South Hobart vs South Melbourne – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Australian Cup South Hobart - South Melbourne
Result
1:2
23/07/2025 at 05:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Australia Cup - 1/16-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaParamount+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.722.34
Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
1119
Shots on target
27
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
65
Passes
53% (151/286)66% (223/338)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.722.34
xG on target (xGOT)
0.452.70
Total shots
1119
Shots on target
27
Shots off target
75
Blocked Shots
27
Shots inside the Box
616
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
65
Touches in opposition box
2338
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
03
Free Kicks
1212
Passes
53% (151/286)66% (223/338)
Long passes
35% (30/86)28% (20/72)
Passes in final third
41% (34/83)54% (63/116)
Crosses
29% (5/17)11% (3/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.371.46
Throw-ins
3144
Fouls
1313
Tackles
65% (13/20)69% (11/16)
Duels won
6170
Clearances
5830
Interceptions
67
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
51
xGOT faced
2.700.45
Goals prevented
0.70-0.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 28', 1 - 0, Kemp K. , Gorrie A. (A),
  • 32', 1 - 1, Brennan A. , Pope J. (A),
  • 41', 1 - 2, Bonada N. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 63', Walter A. , Oates H. ,
  • 64', Iwakami Y. , Halfpenny C. ,
  • 69', Brennan A. 🟨,
  • 71', Brennan A. , Skapoulas A. ,
  • 74', Herweynen T. , Wright E. ,
  • 74', Yost A. , Maddock R. ,
  • 81', Kemp K. , Hess A. ,
  • 90+4', Mikkola M. , Mesourouni A. ,

Official Live

Chances of winning


South Hobart
15.6%
Draw
17.2%
South Melbourne
67.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
19.1% 18.4% 62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4% 16.4% 55.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • South Hobart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Hobart than the current prediction. (+5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for South Hobart, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-11.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for South Melbourne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • South Hobart - South Melbourne Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    5.94
    (4.84)
    5.37
    (5.02)
    1.38
    (1.48)
    8.2%
    (8.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
  • What is the prediction for South Hobart - South Melbourne?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. South Hobart will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). South Melbourne will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. South Melbourne (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • South Hobart is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • South Melbourne is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • South Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
    • In this match, South Melbourne is seen as the favorite.
    • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
    Latest results of South Hobart
    Latest results of South Melbourne
    Draw
    Main

    1/16-finals
    1South HobartSouth Melbourne1 : 2
    2Gold Coast KnightsAuckland FC0 : 4
    3Northern TigersSydney Utd0 : 1
    4Western UnitedSydney FC0 : 1
    5Darwin OlympicNunawading City0 : 9
    6Perth GloryWellington Phoenix1 : 2
    7Heidelberg UtdWeston Bears2 : 0
    8WS WanderersPeninsula3 : 0
    9Avondale FCStirling Macedonia5 : 1
    10APIA LeichhardtMelbourne City2 : 0
    11Brisbane CityOlympic FC2 : 0
    12Olympic KingswayMelbourne Victory4 : 3
    13Adelaide Croatia RaidersCooks Hill United2 : 3
    14Newcastle JetsAdelaide United2 : 1
    15Canberra CroatiaNE Metrostars0 : 4
    16SD RaidersMacarthur FC0 : 5

    1/8-finals
    1South MelbourneAuckland FC
    2Sydney UtdSydney FC
    3Nunawading CityWellington Phoenix
    4Heidelberg UtdWS Wanderers
    5Avondale FCAPIA Leichhardt
    6Brisbane CityOlympic Kingsway
    7Cooks Hill UnitedNewcastle Jets
    8NE MetrostarsMacarthur FC

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2