Toufik Sahtali vs Luca Castagnola – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:1
27/02/2026 at 05:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 7, hard - Quarter-finals

Match Stats

Last 10 balls
33

Chances of winning


Toufik Sahtali
45.6%
Luca Castagnola
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.9% 47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6% 55.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toufik Sahtali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toufik Sahtali's form might have worsened.
  • Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luca Castagnola's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toufik Sahtali than the current prediction. (-1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+1%)
  • Toufik Sahtali - Luca Castagnola Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.04
    (1.73)

    1.71
    (1.94)
    7.6%
    (9.3%)
    What is the prediction for Toufik Sahtali - Luca Castagnola?
  • Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sahtali will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Castagnola will win (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Castagnola (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Sahtali is ranked ATP: 705. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 670.
    • Both players have been playing unpredictably.
    • In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
    • The players have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Toufik Sahtali
    Latest results of Luca Castagnola
    Draw
    2026

    1/16-finals
    1Donnet E. (1)Sickenberger T.0 : 2
    2de Marchi A.M'Chich A.2 : 1
    3Rybkin S.Massellani S.0 : 2
    4Mikovic M.Ostapenkov D. (RET.) (8)1 : 0
    5Bennani R. (RET.) (3)Sahtali T.0 : 0
    6Rivet M.Branger L.1 : 2
    7Herrmann T. (RET.)Becroft I.0 : 1
    8Gribaldo M.Castagnola L. (6)0 : 2
    9Sakellaridis D. (7)Mecarelli M.0 : 2
    10Tikhomirov M.Barsukov N.0 : 2
    11Corbinais S.Dullinger V.2 : 1
    12Rapagnetta D.Kivattsev K. (4)0 : 2
    13Lee K. (RET.) (5)Marino P.0 : 0
    14Vankan M.Trifi A.0 : 2
    15Shepp A.Longwe-Smit T.2 : 0
    16Karol M.Zhukov M. (RET.) (2)0 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Sickenberger T.de Marchi A.0 : 2
    2Massellani S.Mikovic M.1 : 2
    3Sahtali T.Branger L.2 : 0
    4Becroft I.Castagnola L. (6)1 : 2
    5Mecarelli M.Barsukov N.0 : 2
    6Corbinais S.Kivattsev K. (4)0 : 2
    7Marino P.Trifi A.1 : 2
    8Shepp A.Karol M.2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1de Marchi A.Mikovic M.2 : 0
    2Sahtali T.Castagnola L. (6)2 : 1
    3Barsukov N.Kivattsev K. (4)2 : 0
    4Trifi A.Shepp A.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1de Marchi A.Sahtali T.2 : 0
    2Barsukov N.Trifi A.2 : 1

    Final
    1de Marchi A.Barsukov N.0 : 2