Tombense vs Avaí – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
3:2
25/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Sul-Sudeste - Round 1

Match Stats

Ball possession
61%39%
Total shots
169
Shots on target
75
Corner kicks
54
Yellow cards
23
Total shots
169
Shots on target
75
Shots off target
94
Corner kicks
54

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 0)
  • 2', 1 - 0, Sousa Rocha Leandro J. ,
  • 20', Roger Carvalho , Donato ,
  • 33', Tedesco N. 🟨,
  • 36', 2 - 0, Felipinho ,
  • 42', 3 - 0, Felipinho ,
  • 45+3', Wanderson 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 46', Samuel , Marcio Vitor ,
  • 57', Tedesco N. , Kauan F. ,
  • 66', Vinicius Gugel , Juninho ,
  • 70', Felipinho , Jupi ,
  • 71', PH , Xavier ,
  • 74', 3 - 1, Santos K. ,
  • 76', Rony Fernandes , Diego Leandro ,
  • 83', Joao Vittor 🟨,
  • 84', Joao Vittor , Ferreira da Silva D. ,
  • 85', Alemao , Melo V. ,
  • 86', Jamerson 🟨,
  • 89', 3 - 2, Melo V. ,
  • 90', Luiz Felipe 🟨,

Chances of winning


Tombense
66.3%
Draw
20.7%
Avaí
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.6% 25.4% 16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7% 25.9% 15.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tombense's performance.
  • Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tombense that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
  • Tombense - Avaí Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.42
    (1.55)
    4.53
    (3.58)
    7.24
    (5.64)
    6.5%
    (10.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    Preview Facts
    • Tombense is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Avaí has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Avaí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Tombense is the team to beat.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tombense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).
    • Including home match between the teams, Tombense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tombense - Avaí were as follows:
    19.08.2023 Avaí - Tombense 4:2
    06.05.2023 Tombense - Avaí 0:1
    Latest results of Tombense
    11.03.2026 Confiança - Tombense 2:0
    28.02.2026 URT - Tombense 3:1
    25.02.2026 Tombense - Oratório 2:1
    20.02.2026 Tombense - URT 0:1
    14.02.2026 Athletic Club - Tombense 1:1
    Latest results of Avaí
    22.03.2026 Avaí - Juventude 2:0
    15.03.2026 Avaí - Figueirense 4:2
    10.03.2026 Portuguesa - Avaí 2:1
    04.03.2026 Avaí - Porto Vitória 3:0
    28.02.2026 Camboriú - Avaí 1:0
    Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste Table
    2026

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1SER Caxias32103:127
    2Chapecoense-SC32014:316
    3Sampaio Correa FE31205:325
    4Novorizontino21103:124
    5Tombense31116:604
    6Cianorte30213:5-22


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Volta Redonda32105:237
    2Operario-PR31201:015
    3America MG30215:6-12
    4Sao Bernardo20113:4-11
    5Avai30125:7-21
    6Juventude30030:5-50

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