Result
1:0
21/03/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 27
- Referee: Paradis G. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Brazil | Caze TV |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Israel | 5 SPORT Israel, Sport 5 Max |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | FOX One |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV7 |
 Romania | Voyo |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.39 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (363/438) | 89% (529/597) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.39 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 0.29 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (363/438) | 89% (529/597) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (18/36) | 49% (32/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (87/129) | 72% (68/94) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 14% (3/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 45% (5/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.29 | 1.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.29 | 0.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 5', Hidalgo S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 48', Cadiou N. 🟨,
- 65', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
- 65', Hidalgo S. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
- 71', Faye A. 🟨,
- 74', Dieng B. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
- 74', Karim D. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
- 79', Le Bris T. ↓, Katseris P. ↑,
- 82', 1 - 0, Emersonn ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
- 85', Sidibe D. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
- 86', Donnum A. 🟨,
- 90+11', Makengo J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toulouse
51% | Draw
28.5% | Lorient
20.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
Toulouse - Lorient Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.87 ↓
(2) |
3.34 ↑
(2.95) |
4.62 ↑
(4.58) |
5.1%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Toulouse - Lorient?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 19 - 70.4%). Lorient will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 53.2% – 87.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Toulouse (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Lorient (4.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Lorient (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- In this match, Toulouse is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Toulouse: Cresswell C.
(Muscle Injury)
Dominguez A.
(Injury)
Francis A.
(Broken Leg)
Magri F.
(Knee Injury)
Messali R.
(Injury)
Methalie D.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Lorient: Abergel L.
(Ankle Injury)
Fadiga B.
(Muscle Injury)
Igor Silva
(Injury)
Meite B.
(Yellow Cards)
Pagis P.
(Red Card)
Toure I.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.3:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Lorient?
Toulouse has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lorient won against Toulouse?
Lorient has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toulouse - Lorient were as follows:
09.11.2025
Lorient
-
Toulouse
1:1
28.04.2024
Lorient
-
Toulouse
1:2
03.12.2023
Toulouse
-
Lorient
1:1
23.04.2023
Lorient
-
Toulouse
0:1
Latest results of Toulouse
Latest results of Lorient
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 58:22 | 36 | 60 |
| 2 | Lens | 27 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 54:24 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Marseille | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 54:35 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Lyon | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 47 |
| 5 | Lille | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 42:34 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Monaco | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Rennes | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 43:37 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43:33 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38:32 | 6 | 37 |
| 10 | Lorient | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 37:41 | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Brest | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 34:39 | -5 | 36 |
| 12 | Angers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 32 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 32:43 | -11 | 31 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 22:35 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 | Nice | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:52 | -20 | 27 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 22:36 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Nantes | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:45 | -21 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 25:60 | -35 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
