Lorient vs Toulouse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1
Result
1:1
09/11/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 12
  • Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
israelIsrael5 SPORT Israel
italyItalyLigue 1+
japanJapanDAZN Japan
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
portugalPortugalSport TV7
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, S Sport 2, Tivibu Spor 1
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLigue 1+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamK+, ON Plus, TV 360

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.361.41
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
106
Shots on target
22
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
81% (314/387)85% (349/413)
Yellow Cards
04
Expected Goals (xG)
1.361.41
xG on target (xGOT)
1.010.94
Total shots
106
Shots on target
22
Shots off target
61
Blocked Shots
23
Shots inside the Box
55
Shots outside the Box
51
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2413
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
186
Passes
81% (314/387)85% (349/413)
Long passes
46% (19/41)58% (19/33)
Passes in final third
72% (78/108)64% (62/97)
Crosses
9% (2/22)7% (1/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.570.66
Throw-ins
1024
Fouls
618
Tackles
65% (13/20)41% (7/17)
Duels won
5847
Clearances
1523
Interceptions
1011
Errors leading to shot
21
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
0.941.01
Goals prevented
-0.060.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 32', Cresswell C. 🟨,
  • 39', Casseres C. 🟨,
  • 44', 1 - 0, Pagis P. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 60', Abergel L. ↓, Cadiou N. ↑,
  • 65', 1 - 1, Sidibe D. (Pen),
  • 66', Francis A. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
  • 69', Pagis P. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
  • 69', Tosin A. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
  • 79', Vossah A. 🟨,
  • 80', Mvuka Mugisha J. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
  • 80', Karim D. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
  • 80', Emersonn ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
  • 80', McKenzie M. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
  • 86', Messali R. 🟨,
  • 90', Gboho Y. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,

Chances of winning


Lorient
30.6%		Draw
29.1%		Toulouse
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
30.7% 28.7% 40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3% 28.4% 41.1%

Lorient - Toulouse Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 3.14 ↑
(3.08)		 3.3 ↑
(3.29)		 2.39 ↑
(2.33)		 3.9%
(5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Lorient - Toulouse?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). Toulouse will win (votes: 15 - 57.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 19.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 38.7% – 76.7%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.75 - Toulouse (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • DC - Lorient (1.59) (votes: 1 - 33.3%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toulouse will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Lorient (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Toulouse (votes: 6 - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 1.
    • Lorient has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Lorient: Dieng B. (Injury) Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Faye A. (Foot Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Sanusi T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Toure I. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Donnum A. (Yellow Cards) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1.2:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.7:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lorient - Toulouse were as follows:
    28.04.2024 Lorient - Toulouse 1:2
    03.12.2023 Toulouse - Lorient 1:1
    23.04.2023 Lorient - Toulouse 0:1
    Latest results of Lorient
    02.11.2025 Lens - Lorient 3:0 ✺
    29.10.2025 Lorient - Paris Saint-Germain 1:1 ✺
    26.10.2025 Angers - Lorient 2:0 ✺
    19.10.2025 Lorient - Brest 3:3 ✺
    03.10.2025 Paris FC - Lorient 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Toulouse
    02.11.2025 Toulouse - Le Havre 0:0 ✺
    29.10.2025 Toulouse - Rennes 2:2 ✺
    25.10.2025 Monaco - Toulouse 1:0 ✺
    19.10.2025 Toulouse - Metz 4:0 ✺
    05.10.2025 Lyon - Toulouse 1:2 ✺
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Lens18141332:131943
    2PSG18133240:152542
    3Marseille18112541:192235
    4Lyon18103527:18933
    5Lille18102633:25832
    6Rennes1887330:25531
    7Strasbourg1883728:22627
    8Toulouse1875629:23626
    9Monaco1872928:33-523
    10Brest1864824:29-522
    11Angers1864820:25-522
    12Lorient1857623:30-722
    13Paris FC1854924:32-819
    14Le Havre1847716:24-819
    15Nice18531021:35-1418
    16Nantes18351017:30-1314
    17Auxerre18331214:28-1412
    18Metz18331219:40-2112

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

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