Result
3:4
15/03/2026 at 12:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 26
- Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Brazil | Caze TV |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 6, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Georgia | Setanta Sports 2 |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | FOX One |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Romania | Voyo |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 6 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.42 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (441/499) | 87% (432/496) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.42 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.86 | 1.77 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (441/499) | 87% (432/496) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (28/55) | 47% (21/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (85/115) | 74% (107/145) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (6/19) | 43% (6/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 1.34 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.77 | 2.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -2.23 | -0.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 3)
- 6', 0 - 1, Donnum A. ⚽, Demba P. (A),
- 14', 0 - 2, Gboho Y. ⚽, Hidalgo S. (A),
- 30', 1 - 2, Mbala N. ⚽, Tsitaishvili G. (A),
- 31', 2 - 2, Kouao K. ⚽,
- 34', Vossah A. 🟨,
- 45+3', 2 - 3, Gboho Y. ⚽, Kamanzi W. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 61', Restes G. ↓, Haug K. ↑,
- 65', Vossah A. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
- 65', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
- 70', Mbala N. ↓, Diallo H. ↑,
- 70', Deminguet J. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
- 71', Kouao K. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
- 76', Mboula U. ↓, Yegbe T. ↑,
- 76', Hidalgo S. ↓, Koumbassa S. ↑,
- 88', 3 - 3, Abuashvili G. ⚽,
- 90', Sarr B. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
- 90+5', Kamanzi W. 🟨,
- 90+9', 3 - 4, Sauer M. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
- 90+11', Emersonn 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/2jruswua
Chances of winning
Metz
25.1% | Draw
27.7% | Toulouse
47.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Metz - Toulouse Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.82 ↓
(3.87) |
3.43 ↑
(3.38) |
2.02 ↑
(1.98) |
4.8%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Metz - Toulouse?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Metz will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Toulouse will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 29.2% – 76.6%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.5 - Toulouse (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Toulouse (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toulouse will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 0.
- Metz has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Toulouse is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Toulouse is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J.
(Knee Injury)
Melieres C.
(Injury)
Stambouli B.
(Injury)
Sy P.
(Concussion)
Traore B.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Casseres C.
(Injury)
Cresswell C.
(Muscle Injury)
Francis A.
(Broken Leg)
Magri F.
(Knee Injury)
Messali R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Metz: Diallo H.
(Inactive)
Kvilitaia G.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Metz won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 0.9:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Metz won against Toulouse?
Metz has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Metz?
Toulouse has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Metz - Toulouse were as follows:
19.10.2025
Toulouse
-
Metz
4:0
14.01.2024
Metz
-
Toulouse
0:1
01.10.2023
Toulouse
-
Metz
3:0
Latest results of Toulouse
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 58:22 | 36 | 60 |
| 2 | Lens | 27 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 54:24 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Marseille | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 54:35 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Lyon | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 47 |
| 5 | Lille | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 42:34 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Monaco | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Rennes | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 43:37 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43:33 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38:32 | 6 | 37 |
| 10 | Lorient | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 37:41 | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Brest | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 34:39 | -5 | 36 |
| 12 | Angers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 32 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 32:43 | -11 | 31 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 22:35 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 | Nice | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:52 | -20 | 27 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 22:36 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Nantes | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:45 | -21 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 25:60 | -35 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
