Sebastian Baez vs Stanislas Wawrinka – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

06/04/2026 at 07:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/32-finals

Match Stats


Aces
3	4
Double Faults
1	4
1st serve percentage
61%	52%
1st serve points won
58% (26/45)	67% (30/45)
2nd serve points won
59% (17/29)	34% (14/41)
Break Points Saved
6/10	6/12
1st return points won
33% (15/45)	44% (20/45)
2nd return points won
66% (27/41)	41% (12/29)
Break Points Converted
6/12	4/10
Winners
25	16
Unforced errors
31	41
Net points won
88% (7/8)	50% (7/14)
Service Points Won
58% (43/74)	51% (44/86)
Return Points Won
49% (42/86)	42% (31/74)
Total Points Won
53% (85/160)	47% (75/160)
Last 10 balls
8	2
Match points saved
0	1
Service games won
67% (8/12)	50% (6/12)
Return games won
50% (6/12)	33% (4/12)
Total games won
58% (14/24)	42% (10/24)

Chances of winning

Sebastian Baez
68.1%

Stanislas Wawrinka
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Stanislas Wawrinka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stanislas Wawrinka than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stanislas Wawrinka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.41)		2.98 ↑ (2.77)	5.1% (7%)

What is the prediction for Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 11 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Wawrinka (2.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 3 - 75%). Wawrinka (votes: 1 - 25%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Baez is ranked ATP: 50. Wawrinka is ranked ATP: 98.
Recent performances by Baez have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Wawrinka is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Wawrinka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Baez is seen as the favorite.
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Baez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Sebastian Baez won against Stanislas Wawrinka?

Sebastian Baez has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Stanislas Wawrinka won against Sebastian Baez?

Stanislas Wawrinka has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka were as follows:

07.01.2026 Stanislas Wawrinka - Sebastian Baez 0:2

Latest results of Sebastian Baez

03.04.2026 Sebastian Baez - Titouan Droguet 0:2 ✺

31.03.2026 Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas 2:0 ✺

20.03.2026 Adam Walton - Sebastian Baez 2:0 ✺

09.03.2026 Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez 2:0 ✺

07.03.2026 Sebastian Baez - Jiri Lehecka 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Stanislas Wawrinka

24.03.2026 Stanislas Wawrinka - Matteo Martineau 1:2 ✺

25.02.2026 Daniil Medvedev - Stanislas Wawrinka 2:0 ✺

23.02.2026 Stanislas Wawrinka - Benjamin Hassan 2:0 ✺

12.02.2026 Alex De Minaur - Stanislas Wawrinka 2:0 ✺

11.02.2026 Aleksandar Vukic - Stanislas Wawrinka Canceled ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/32-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Bye
2	Baez S.	Wawrinka S. (WC)	2 : 0
3	Etcheverry T. M.	Dimitrov G.	2 : 1
4	Atmane T.	Quinn E. (LL)	2 : 0
5	Lehecka J. (11)	Nava E. (Q)	2 : 1
6	Fucsovics M.	Tabilo A.	0 : 2
7	Monfils G. (WC)	Griekspoor T.	2 : 1
8	Bye	Bublik A. (8)
9	Musetti L. (4)	Bye
10	Vacherot V.	Cerundolo J. M. (Q)	2 : 1
11	Dzumhur D. (LL)	Marozsan F.	0 : 2
12	Hurkacz H. (PR)	Darderi L. (15)	2 : 1
13	Cobolli F. (10)	Comesana F. (Q)	2 : 1
14	Shapovalov D.	Blockx A. (Q)	1 : 2
15	Norrie C.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 1
16	Bye	De Minaur A. (5)
17	Medvedev D. (7)	Bye
18	Bautista-Agut R. (RET.) (LL)	Berrettini M. (WC)	0 : 0
19	Fonseca J.	Diallo G.	2 : 0
20	Rinderknech A.	Khachanov K. (12)	2 : 0
21	Rublev A. (13)	Borges N.	2 : 1
22	Bergs Z.	Mannarino A.	2 : 0
23	Garin C. (Q)	Arnaldi M. (LL)	2 : 0
24	Bye	Zverev A. (3)
25	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Bye
26	Cilic M.	Shevchenko A. (Q)	2 : 0
27	Moutet C.	Muller A. (Q)	2 : 0
28	Popyrin A.	Ruud C. (9)	0 : 2
29	Cerundolo F. (16)	Tsitsipas S.	2 : 0
30	Altmaier D.	Machac T.	1 : 2
31	Kouame M. (WC)	Humbert U.	0 : 2
32	Bye	Sinner J. (2)

1/16-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Baez S.	2 : 0
2	Etcheverry T. M.	Atmane T.	2 : 1
3	Lehecka J. (11)	Tabilo A.	2 : 1
4	Monfils G.	Bublik A. (8)	0 : 2
5	Musetti L. (4)	Vacherot V.	0 : 2
6	Marozsan F.	Hurkacz H.	0 : 2
7	Cobolli F. (10)	Blockx A.	0 : 2
8	Norrie C.	De Minaur A. (5)	1 : 2
9	Medvedev D. (7)	Berrettini M.	0 : 2
10	Fonseca J.	Rinderknech A.	2 : 1
11	Rublev A. (13)	Bergs Z.	0 : 2
12	Garin C.	Zverev A. (3)	1 : 2
13	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Cilic M.	2 : 0
14	Moutet C.	Ruud C. (9)	0 : 2
15	Cerundolo F. (16)	Machac T.	0 : 2
16	Humbert U.	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Etcheverry T. M.	2 : 1
2	Lehecka J. (11)	Bublik A. (8)	0 : 2
3	Vacherot V.	Hurkacz H.	2 : 1
4	Blockx A.	De Minaur A. (5)	0 : 2
5	Berrettini M.	Fonseca J.	0 : 2
6	Bergs Z.	Zverev A. (3)	0 : 2
7	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Ruud C. (RET.) (9)	1 : 0
8	Machac T.	Sinner J. (2)	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Bublik A. (8)	2 : 0
2	Vacherot V.	De Minaur A. (5)	2 : 1
3	Fonseca J.	Zverev A. (3)	1 : 2
4	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Vacherot V.	2 : 0
2	Zverev A. (3)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

Final

1

Alcaraz C. (1)

Sinner J. (2)

0 : 2