Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Football German Bundesliga Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli
Result
1:2
12/04/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 29
  • Referee: Brand B. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports Extra 1
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaRCTI+
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandViaplay
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 4
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldDisney+, Onefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.551.21
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
614
Shots on target
26
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
33
Passes
81% (345/424)84% (326/388)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.551.21
xG on target (xGOT)
0.581.69
Total shots
614
Shots on target
26
Shots off target
34
Blocked Shots
14
Shots inside the Box
310
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
33
Touches in opposition box
817
Offsides
05
Free Kicks
1115
Passes
81% (345/424)84% (326/388)
Long passes
40% (21/52)38% (21/56)
Passes in final third
48% (37/77)63% (59/94)
Crosses
0% (0/11)27% (4/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.171.25
Fouls
1511
Tackles
47% (7/15)55% (6/11)
Duels won
4445
Clearances Total
4329
Interceptions
57
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
41
xGOT faced
1.690.58
Goals prevented
0.69-0.42

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 21', 1 - 0, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Gigovic A. (A),
  • 34', 1 - 1, Sinani D. ⚽,
  • 37', Nemeth D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Becker T. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
  • 46', Saad E. ↓, Guilavogui M. ↑,
  • 47', Afolayan O. 🟨,
  • 60', Ivezic M. 🟨,
  • 61', Afolayan O. ↓, Weisshaupt N. ↑,
  • 64', Dzwigala A. ↓, Van Der Heyden S. ↑,
  • 68', Komenda M. ↓, Geschwill M. ↑,
  • 68', Machino S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
  • 75', Knudsen M. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
  • 77', Harres P. 🟨,
  • 82', Wahl H. 🟨,
  • 83', Gigovic A. ↓, Skrzybski S. ↑,
  • 86', Schulz M. 🟨,
  • 87', Sinani D. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
  • 90+2', 1 - 2, Geschwill M. (Own goal),
  • 90+2', Guilavogui M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Holstein Kiel
29.7%		Draw
27.8%		St. Pauli
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.9% 27.7% 39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9% 28.6% 38.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
    •

    Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.24 ↑
    (2.92)    		 3.46 ↓
    (3.48)    		 2.24 ↓
    (2.44)    		 4.4%
    (3.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    •
    What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli?
  • Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 43.5% – 83.7%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 15).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 0.
    • Holstein Kiel is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Recent matches St. Pauli is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • St. Pauli will have a small advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Holtby L. (Muscle Injury) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Nekic I. (Knee Injury) Pichler B. (Lacking Match Fitness) Zec D. (Yellow Cards)
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Burchert S. (Groin Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Sands J. (Broken Leg) Zoller S. (Thigh Injury)
    • Last 18 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 29:30 (average 1.6:1.7).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Holstein Kiel won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 22:13 (average 2.2:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli were as follows:
    29.11.2024 St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel 3:1
    23.02.2024 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 3:4
    17.09.2023 St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel 5:1
    19.05.2023 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 3:4
    08.11.2022 St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel 0:0
    Latest results of Holstein Kiel
    05.04.2025 Mainz - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺
    29.03.2025 Holstein Kiel - Werder Bremen 0:3 ✺
    20.03.2025 Holstein Kiel - Eintracht Braunschweig 2:2
    08.03.2025 Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart 2:2 ✺
    02.03.2025 Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel 0:1 ✺
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    06.04.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:1 ✺
    29.03.2025 Bayern Munich - St. Pauli 3:2 ✺
    19.03.2025 Hertha Berlin - St. Pauli 0:0
    14.03.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 1:0 ✺
    08.03.2025 Wolfsburg - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union Berlin00000:000
    2Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    3Bayern Munich00000:000
    4Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    5Werder Bremen00000:000
    6Hamburger SV00000:000
    7Wolfsburg00000:000
    8Dortmund00000:000
    9B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    10Hoffenheim00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Freiburg00000:000
    14St. Pauli00000:000
    15Augsburg00000:000
    16Stuttgart00000:000
    17Heidenheim00000:000
    18RB Leipzig00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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