Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

30/08/2025 at 21:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY).

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals
Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max

Match Stats


Aces
22	10
Double Faults
12	4
1st Serve Percentage
61%	61%
1st Serve Points Won
83% (91/110)	75% (73/97)
2nd Serve Points Won
52% (36/69)	56% (35/63)
Break Points Saved
100% (6/6)	63% (5/8)
Average 1st Serve Speed
192 km/h	174 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
163 km/h	140 km/h
1st Return Points Won
25% (24/97)	17% (19/110)
2nd Return Points Won
44% (28/63)	48% (33/69)
Break Points Converted
38% (3/8)	0% (0/6)
Winners
70	39
Unforced Errors
55	32
Net Points Won
71% (29/41)	47% (27/58)
Service Points Won
71% (127/179)	68% (108/160)
Return Points Won
33% (52/160)	29% (52/179)
Total Points Won
53% (179/339)	47% (160/339)
Last 10 Balls
6	4
Match Points Saved
0	2
Service Games Won
100% (27/27)	88% (22/25)
Return Games Won
12% (3/25)	0% (0/27)
Total Games Won
58% (30/52)	42% (22/52)
Distance Covered (metres)
3001	3119

Chances of winning

Alexander Bublik
51.1%

Tommy Paul
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

58%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexander Bublik's performance.

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tommy Paul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexander Bublik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tommy Paul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.32)		1.97 ↑ (1.68)	4.5% (2.6%)

What is the prediction for Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul?

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 40 - 75.5%). Paul will win (votes: 13 - 24.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 63.9% – 87.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Alexander Bublik will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.

Preview Facts

Bublik is ranked ATP: 24. Paul is ranked ATP: 14.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 1.
Bublik is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Paul has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.
We predict that Bublik will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.8:1.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Alexander Bublik won against Tommy Paul?

Alexander Bublik has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Tommy Paul won against Alexander Bublik?

Tommy Paul has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul were as follows:

21.03.2025 Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul 1:2

05.07.2024 Tommy Paul - Alexander Bublik 3:0

Latest results of Alexander Bublik

28.08.2025 Alexander Bublik - Tristan Schoolkate 3:0 ✺

26.08.2025 Alexander Bublik - Marin Cilic 3:0 ✺

26.07.2025 Alexander Bublik - Arthur Cazaux 2:0 ✺

25.07.2025 Alexander Bublik - Botic Van De Zandschulp 2:0 ✺

24.07.2025 Alexander Bublik - Alexander Shevchenko 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Tommy Paul

28.08.2025 Nuno Borges - Tommy Paul 2:3 ✺

26.08.2025 Elmer Moller - Tommy Paul 0:3 ✺

11.08.2025 Adrian Mannarino - Tommy Paul 2:1 ✺

09.08.2025 Pedro Martinez Portero - Tommy Paul 0:2 ✺

03.07.2025 Sebastian Ofner - Tommy Paul 3:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Kopriva V.	3 : 0
2	Popyrin A.	Ruusuvuori E.	3 : 0
3	Royer V. (WC)	Bu Y.	3 : 0
4	Fucsovics M.	Shapovalov D. (27)	0 : 3
5	Bublik A. (23)	Cilic M.	3 : 0
6	Sonego L.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	2 : 3
7	Borges N.	Holt B.	3 : 0
8	Moller E.	Paul T. (14)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (10)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Goffin D.	1 : 3
11	Brooksby J.	Vukic A.	3 : 2
12	Passaro F. (Q)	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
13	Diallo G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 1
14	Munar J.	Faria J. (LL)	3 : 1
15	Bergs Z.	Tseng C. H.	3 : 0
16	Gomez F. A. (Q)	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
18	Bautista-Agut R.	Fearnley J.	1 : 3
19	Monfils G.	Safiullin R.	2 : 3
20	Harris B. (LL)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
21	Humbert U. (22)	Walton A.	1 : 3
22	Kovacevic A.	Wong C. (Q)	0 : 3
23	Duckworth J. (LL)	Boyer T. (WC)	0 : 3
24	Prizmic D. (Q)	Rublev A. (15)	0 : 3
25	Khachanov K. (9)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	3 : 1
26	Dellien H.	Majchrzak K.	1 : 3
27	Riedi L. (Q)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
28	Arnaldi M.	Cerundolo F. (19)	2 : 3
29	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Muller A.	3 : 1
30	Altmaier D.	Medjedovic H.	3 : 2
31	Gaston H.	Mochizuki S. (Q)	0 : 3
32	O'Connell C.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
33	Djokovic N. (7)	Tien L.	3 : 0
34	Svajda Z. (Q)	Piros Z. (Q)	3 : 0
35	Norrie C.	Korda S. (RET.)	2 : 0
36	Comesana F.	Michelsen A. (28)	3 : 1
37	Tiafoe F. (17)	Nishioka Y.	3 : 0
38	Damm M. (Q)	Blanch Dar. (WC)	3 : 0
39	Struff J-L. (Q)	McDonald M.	3 : 1
40	Van De Zandschulp B.	Rune H. (11)	0 : 3
41	Mensik J. (16)	Jarry N.	3 : 0
42	Blanchet U. (Q)	Marozsan F.	3 : 1
43	Fonseca J.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 0
44	Nardi L.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
45	Nakashima B. (30)	De Jong J. (Q)	3 : 2
46	Kym J. (Q)	Quinn E.	3 : 1
47	Baez S.	Harris L. (Q)	0 : 3
48	Nava E. (WC)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
49	Shelton B. (6)	Buse I. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Carreno-Busta P.	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	3 : 0
51	Thompson J.	Moutet C.	3 : 1
52	Mannarino A.	Griekspoor T. (29)	3 : 0
53	Lehecka J. (20)	Coric B.	3 : 1
54	Ugo Carabelli C.	Etcheverry T. M.	0 : 3
55	Galan D. E. (Alt)	Collignon R.	0 : 3
56	Ofner S.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
57	Medvedev D. (13)	Bonzi B.	2 : 3
58	Navone M.	Giron M.	2 : 3
59	Carballes Baena R.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
60	Shevchenko A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	0 : 3
61	Darderi L. (32)	Hijikata R.	3 : 0
62	Dostanic S. (WC)	Spizzirri E. (WC)	0 : 3
63	Bellucci M.	Shang J. (RET.)	2 : 1
64	Opelka R.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Popyrin A.	3 : 0
2	Royer V.	Shapovalov D. (27)	1 : 3
3	Bublik A. (23)	Schoolkate T.	3 : 0
4	Borges N.	Paul T. (14)	2 : 3
5	Musetti L. (10)	Goffin D.	3 : 0
6	Brooksby J.	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
7	Diallo G. (31)	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Bergs Z. (WO.)	Draper J. (5)
9	Zverev A. (3)	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
10	Safiullin R.	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
11	Walton A.	Wong C.	1 : 3
12	Boyer T.	Rublev A. (15)	1 : 3
13	Khachanov K. (9)	Majchrzak K.	2 : 3
14	Riedi L.	Cerundolo F. (19)	3 : 2
15	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Altmaier D.	2 : 3
16	Mochizuki S.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
17	Djokovic N. (7)	Svajda Z.	3 : 1
18	Norrie C.	Comesana F.	3 : 1
19	Tiafoe F. (17)	Damm M.	3 : 1
20	Struff J-L.	Rune H. (11)	3 : 2
21	Mensik J. (16)	Blanchet U.	2 : 3
22	Fonseca J.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
23	Nakashima B. (30)	Kym J.	2 : 3
24	Harris L.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
25	Shelton B. (6)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Mannarino A.	1 : 3
27	Lehecka J. (20)	Etcheverry T. M.	3 : 1
28	Collignon R.	Ruud C. (12)	3 : 2
29	Bonzi B.	Giron M.	3 : 2
30	Rinderknech A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	3 : 2
31	Darderi L. (32)	Spizzirri E.	3 : 1
32	Bellucci M.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Shapovalov D. (27)	3 : 1
2	Bublik A. (23)	Paul T. (14)	3 : 2
3	Musetti L. (10)	Cobolli F. (RET.) (24)	2 : 0
4	Munar J.	Bergs Z.	3 : 0
5	Zverev A. (3)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	1 : 3
6	Wong C.	Rublev A. (15)	2 : 3
7	Majchrzak K. (RET.)	Riedi L.	0 : 0
8	Altmaier D. (RET.)	De Minaur A. (8)	1 : 2
9	Djokovic N. (7)	Norrie C.	3 : 1
10	Tiafoe F. (17)	Struff J-L.	0 : 3
11	Blanchet U.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
12	Kym J.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
13	Shelton B. (RET.) (6)	Mannarino A.	2 : 2
14	Lehecka J. (20)	Collignon R.	3 : 0
15	Bonzi B.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
16	Darderi L. (32)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A. (23)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (10)	Munar J.	3 : 0
3	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	Rublev A. (15)	3 : 0
4	Riedi L.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
5	Djokovic N. (7)	Struff J-L.	3 : 0
6	Machac T. (21)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
7	Mannarino A.	Lehecka J. (20)	1 : 3
8	Rinderknech A.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Musetti L. (10)	3 : 0
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	De Minaur A. (8)	3 : 1
3	Djokovic N. (7)	Fritz T. (4)	3 : 1
4	Lehecka J. (20)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	3 : 1
2	Djokovic N. (7)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

1 : 3