Result
32:12
01/02/2026 at 15:05 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Top 14 - Round 16
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | CANAL+ France |
 United-kingdom | FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Tries |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Conversion goals |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Conversion goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Penalty goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Penalty goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goals % |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Dropped goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Total runs |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Metres run with ball |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (6 - 5)
- 7', Villiere G. (Try),
- 30', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
- 40', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
- 2nd Half (26 - 7)
- 50', Montoya J. (Try),
- 50', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
- 57', Montoya J. (Try),
- 57', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
- 59', Luc A. (Try),
- 59', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
- 71', Albornoz T. (Try),
- 71', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
- 79', Brennan D. 🟨,
- 80', Delhommel Y. (Try),
Chances of winning
Section Paloise
71% | Draw
4% | Toulon
25.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Section Paloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Section Paloise's performance.Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (-12.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Section Paloise that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+9.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Section Paloise - Toulon Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.3 ↓
(1.55) |
22.65 ↑
(16.4) |
3.68 ↑
(2.79) |
8.7%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 53.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)
What is the prediction for Section Paloise - Toulon?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Section Paloise will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Toulon will win (votes: 3 - 60%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Section Paloise (votes: 2 - 50%). Toulon (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -5.5 - Toulon (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -9.5 - Toulon (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -7.5 - Toulon (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Section Paloise (votes: 2 - 20%). Toulon (votes: 8 - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 31:23.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 2.
- In recent matches, Section Paloise has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Toulon is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Section Paloise may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Section Paloise is considered a favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 356:554. (average 17.8:27.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Section Paloise won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 198:215. (average 19.8:21.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Section Paloise won against Toulon?
Section Paloise has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toulon won against Section Paloise?
Toulon has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Section Paloise - Toulon were as follows:
04.10.2025
Toulon
-
Section Paloise
33:17
17.05.2025
Section Paloise
-
Toulon
25:21
21.12.2024
Toulon
-
Section Paloise
56:25
24.02.2024
Section Paloise
-
Toulon
17:9
02.12.2023
Toulon
-
Section Paloise
36:13
Latest results of Section Paloise
French Top 14 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Stade Toulousain | 18 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 730:365 | 67 |
| 2 | Section Paloise | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 558:477 | 55 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 561:390 | 53 |
| 4 | Clermont | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 596:467 | 51 |
| 5 | Bordeaux Begles | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 591:483 | 50 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 513:448 | 49 |
| 7 | RC Toulonnais | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 465:536 | 45 |
| 8 | Racing 92 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 514:558 | 45 |
| 9 | Castres Olympique | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 431:501 | 42 |
| 10 | Stade Rochelais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 551:487 | 41 |
| 11 | Lyon | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 521:502 | 39 |
| 12 | Aviron Bayonnais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 467:595 | 36 |
| 13 | USA Perpignan | 18 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 344:511 | 18 |
| 14 | Montauban | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 338:860 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Top 14 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Pro D2
