Result
4:0
19/10/2025 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 8
- Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 1, Now Player |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.34 | 0.08 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 2 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (272/325) | 90% (545/608) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.34 | 0.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.32 | 0.55 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 2 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 1 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 5 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (272/325) | 90% (545/608) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (11/23) | 48% (29/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (64/98) | 73% (54/74) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 47% (7/15) | 0% (0/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.18 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 63% (12/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.55 | 3.32 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.55 | -0.68 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 2', 1 - 0, Magri F. ⚽, Emersonn (A),
- 8', 2 - 0, Donnum A. (Pen),
- 34', Abuashvili G. 🟨,
- 37', Magri F. 🟨,
- 45+2', Sane S. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Abuashvili G. ↓, Yegbe T. ↑,
- 64', Magri F. ↓, McKenzie M. ↑,
- 64', Sidibe D. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
- 71', Traore B. ↓, Deminguet J. ↑,
- 71', Ballo-Toure F. ↓, Tsitaishvili G. ↑,
- 75', Emersonn 🟨,
- 76', Emersonn ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
- 76', Methalie D. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
- 79', 3 - 0, Gboho Y. ⚽, Cresswell C. (A),
- 83', Gboho Y. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
- 83', Hein G. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
- 84', Diallo H. ↓, Asoro J. ↑,
- 84', 4 - 0, Cresswell C. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
Chances of winning
Toulouse
61.9% | Draw
22.5% | Metz
15.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-9.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toulouse that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
Toulouse - Metz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.55 ↓
(1.56) |
4.27 ↑
(4.04) |
6.15 ↑
(5.96) |
4.1%
(5.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Toulouse - Metz?
Users Predictions:
39 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 24 - 61.5%). Metz will win (votes: 3 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 46.2% – 76.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 6 - 60%). Metz (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Toulouse (1.87) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH -0.75 - Toulouse (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Metz (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.
- Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
- Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toulouse is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Messali R.
(Ankle Injury)
Schmidt N.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J.
(Knee Injury)
Mbaye M.
(Foot Injury)
Mboula U.
(Hamstring Injury)
Stambouli B.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Metz: Ballo-Toure F.
(Neck Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Metz?
Toulouse has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Metz won against Toulouse?
Metz has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toulouse - Metz were as follows:
14.01.2024
Metz
-
Toulouse
0:1
01.10.2023
Toulouse
-
Metz
3:0
Latest results of Toulouse
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 53:19 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | Lens | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 45:21 | 24 | 53 |
| 3 | Lyon | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 39:26 | 13 | 45 |
| 4 | Marseille | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 51:33 | 18 | 43 |
| 5 | Lille | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 37:31 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Rennes | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38:35 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Monaco | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 40:36 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 35 |
| 9 | Brest | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 32:34 | -2 | 33 |
| 10 | Lorient | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 34:38 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 33:28 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Angers | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 22:30 | -8 | 29 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 20:30 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
| 15 | Nice | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 30:44 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19:35 | -16 | 18 |
| 17 | Nantes | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 22:41 | -19 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 24 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22:53 | -31 | 13 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
