpät
26.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SaiPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
SaiPa - Kärpät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.81 ↓
(1.84) |
4.2 ↑
(3.97) |
3.54 ↓
(3.61) |
7.4%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.75
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 4.
- SaiPa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Kärpät has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, SaiPa is considered a favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 49:67. (average 2.5:3.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, SaiPa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:39. (average 2.5:3.9).
How many head-to-head matches has SaiPa won against Kärpät?
SaiPa has won 8 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against SaiPa?
Kärpät has won 7 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between SaiPa - Kärpät were as follows:
14.01.2026
Kärpät
-
SaiPa
1:2
13.12.2025
Kärpät
-
SaiPa
3:4
11.10.2025
SaiPa
-
Kärpät
4:3
24.01.2025
SaiPa
-
Kärpät
6:3
11.12.2024
Kärpät
-
SaiPa
3:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
