Samambaia vs Brasília – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
4:1
07/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Brasiliense - Round 6

Match Stats

Ball possession
54%46%
Total shots
199
Shots on target
113
Corner kicks
113
Total shots
199
Shots on target
113
Shots off target
86
Corner kicks
113

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 19', 1 - 0, Victor Xavier ,
  • 30', 2 - 0, Victor Xavier ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 60', 3 - 0, Matheus ,
  • 69', 3 - 1, Lima V. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 81', 4 - 1, Victor Xavier (Penalty Awarded),

Chances of winning


Samambaia
74.5%
Draw
19.8%
Brasília
5.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
49.7% 26.9% 23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51% 26.2% 22.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Samambaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+24.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Samambaia's performance.
  • Brasília has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brasília might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samambaia than the current prediction. (-23.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Samambaia that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brasília than the current prediction. (+17.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brasília could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Samambaia - Brasília Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.23
    (1.84)
    4.63
    (3.4)
    16.28
    (3.9)
    8.9%
    (9.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Samambaia - Brasília?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 5 and 8).
    • In recent matches, Samambaia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Brasília is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, Samambaia is the undisputed favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Samambaia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.
    • Including home match between the teams, Samambaia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Samambaia - Brasília were as follows:
    12.02.2023 Samambaia - Brasília 3:0
    Latest results of Samambaia
    31.01.2026 Samambaia - Brasiliense 0:1
    24.01.2026 Real Brasilia - Samambaia 0:1
    21.01.2026 Gama - Samambaia 0:0
    18.01.2026 Samambaia - Ceilândia 2:1
    Latest results of Brasília
    31.01.2026 ARUC - Brasília 0:1
    25.01.2026 Brasília - Ceilândia 1:2
    21.01.2026 Paranoá - Brasília 1:0
    17.01.2026 Brasília - Gama 0:2
    10.01.2026 Brasiliense - Brasília 4:0
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Semi-finals
    1GamaCeilandia2 : 1, 1 : 1
    2SamambaiaSobradinho0 : 1, 0 : 0

    Final
    1GamaSobradinho