Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Dutch Eredivisie
Result
4:0
14/03/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Eredivisie - Round 27
  • Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1, SupeSport ESPN 2
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 4
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1, Play Sports 3
brazilBrazilDisney+
bulgariaBulgariaRing, Voyo
canadaCanadaSportsnet+, Sportsnet World
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 8
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
franceFranceDAZN France
georgiaGeorgiaSilk Sport 2
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
greeceGreeceNova Sports 2
hong-kongHong-kongmyTV SUPER
indiaIndiaEurosport, JioTV app
indonesiaIndonesiaKompas TV, Vidio
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyComo TV
japanJapanU-NEXT
kenyaKenyaGotv
mexicoMexicoDisney+
netherlandsNetherlandsCanal+, ESPN 2
nigeriaNigeriaSupeSport ESPN 1, SupeSport ESPN 2
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandPolsat Sport Extra 1
portugalPortugalDAZN 3, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaOrange TV Go
russiaRussiaTV Start
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 6
slovakiaSlovakiaArena sport 1, Sport TV2
south-africaSouth-africaSupeSport ESPN 2, SupeSport ESPN
spainSpainGolStadium
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomPremier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldOnefootball, Triller TV+

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
3.020.19
Ball possession
58%42%
Total shots
228
Shots on target
101
Big chances
40
Corner kicks
53
Passes
82% (411/499)79% (275/347)
Yellow cards
02
Expected goals (xG)
3.020.19
xG on target (xGOT)
3.000.01
Total shots
228
Shots on target
101
Shots off target
86
Blocked shots
41
Shots inside the box
146
Shots outside the box
82
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
40
Corner kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
4112
Accurate through passes
30
Offsides
22
Free kicks
178
Passes
82% (411/499)79% (275/347)
Long passes
39% (18/46)44% (21/48)
Passes in final third
78% (115/147)66% (58/88)
Crosses
21% (3/14)18% (4/22)
Expected assists (xA)
1.830.25
Throw ins
1916
Fouls
817
Tackles
53% (10/19)63% (12/19)
Duels won
5851
Clearances
1726
Interceptions
1013
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
17
xGOT faced
0.013.00
Goals prevented
0.010.00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 19', 1 - 0, Kitolano J. (Own goal),
  • 25', Regeer Y. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
  • 32', 2 - 0, Berghuis S. ⚽, Steur S. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Martes L. ↓, Sambo S. ↑,
  • 46', van Bergen M. ↓, Santos A. ↑,
  • 54', Sambo S. 🟨,
  • 69', Tomiyasu T. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
  • 69', Konadu D. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
  • 70', van Crooij V. ↓, Zonneveld M. ↑,
  • 70', Clement P. ↓, Terho C. ↑,
  • 73', 3 - 0, Klaassen D. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
  • 74', Martins Indi B. 🟨,
  • 76', 4 - 0, Godts M. ⚽, Dolberg K. (A),
  • 81', Berghuis S. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
  • 81', Steur S. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,

Chances of winning


Ajax
55.5%		Draw
22.4%		Sparta Rotterdam
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57.9% 22.7% 19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7% 21.7% 18.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
    •

    Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.71 ↑
    (1.61)    		 4.22 ↑
    (4.1)    		 4.31 ↓
    (4.8)    		 5.3%
    (7.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Sparta Rotterdam will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Sparta Rotterdam: 29.2% – 76.6%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1 - Ajax (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sparta Rotterdam will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Sparta Rotterdam (votes: 4 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ))
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2.
    • Ajax has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Sparta Rotterdam is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • In this match, Ajax is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Ajax: Itakura K. (Back Injury) Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Weghorst W. (Yellow Cards) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: Martes L. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Ajax: Ibrahimovic M. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Sparta Rotterdam: Kleijn M. (Injury)
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 40:15. (average 2.4:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:6. (average 2.3:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam were as follows:
    04.10.2025 Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax 3:3
    27.04.2025 Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam 1:1
    22.12.2024 Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax 0:2
    17.03.2024 Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax 2:2
    09.12.2023 Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
    Latest results of Ajax
    07.03.2026 Groningen - Ajax 3:1 ✺
    01.03.2026 Zwolle - Ajax 0:0 ✺
    21.02.2026 Ajax - NEC Nijmegen 1:1 ✺
    14.02.2026 Ajax - Fortuna Sittard 4:1 ✺
    08.02.2026 AZ Alkmaar - Ajax 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Sparta Rotterdam
    08.03.2026 Sparta Rotterdam - Zwolle 1:1 ✺
    28.02.2026 Heerenveen - Sparta Rotterdam 2:1 ✺
    22.02.2026 AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam 3:1 ✺
    17.02.2026 Sparta Rotterdam - NEC Nijmegen 1:1 ✺
    07.02.2026 Fortuna Sittard - Sparta Rotterdam 2:2 ✺
    Dutch Eredivisie Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSV27222377:344368
    2Feyenoord27164760:392152
    3Nijmegen27147667:452249
    4Ajax271211452:341847
    5Twente271111545:291644
    6AZ Alkmaar27126947:42542
    7Heerenveen27117947:44340
    8Utrecht27108940:31938
    9Sparta Rotterdam271151133:47-1438
    10Groningen271051237:37035
    11Sittard271051242:50-835
    12G.A. Eagles27711945:43232
    13Zwolle27791136:52-1630
    14FC Volendam27761430:46-1627
    15Excelsior27751528:46-1826
    16Telstar27591335:45-1024
    17NAC Breda27581428:48-2023
    18Heracles27531932:69-3718

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
          Eredivisie (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie

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