Result
2:0
22/02/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Pernambucano - Play Offs - Semi-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 15', Ianson 🟨,
- 17', Samuel 🟨,
- 23', Pedro Favela 🟨,
- 31', Arnaldo 🟨,
- 43', Ianson ↓, Matheus Vinicius ↑,
- 45+7', 1 - 0, Paulo Sergio (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Vitinho ↓, Renato ↑,
- 50', Wagner Balotelli 🟨,
- 58', Junior Todinho ↓, Juninho ↑,
- 58', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
- 65', 🟨,
- 72', Quirino ↓, Matheus Castilho ↑,
- 73', 2 - 0, Paulo Sergio ⚽,
- 77', Samuel ↓, Auremir ↑,
- 77', Wenderson ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
- 79', Alex Ruan ↓, Rodrigues ↑,
- 80', Pedro Favela ↓, Gabriel Galhardo ↑,
- 80', Willian Junior ↓, Vini Hora ↑,
- 81', Eurico 🟨,
- 83', Dodo ↓, Ramon ↑,
- 84', Paulo Sergio ↓, Rosa G. ↑,
- 84', Luiz Felipe 🟨,
Chances of winning
Náutico Capibaribe
58.5% | Draw
24.8% | Santa Cruz Recife
16.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santa Cruz Recife might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náutico Capibaribe that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Cruz Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.57 ↓
(1.92) |
3.7 ↑
(3.1) |
5.52 ↑
(4.05) |
8.9%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Náutico (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Náutico Capibaribe will win
(7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 4.
- Náutico is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Santa Cruz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Santa Cruz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Náutico has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Náutico is considered a favorite.
- We predict that Náutico will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.5:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.6:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Náutico Capibaribe won against Santa Cruz Recife?
Náutico Capibaribe has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santa Cruz Recife won against Náutico Capibaribe?
Santa Cruz Recife has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife were as follows:
11.02.2026
Santa Cruz Recife
-
Náutico Capibaribe
0:1
25.01.2026
Santa Cruz Recife
-
Náutico Capibaribe
0:4
25.01.2025
Náutico Capibaribe
-
Santa Cruz Recife
2:1
27.01.2024
Santa Cruz Recife
-
Náutico Capibaribe
1:2
15.01.2023
Santa Cruz Recife
-
Náutico Capibaribe
3:3
Latest results of Náutico Capibaribe
Latest results of Santa Cruz Recife
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Nautico | Bye | |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | Decisao | 1 : 0, 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Sport Recife | Bye | |
| 4 | Retro | Maguary | 2 : 1, 1 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Nautico | Santa Cruz | 2 : 0, 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Sport Recife | Retro | 3 : 2, 1 : 0 |
Final
