Mexico vs Saudi Arabia, Gold Cup: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Gold Cup
Soccer Gold Cup Mexico - Saudi Arabia
28/06/2025 at 22:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
Mexico - Saudi Arabia - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.110.02
Ball Possession
60%40%
Total shots
141
Shots on target
50
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
72
Passes
88% (476/543)80% (288/359)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.110.02
xG on target (xGOT)
1.530.00
Total shots
141
Shots on target
50
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
40
Shots inside the Box
90
Shots outside the Box
51
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
236
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1118
Passes
88% (476/543)80% (288/359)
Long passes
48% (21/44)30% (17/56)
Passes in final third
81% (99/122)48% (37/77)
Crosses
13% (3/24)9% (1/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.560.09
Throw-ins
2211
Fouls
1811
Tackles
64% (16/25)53% (9/17)
Duels won
5651
Clearances
1519
Interceptions
89
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
03
xGOT faced
0.001.53
Goals prevented
0.000.30

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 45+8', Gallardo J. 🟨,
  • 45+8', Majrashi A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 50', 1 - 0, Vega A. ⚽,
  • 53', Al Amri A. ↓, Sulaiman M. ↑,
  • 60', Gallardo J. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
  • 60', Jimenez R. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
  • 69', Al Shehri S. ↓, Al Ammar T. ↑,
  • 69', Majrashi A. ↓, Al Sahafi M. ↑,
  • 69', Al Oboud A. ↓, Al Salem A. ↑,
  • 73', Vega A. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
  • 73', Mora G. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
  • 78', Al Johani Z. 🟨,
  • 81', 2 - 0, Madu A. (Own goal),
  • 85', Alvarado R. ↓, Pineda O. ↑,
  • 88', Al Hassan A. ↓, Al Ghamdi F. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Mexico
63.1%		Draw
23.5%		Saudi Arabia
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
64.4% 22.5% 13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5% 21.8% 12.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mexico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Saudi Arabia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mexico than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saudi Arabia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
    •

    Mexico - Saudi Arabia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.49 ↑
    (1.46)    		 4.01 ↓
    (4.18)    		 7.05 ↓
    (7.19)    		 6.1%
    (6.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    •
    What is the prediction for Mexico - Saudi Arabia?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mexico will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Saudi Arabia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mexico: 40% – 93.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Mexico (votes: 2 - 50%). Saudi Arabia (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Mexico is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Saudi Arabia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Mexico is the obvious favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mexico won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mexico - Saudi Arabia were as follows:
    30.11.2022 Saudi Arabia - Mexico 1:2
    Latest results of Mexico
    22.06.2025 Mexico - Costa Rica 0:0 ✺
    18.06.2025 Suriname - Mexico 0:2 ✺
    14.06.2025 Mexico - Dominican Republic 3:2 ✺
    10.06.2025 Mexico - Turkey 1:0 ✺
    07.06.2025 Mexico - Switzerland 2:4 ✺
    Latest results of Saudi Arabia
    22.06.2025 Saudi Arabia - Trinidad & Tobago 1:1 ✺
    19.06.2025 Saudi Arabia - USA 0:1 ✺
    15.06.2025 Haiti - Saudi Arabia 0:1 ✺
    10.06.2025 Saudi Arabia - Australia 1:2 ✺
    05.06.2025 Bahrain - Saudi Arabia 0:2 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1USA (D1)Costa Rica (A2)3 : 2
    2Canada (B1)Guatemala (C2)1 : 2
    3Mexico (A1)Saudi Arabia (D2)2 : 0
    4Panama (C1)Honduras (B2)1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1USA (D1)Guatemala (C2)2 : 1
    2Mexico (A1)Honduras (B2)1 : 0

    Final
    1USA (D1)Mexico (A1)1 : 2
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