Sebastian Korda vs Alex De Minaur – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

07/03/2026 at 18:40 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/32-finals

Match Stats


Aces
6	8
Double Faults
3	4
1st serve percentage
59%	58%
1st serve points won
72% (39/54)	63% (37/59)
2nd serve points won
46% (17/37)	64% (27/42)
Break Points Saved
57% (4/7)	71% (5/7)
1st return points won
37% (22/59)	28% (15/54)
2nd return points won
36% (15/42)	54% (20/37)
Break Points Converted
29% (2/7)	43% (3/7)
Winners
23	28
Unforced errors
45	39
Net points won
56% (14/25)	71% (10/14)
Service Points Won
62% (56/91)	63% (64/101)
Return Points Won
37% (37/101)	38% (35/91)
Total Points Won
48% (93/192)	52% (99/192)
Last 10 balls
3	7
Match points saved
1	0
Service games won
80% (12/15)	87% (13/15)
Return games won
13% (2/15)	20% (3/15)
Total games won
47% (14/30)	53% (16/30)

Chances of winning

Sebastian Korda
38.3%

Alex De Minaur
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

64.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Sebastian Korda - Alex De Minaur Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.79)		1.56 ↑ (1.43)	4.2% (5.8%)

What is the prediction for Sebastian Korda - Alex De Minaur?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 11 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 100% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Alex De Minaur will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Korda is ranked ATP: 37. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 6.
Korda is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
De Minaur is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
De Minaur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
De Minaur could have a small edge in this match.
We predict that De Minaur will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Korda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Sebastian Korda won against Alex De Minaur?

Sebastian Korda has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alex De Minaur won against Sebastian Korda?

Alex De Minaur has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Sebastian Korda - Alex De Minaur were as follows:

16.06.2024 Alex De Minaur - Sebastian Korda 2:0

13.02.2024 Alex De Minaur - Sebastian Korda 2:0

31.10.2022 Sebastian Korda - Alex De Minaur 1:2

Latest results of Sebastian Korda

05.03.2026 Sebastian Korda - Francisco Comesana 2:0 ✺

24.02.2026 Sebastian Korda - Mattia Bellucci Canceled ✺

22.02.2026 Tommy Paul - Sebastian Korda 0:2 ✺

21.02.2026 Flavio Cobolli - Sebastian Korda 0:2 ✺

20.02.2026 Sebastian Korda - Casper Ruud 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Alex De Minaur

23.02.2026 Patrick Kypson - Alex De Minaur 2:1 ✺

15.02.2026 Alex De Minaur - Felix Aliassime-Auger 2:0 ✺

14.02.2026 Alex De Minaur - Ugo Humbert 2:0 ✺

13.02.2026 Alex De Minaur - Botic Van De Zandschulp 2:1 ✺

12.02.2026 Alex De Minaur - Stanislas Wawrinka 2:0 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Bye
2	Atmane T.	Dimitrov G.	1 : 2
3	Cerundolo J. M.	Van De Zandschulp B.	2 : 1
4	Bye	Rinderknech A. (26)
5	Vacherot V. (24)	Bye
6	Borges N.	Nava E.	2 : 0
7	Shevchenko A.	Shimabukuro S. (Q)	2 : 1
8	Bye	Ruud C. (13)
9	Bublik A. (10)	Bye
10	Zheng M. (WC)	Kopriva V. (LL)	0 : 2
11	Maestrelli F. (Q)	Hijikata R. (Q)	0 : 2
12	Bye	Darderi L. (20)
13	Norrie C. (27)	Bye
14	Arnaldi M.	McDonald M. (Q)	0 : 2
15	Korda S.	Comesana F.	2 : 0
16	Bye	De Minaur A. (6)
17	Djokovic N. (3)	Bye
18	Majchrzak K.	Mpetshi Perricard G.	2 : 1
19	Hurkacz H.	Kovacevic A.	0 : 2
20	Bye	Moutet C. (31)
21	Cerundolo F. (19)	Bye
22	Royer V.	Bonzi B. (Q)	0 : 2
23	Marozsan F.	Bautista-Agut R.	1 : 2
24	Bye	Draper J. (14)
25	Medvedev D. (11)	Bye
26	Tabilo A.	Jodar R. (WC)	2 : 0
27	Tseng C. H. (Q)	Baez S.	0 : 2
28	Bye	Lehecka J. (22)
29	Humbert U. (32)	Bye
30	Merida Aguilar D. (Q)	Michelsen A.	0 : 2
31	Fearnley J.	Dzumhur D.	2 : 0
32	Bye	Fritz T. (7)
33	Musetti L. (5)	Bye
34	Fucsovics M.	O'Connell C. (Q)	2 : 0
35	Prizmic D. (Q)	Schoolkate T. (Q)	2 : 1
36	Bye	Fils A. (30)
37	Rublev A. (17)	Bye
38	Bellucci M.	Diallo G.	0 : 2
39	Monfils G. (WC)	Galarneau A. (Q)	2 : 0
40	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (9)
41	Cobolli F. (15)	Bye
42	Altmaier D. (RET.)	Kecmanovic M.	0 : 1
43	Brooksby J.	Popyrin A.	2 : 0
44	Bye	Tiafoe F. (21)
45	Nakashima B. (28)	Bye
46	Ugo Carabelli C.	Damm M. (WC)	2 : 0
47	Berrettini M.	Mannarino A.	2 : 1
48	Bye	Zverev A. (4)
49	Shelton B. (8)	Bye
50	Opelka R.	Quinn E.	2 : 0
51	Halys Q.	Walton A.	0 : 2
52	Bye	Tien L. (25)
53	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	Bye
54	Svajda Z. (WC)	Cilic M.	2 : 0
55	Navone M.	Giron M.	1 : 2
56	Bye	Mensik J. (12)
57	Khachanov K. (16)	Bye
58	Fonseca J.	Collignon R.	2 : 0
59	Bergs Z.	Struff J-L.	2 : 0
60	Bye	Paul T. (23)
61	Etcheverry T. M. (29)	Bye
62	Tsitsipas S.	Shapovalov D.	1 : 2
63	Svrcina D. (Q)	Duckworth J.	2 : 0
64	Bye	Sinner J. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Dimitrov G.	2 : 0
2	Cerundolo J. M.	Rinderknech A. (WO.) (26)
3	Vacherot V. (24)	Borges N.	2 : 0
4	Shevchenko A.	Ruud C. (13)	0 : 2
5	Bublik A. (10)	Kopriva V.	2 : 1
6	Hijikata R.	Darderi L. (20)	2 : 1
7	Norrie C. (27)	McDonald M.	2 : 0
8	Korda S.	De Minaur A. (6)	1 : 2
9	Djokovic N. (3)	Majchrzak K.	2 : 1
10	Kovacevic A.	Moutet C. (31)	2 : 0
11	Cerundolo F. (19)	Bonzi B.	2 : 1
12	Bautista-Agut R.	Draper J. (14)	1 : 2
13	Medvedev D. (11)	Tabilo A.	2 : 0
14	Baez S.	Lehecka J. (22)	2 : 0
15	Humbert U. (32)	Michelsen A.	1 : 2
16	Fearnley J.	Fritz T. (7)	1 : 2
17	Musetti L. (5)	Fucsovics M.	0 : 2
18	Prizmic D. (RET.)	Fils A. (30)	0 : 1
19	Rublev A. (17)	Diallo G.	1 : 2
20	Monfils G.	Auger-Aliassime F. (9)	1 : 2
21	Cobolli F. (15)	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 1
22	Brooksby J.	Tiafoe F. (21)	0 : 2
23	Nakashima B. (28)	Ugo Carabelli C.	2 : 0
24	Berrettini M.	Zverev A. (4)	0 : 2
25	Shelton B. (8)	Opelka R.	2 : 1
26	Walton A.	Tien L. (25)	0 : 2
27	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	Svajda Z.	2 : 0
28	Giron M.	Mensik J. (12)	0 : 2
29	Khachanov K. (16)	Fonseca J.	1 : 2
30	Bergs Z.	Paul T. (23)	0 : 2
31	Etcheverry T. M. (29)	Shapovalov D.	1 : 2
32	Svrcina D.	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Rinderknech A. (26)	2 : 1
2	Vacherot V. (24)	Ruud C. (13)	1 : 2
3	Bublik A. (10)	Hijikata R.	1 : 2
4	Norrie C. (27)	De Minaur A. (6)	2 : 0
5	Djokovic N. (3)	Kovacevic A.	2 : 1
6	Cerundolo F. (19)	Draper J. (14)	0 : 2
7	Medvedev D. (11)	Baez S.	2 : 0
8	Michelsen A.	Fritz T. (7)	2 : 0
9	Fucsovics M.	Fils A. (30)	0 : 2
10	Diallo G.	Auger-Aliassime F. (9)	1 : 2
11	Cobolli F. (15)	Tiafoe F. (21)	0 : 2
12	Nakashima B. (28)	Zverev A. (4)	1 : 2
13	Shelton B. (8)	Tien L. (25)	1 : 2
14	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	Mensik J. (12)	2 : 1
15	Fonseca J.	Paul T. (23)	2 : 0
16	Shapovalov D.	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Ruud C. (13)	2 : 0
2	Hijikata R.	Norrie C. (27)	0 : 2
3	Djokovic N. (3)	Draper J. (14)	1 : 2
4	Medvedev D. (11)	Michelsen A.	2 : 0
5	Fils A. (30)	Auger-Aliassime F. (9)	2 : 0
6	Tiafoe F. (21)	Zverev A. (4)	0 : 2
7	Tien L. (25)	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	2 : 1
8	Fonseca J.	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Norrie C. (27)	2 : 0
2	Draper J. (14)	Medvedev D. (11)	0 : 2
3	Fils A. (30)	Zverev A. (4)	0 : 2
4	Tien L. (25)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Medvedev D. (11)	0 : 2
2	Zverev A. (4)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

Final

1

Medvedev D. (11)

Sinner J. (2)

0 : 2