Result
2:2
07/03/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 25
- Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Albania | Tring Sport 4 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4 |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, OneSoccer |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 5 |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | Sony LIV |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 6 |
 Mexico | Izzi TV, Sky Sport |
 Mongolia | Premier Sports 5 |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1 |
 Portugal | DAZN / App |
 Romania | Prima Sport PPV 3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | MBC Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1 |
 Singapore | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 4 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True Sport 2 |
 Turkey | S Sport+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.82 | 0.99 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (229/318) | 84% (452/535) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.82 | 0.99 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.18 | 1.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 43 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (229/318) | 84% (452/535) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (33/68) | 51% (25/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (68/108) | 71% (105/148) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (9/28) | 27% (6/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 3.25 | 1.56 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 46% (6/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.23 | 2.18 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.77 | 0.18 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 39', 1 - 0, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, da Costa D. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 65', Assignon L. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,
- 74', Becker S. ↓, Silas ↑,
- 75', Jaquez L. ↓, Jeltsch F. ↑,
- 75', Fuhrich C. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
- 76', 1 - 1, Demirovic E. ⚽, Undav D. (A),
- 77', 1 - 2, Undav D. ⚽, Tomas T. (A),
- 82', Tomas T. 🟨,
- 84', Undav D. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,
- 84', Mittelstadt M. ↓, Hendriks R. ↑,
- 85', Widmer S. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
- 90+1', 2 - 2, da Costa D. ⚽,
- 90+2', da Costa D. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
- 90+2', Nebel P. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
- 90+2', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
- 90+5', Chabot J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mainz
27.1% | Draw
25.1% | Stuttgart
47.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mainz's form might have worsened.Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stuttgart's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-5.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stuttgart, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mainz - Stuttgart Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.51 ↑
(2.92) |
3.79 ↑
(3.67) |
2 ↓
(2.29) |
4.9%
(5.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Mainz - Stuttgart?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.25 - Mainz (2.17) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - Mainz (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Stuttgart will win
(50 of 62 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.82% – 90.48%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Stuttgart will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 24 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 12.5%). Stuttgart (votes: 19 - 79.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.
- Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Stuttgart is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Stuttgart may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Stuttgart will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:33. (average 1:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.7:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Stuttgart?
Mainz has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Stuttgart won against Mainz?
Stuttgart has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Stuttgart were as follows:
29.10.2025
Mainz
-
Stuttgart
0:2
26.10.2025
Stuttgart
-
Mainz
2:1
25.01.2025
Mainz
-
Stuttgart
2:0
31.08.2024
Stuttgart
-
Mainz
3:3
11.02.2024
Stuttgart
-
Mainz
3:1
Latest results of Stuttgart
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 26 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 93:25 | 68 | 67 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 26 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 55:26 | 29 | 58 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 54:34 | 20 | 50 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 51:34 | 17 | 50 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 48:35 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 49:33 | 16 | 45 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 49:49 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 34 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31:42 | -11 | 31 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 31:45 | -14 | 31 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 29:37 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 30:43 | -13 | 28 |
| 13 | Mainz | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 31:41 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | FC Koln | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 35:44 | -9 | 25 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 29:47 | -18 | 25 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 23:42 | -19 | 24 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 35:56 | -21 | 21 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 24:58 | -34 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
