Lorient vs Toulouse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1
Result
1:1
09/11/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 12
  • Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
israelIsrael5 SPORT Israel
italyItalyLigue 1+
japanJapanDAZN Japan
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
portugalPortugalSport TV7
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, S Sport 2, Tivibu Spor 1
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLigue 1+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamK+, ON Plus, TV 360

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.361.41
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
106
Shots on target
22
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
81% (314/387)85% (349/413)
Yellow Cards
04
Expected Goals (xG)
1.361.41
xG on target (xGOT)
1.010.94
Total shots
106
Shots on target
22
Shots off target
61
Blocked Shots
23
Shots inside the Box
55
Shots outside the Box
51
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2413
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
186
Passes
81% (314/387)85% (349/413)
Long passes
46% (19/41)58% (19/33)
Passes in final third
72% (78/108)64% (62/97)
Crosses
9% (2/22)7% (1/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.570.66
Throw-ins
1024
Fouls
618
Tackles
65% (13/20)41% (7/17)
Duels won
5847
Clearances
1523
Interceptions
1011
Errors leading to shot
21
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
0.941.01
Goals prevented
-0.060.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 32', Cresswell C. 🟨,
  • 39', Casseres C. 🟨,
  • 44', 1 - 0, Pagis P. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 60', Abergel L. ↓, Cadiou N. ↑,
  • 65', 1 - 1, Sidibe D. (Pen),
  • 66', Francis A. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
  • 69', Pagis P. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
  • 69', Tosin A. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
  • 79', Vossah A. 🟨,
  • 80', Mvuka Mugisha J. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
  • 80', Karim D. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
  • 80', Emersonn ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
  • 80', McKenzie M. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
  • 86', Messali R. 🟨,
  • 90', Gboho Y. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,

Chances of winning


Lorient
30.6%		Draw
29.1%		Toulouse
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
30.7% 28.7% 40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3% 28.4% 41.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
  • Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
    •

    Lorient - Toulouse Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.14 ↑
    (3.08)    		 3.3 ↑
    (3.29)    		 2.39 ↑
    (2.33)    		 3.9%
    (5.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Lorient - Toulouse?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). Toulouse will win (votes: 15 - 57.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 19.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 38.7% – 76.7%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Lorient (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Toulouse (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.75 - Toulouse (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • DC - Lorient (1.59) (votes: 1 - 33.3%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Lorient (votes: 2 - 20%). Toulouse (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 1.
    • Lorient has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Lorient: Dieng B. (Injury) Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Faye A. (Foot Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Sanusi T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Toure I. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Donnum A. (Yellow Cards) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1.2:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.7:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lorient - Toulouse were as follows:
    28.04.2024 Lorient - Toulouse 1:2
    03.12.2023 Toulouse - Lorient 1:1
    23.04.2023 Lorient - Toulouse 0:1
    Latest results of Lorient
    02.11.2025 Lens - Lorient 3:0 ✺
    29.10.2025 Lorient - Paris Saint-Germain 1:1 ✺
    26.10.2025 Angers - Lorient 2:0 ✺
    19.10.2025 Lorient - Brest 3:3 ✺
    03.10.2025 Paris FC - Lorient 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Toulouse
    02.11.2025 Toulouse - Le Havre 0:0 ✺
    29.10.2025 Toulouse - Rennes 2:2 ✺
    25.10.2025 Monaco - Toulouse 1:0 ✺
    19.10.2025 Toulouse - Metz 4:0 ✺
    05.10.2025 Lyon - Toulouse 1:2 ✺
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG24183353:193457
    2Lens24172545:212453
    3Lyon24143739:261345
    4Marseille24134751:331843
    5Lille24124837:31640
    6Rennes24117638:35340
    7Monaco24114940:36437
    8Strasbourg24105940:31935
    9Brest2496932:34-233
    10Lorient2489734:38-433
    11Toulouse2487933:28531
    12Angers24851122:30-829
    13Le Havre24681020:30-1026
    14Paris FC24681028:40-1226
    15Nice24661230:44-1424
    16Auxerre24461419:35-1618
    17Nantes24451522:41-1917
    18Metz24341722:53-3113

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

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