Whanganui vs Thames Valley – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Rugby union Heartland Championships Whanganui - Thames Valley
Result
5:38
03/10/2025 at 21:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Heartland Championships - Round 8

Match Stats

Tries
00
Conversion Goals
00
Conversion Goal Attempts
00
Penalty Goals
00
Penalty Goal Attempts
00
Goals %
00
Dropped Goals
00
Total Runs
00
Metres Run With Ball
00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (5 - 24)
  • 2nd Half (0 - 14)

Chances of winning


Whanganui
58.5%
Draw
3.6%
Thames Valley
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.8% 3.5% 37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3% 3.5% 38%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Whanganui has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • Thames Valley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Whanganui than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thames Valley than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
  • Whanganui - Thames Valley Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.58
    (1.56)
    25.5
    (26)
    2.41
    (2.43)
    8.8%
    (9.1%)
    • The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)
    Preview Facts
    • Whanganui has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Thames Valley is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Whanganui might have a minor edge in this game.
    • We predict that Whanganui will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Whanganui won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:52. (average 15.5:26).
    • Including home match between the teams, Whanganui won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:38.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Whanganui - Thames Valley were as follows:
    11.10.2024 Whanganui - Thames Valley 15:38
    06.09.2024 Thames Valley - Whanganui 14:16
    Latest results of Whanganui
    26.09.2025 King Country - Whanganui 24:29
    19.09.2025 Whanganui - Horowhenua-Kapiti 27:21
    12.09.2025 East Coast - Whanganui FRO
    05.09.2025 South Canterbury - Whanganui 35:24
    29.08.2025 Whanganui - West Coast 19:38
    Latest results of Thames Valley
    26.09.2025 Thames Valley - West Coast 45:7
    19.09.2025 Thames Valley - East Coast 84:5
    12.09.2025 Buller - Thames Valley FRO
    05.09.2025 North Otago - Thames Valley 45:36
    29.08.2025 Thames Valley - King Country 24:20
    Heartland Championships Table
    Main
    PlWDLPts
    1Mid Cant8800368:18640
    2South Cant8503297:23929
    3Thames Valley8503335:17229
    4Wairarapa8503290:22628
    5Whanganui8503258:22026
    6North Otago8503279:29026
    7Poverty Bay8404249:24725
    8Horowhenua8404242:22121
    9King Country8206259:23415
    10West Coast8404268:2038
    11Buller8107129:3787
    12East Coast8008112:4701

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