Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense vs Sergipe – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/07/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca).

Serie D - Round 11

Match Stats


Ball Possession
61%	39%
Total shots
12	7
Shots on target
5	3
Corner Kicks
11	3
Red Cards
1	1
Total shots
12	7
Shots on target
5	3
Shots off target
7	4
Corner Kicks
11	3
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Rickelme ⚽,
43', Junior Vicosa 🟥,
43', Pedro Santos 🟥,
45+6', 0 - 2, Vinicius Tsimuta ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
66', 1 - 2, Marcelo Toscano ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 2, Zulu ⚽,

Chances of winning

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
56.3%

Draw
25.5%

Sergipe
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

20.5%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.2%

19.8%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense's form might have worsened.

Sergipe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sergipe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sergipe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.35)	3.54 ↓ (4.4)	4.95 ↓ (7)	11% (11.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - ASA (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. ASA (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ASA won 4.
Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
In this match, ASA is a strong favorite.
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, ASA won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 1.3:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, ASA won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.4:1.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense won against Sergipe?

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Sergipe won against Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense?

Sergipe has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe were as follows:

10.05.2025 Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 1:2

04.01.2025 Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 0:2

21.07.2024 Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe 2:0

27.04.2024 Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 2:3

01.07.2023 Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe 1:1

Latest results of Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense

15.06.2025 Barcelona de Ilhéus - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 1:0 ✺

07.06.2025 Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - União Carmolandense 2:2 ✺

31.05.2025 União Carmolandense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 0:4 ✺

24.05.2025 Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Barcelona de Ilhéus 4:0 ✺

17.05.2025 Lagarto - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Sergipe

14.06.2025 União Carmolandense - Sergipe 2:0 ✺

08.06.2025 Sergipe - Barcelona de Ilhéus 4:1 ✺

01.06.2025 Barcelona de Ilhéus - Sergipe 0:1 ✺

25.05.2025 Sergipe - União Carmolandense 0:0 ✺

18.05.2025 Penedense - Sergipe 0:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie D Table

2026

Group 1

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Nacional-AM	4	3	0	1	8:6	2	9
2	Manauara	4	2	2	0	7:3	4	8
3	Sao Raimundo RR	4	2	2	0	4:1	3	8
4	Manaus	4	1	1	2	2:4	-2	4
5	Monte Roraima	4	0	2	2	1:4	-3	2
6	GAS	4	0	1	3	2:6	-4	1

Group 2

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Guapore	4	3	1	0	6:2	4	10
2	Araguaina	4	2	2	0	6:4	2	8
3	Porto Velho	4	2	0	2	10:4	6	6
4	Galvez	4	2	0	2	4:7	-3	6
5	Independencia	4	1	1	2	5:4	1	4
6	Humaita	4	0	0	4	2:12	-10	0

Group 3

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Gama	4	3	1	0	6:1	5	10
2	Luverdense	4	2	2	0	4:2	2	8
3	Aparecidense	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6
4	Brasiliense	4	1	3	0	3:2	1	6
5	Primavera AC	4	0	2	2	3:6	-3	2
6	Inhumas	4	0	0	4	2:8	-6	0

Group 4

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Goiatuba	4	3	1	0	5:2	3	10
2	Capital	4	3	0	1	4:2	2	9
3	Mixto	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5
4	Uniao Rondonopolis	4	1	1	2	4:5	-1	4
5	Ceilandia	4	1	1	2	2:3	-1	4
6	Operario VG	4	0	1	3	3:6	-3	1

Group 5

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Trem	4	2	2	0	7:4	3	8
2	Aguia De Maraba	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6
3	Imperatriz	4	1	3	0	5:3	2	6
4	Tuna Luso	4	1	2	1	5:5	0	5
5	Oratorio	4	1	0	3	4:7	-3	3
6	Tocantinopolis	4	0	2	2	3:7	-4	2

Group 6

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Iguatu	4	3	1	0	6:2	4	10
2	Maracana	4	2	1	1	5:3	2	7
3	Moto Club	3	1	1	1	3:3	0	4
4	Parnahyba	4	1	1	2	2:4	-2	4
5	Sampaio Correa	3	0	2	1	0:1	-1	2
6	IAPE	4	0	2	2	4:7	-3	2

Group 7

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Fluminense-PI	4	2	2	0	7:3	4	8
2	Piaui	4	2	1	1	8:6	2	7
3	Ferroviario	4	2	1	1	6:4	2	7
4	AE Altos	4	1	1	2	2:6	-4	4
5	Atletico-CE	4	0	3	1	1:3	-2	3
6	Tirol	4	0	2	2	3:5	-2	2

Group 8

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	ABC	4	3	0	1	7:4	3	9
2	America RN	4	3	0	1	5:2	3	9
3	Central SC	4	2	1	1	5:3	2	7
4	Maguary	4	2	0	2	5:3	2	6
5	Sousa	4	1	0	3	2:5	-3	3
6	Laguna RN	4	0	1	3	1:8	-7	1

Group 9

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Treze PB	4	2	1	1	11:7	4	7
2	Sergipe	4	2	1	1	7:6	1	7
3	Serra Branca	4	1	3	0	7:4	3	6
4	Lagarto	4	1	1	2	8:10	-2	4
5	Retro	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4
6	Decisao	4	1	1	2	5:8	-3	4

Group 10

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Juazeirense	4	4	0	0	9:3	6	12
2	CSA	4	2	1	1	8:4	4	7
3	ASA	4	2	1	1	4:3	1	7
4	CSE	4	1	1	2	5:7	-2	4
5	Jacuipense	4	1	1	2	3:6	-3	4
6	Alagoinhas	4	0	0	4	2:8	-6	0

Group 11

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Uberlandia	4	3	0	1	6:3	3	9
2	Ivinhema	4	3	0	1	6:4	2	9
3	Betim	4	2	1	1	5:4	1	7
4	CRAC	4	1	1	2	3:3	0	4
5	Operario MS	4	0	3	1	2:4	-2	3
6	Ouvidorense	4	0	1	3	1:5	-4	1

Group 12

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tombense	4	2	1	1	4:1	3	7
2	Rio Branco ES	4	2	1	1	7:5	2	7
3	Democrata GV	4	2	1	1	3:2	1	7
4	Vitoria ES	4	2	0	2	7:4	3	6
5	Porto-BA	4	2	0	2	4:8	-4	6
6	Real Noroeste	4	0	1	3	1:6	-5	1

Group 13

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Portuguesa RJ	4	2	2	0	7:1	6	8
2	Portuguesa	4	2	2	0	6:2	4	8
3	Agua Santa	4	2	0	2	7:4	3	6
4	Madureira	4	1	1	2	5:6	-1	4
5	America RJ	4	1	1	2	4:11	-7	4
6	Pouso Alegre	4	1	0	3	2:7	-5	3

Group 14

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Piracicaba	4	2	2	0	8:4	4	8
2	Velo Clube	4	2	1	1	5:3	2	7
3	Marica	4	2	1	1	5:4	1	7
4	Sampaio Correa FE	4	2	1	1	4:4	0	7
5	Noroeste	4	0	2	2	3:5	-2	2
6	Nova Iguacu	4	0	1	3	2:7	-5	1

Group 15

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Joinville	4	3	1	0	6:2	4	10
2	Cascavel	4	2	1	1	3:1	2	7
3	Cianorte	4	2	0	2	5:4	1	6
4	Sao Luiz	4	1	2	1	5:6	-1	5
5	Santa Catarina	4	1	1	2	6:7	-1	4
6	Guarany de Bage	4	0	1	3	1:6	-5	1

Group 16

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Blumenau	4	4	0	0	8:2	6	12
2	Brasil de Pelotas	4	2	1	1	6:4	2	7
3	Sao Joseense	4	2	1	1	2:2	0	7
4	Marcilio Dias	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5
5	Azuriz	4	0	1	3	1:4	-3	1
6	EC Sao Jose	4	0	1	3	1:6	-5	1

Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32~finals)